There is quite a lot of gloom on this issue, but also some hope. One is that Americans agree far more across the aisle than they know. For example, large majorities support specific policies that would address climate change and guns even as their reps don't enact them

But polarisation also has also seeped into corporate America. One result is that companies that are 'politically divergent' are much less likely to join forces

The economy suffers not just from the resulting dysfunction on capital hill stemming from ideological polarisation (witness the latest government shutdown, now nearing) its fifth week

Polarisation is rising rapidly in the US

The US is much more ideologically polarised today than in the 1970s, and Americans are far more distrusting and disliking of 'the other side' over the period

This should do the trick: on.ft.com/49e8DkC

The October meeting could well be one of the rare occasions when the market beats the superforecasters

But perhaps not. The market seems overconfident, especially since numerous FOMC voters have been sounding notes of caution & there is a CPI reading to come

Free-to-read: on.ft.com/43dXmgu

What is interesting is that there has not been such a wide gap this close to a Fed rate meeting between the market and superforecasters

Indeed, besides the pricing ructions around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, they have not deviated to such a large degree -- see 2023 comparison 👇

The market should take note since superforecasters have consistently had the edge in anticipating what the FOMC will do

There is typically unanimity about the Fed decision -- the outperformance is instead based on superforecaster's higher confidence in the eventual outcome -- see 2025 fig👇