It’s fairly stale data that tells us little about where the economy is heading into the final month of the year & the critical holiday spending season. #Econ #EconSky

One word….irony

US September Jobs Report: If one increases trade taxes, demand tends decline and in its wake employment falls in sectors closely linked trade dependent sectors. #Econ #EconSky

FYI: the Sept jobs report had a 80.2% participant response rate which is unusually high. Probability of significant downward adjustment is low.

Moreover, the collection rate in the September report on the part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was 80.2%, which implies a lower probability of major revisions in coming months. #Economists #Econ #EconSky

While, the composition of the September jobs report was titled towards lower wage paying jobs, as expansionary fiscal policy takes hold in early 2026, we anticipate a rebound in the higher paying categories. #Econ #EconSky

The unemployment rate rises to 4.4%. Three month average of employment now 62K. This labor report tends to provide support to those that will want to pause the Fed's rate cut campaign. #Econ #EconSky

FOMC Minutes: Given the delay of the October-November Jobs data until Tuesday December 16, 2025 it means the fog of uncertainty for the Fed will have only partially eased. Under such conditions the Fed should not cut rates. #Econ #EconSky