Joe Brusuelas
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joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Joe Brusuelas
@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
2.2K followers 990 following 1.1K posts
Chief Economist RSM. Board of advisors UCLA Anderson School Economic Forecast. Member Wall Street Journal forecast board. Named 2023 best interest rate forecaster by Bloomberg. Dodgers fan
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joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Will be appearing on @ABCNewsLive with @eschulze at 5:30 PM ET to talk about the American affordability crisis that currently defines the economy.
December 9, 2025 at 8:13 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good afternoon. My preview of the American October & November jobs report.

#econ #econsky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/october-and-...
October and November jobs preview: A most unusual report
We expect a net increase in total employment of 120,000 over the two months, including an increase of 80,000 jobs in the October report and a slowing to 40,000 in November.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:25 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
A good automation & augmentation morning from Washington DC where one would think the good folks running this country might be interested in such developments: State of AI: life in 2030 via ⁦‪@FT‬⁩ #Econ #EconSky

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... The State of AI: life in 2030
The State of AI: life in 2030
Expect a world of robots, robotaxis and AI haves and have-nots
giftarticle.ft.com
December 9, 2025 at 1:15 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. I’m expecting multiple dissents at the FOMC policy meeting as the fog lifts & the committee cuts rates. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/fomc-preview...
FOMC preview: Factions at the Fed as the fog begins to lift
Expect a contentious Fed meeting next week, with the central bank lowering its policy rate by 25 basis points.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:37 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
My FOMC preview. I expect a 25bps rate cut & multiple dissents as the Fed factions attempt to look through the fog. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/fomc-preview...
FOMC preview: Factions at the Fed as the fog begins to lift
Expect a contentious Fed meeting next week, with the central bank lowering its policy rate by 25 basis points.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
December 6, 2025 at 3:56 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
My discussion with @nytimes on the condition of the median American household heading into the holiday season: Consumer Prices Rose Slightly in September www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/b... via @NYTimes
Consumer Prices Rose Slightly in September
www.nytimes.com
December 5, 2025 at 6:48 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
For those looking closely at PCE inflation here is the data on the PCE supercore which is up 3.259% from one year ago and is up 1pp above is pre pandemic average. This is what some of the hawks on the FOMC focus on when making policy judgements. #Econ #EconSky
December 5, 2025 at 4:14 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. Fresh off a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India the Indian Rupee is likely to depreciate further. In addition it’s far past time for further liberalization of the Indian currency regime. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: Indian rupee depreciation
India’s rupee broke above a benchmark barrier of 90 rupees per dollar this week, continuing a 10-year weakening trend.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
December 5, 2025 at 1:20 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Winter of discontent, real wages and affordability.

The discussion around affordability from our point of view is a function of supply and time. #Econ #EconSky
December 4, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Reposted by Joe Brusuelas
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Real wages (after inflation) were growing at 2.0% last year. Now it’s 0.8% — “clearly playing into what the majority of American households would define as an affordability crisis.”

@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
December 4, 2025 at 11:21 AM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. My take on affordability which is a function of supply and time.

Unfortunately, supply side policies to facilitate lower prices are not in the cards anytime soon. #Econ #EconSky

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: Winter of discontent, real wages and affordability
In this winter of discontent, there is little in the near term that will provide much relief to households and firms that populate the lower spur of the K-shaped economy.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
December 4, 2025 at 12:28 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Its a K shaped economy and labor market as the Nov ADP private payroll estimate indicated a 32K decline in hiring. #Econ #EconSky
December 3, 2025 at 1:27 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. My note on why the recent correction in equity values has likely run its course. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: Equity market downturn has likely run its course
Our preferred metric of equity market performance implies that the recent market downturn, led by artificial intelligence firms, has reached its end, or is about to.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
December 3, 2025 at 12:07 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. A look at tge ⁦‪@RSMUSLLP‬⁩ US Financial Conditions Index which remans accommodative to growth amid consideration of risk among investors. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: Financial conditions easing amid reassessment of risk
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has drifted lower in recent weeks, with its subcomponents showing greater volatility and lackluster results.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
December 1, 2025 at 2:26 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving…except that turkey. He has got to go.
#Econ #EconSky #Thanksgiving.
November 27, 2025 at 1:26 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
US September retail sales arrive soft. Up 0.2% m/m in the topline with the control group that feeds into GDP declining 0.1%. September PPI rises 2.7% y/y as wholesale inflation continues to rise. #Econ #EconSky
November 25, 2025 at 1:39 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. My 2026 US Economic Outlook. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/rsms-u-s-out...
RSM’s U.S. outlook for 2026: An acceleration in growth
We expect economic growth to rebound to 2.2% in 2026, with the PCE inflation rate reaching 2.7% and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:56 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
My thoughts on the US jobs market, inflation & the path of Fed policy via ⁦‪@CNNConnect‬⁩ the World - Joe Brusuelas/ CTW. #Econ #EconSky

video.snapstream.net/Play/3XYzC7g...
Connect the World - Joe Brusuelas/ CTW
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November 21, 2025 at 3:23 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Please join me at 9:30 AM ET/2:30PM BT & 6:30PM in Dubai on @cnni where I will discuss the day in the global economy with @BeckyCNN
November 21, 2025 at 1:16 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
A look at US 20-24 youth unemployment across the past four economic expansions. Take a look. One might be surprised with what one finds. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: Younger workers are doing just fine overall
The current unemployment rate of workers who are 20 to 24 years old stands at 8.6%, below the rate of recent economic expansions.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:59 AM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
US September Jobs Report: trade and tariffs did rear their ugly head in the report. The one glaringly bad event of the report was transportation and warehousing saw a lost 25K. #Econ #EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 3:05 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
My thoughts on the solid US September Jobs Report via ⁦‪@WSJ‬⁩: U.S. job growth defied expectations in September. #Econ #EconSky #Economists

www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Hiring Defied Expectations in September, With 119,000 New Jobs
Job growth accelerated in the month heading into the government shutdown.
www.wsj.com
November 20, 2025 at 2:56 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
US September Jobs Report Takeaway: Modest gains in employment will support the same in overall economic activity, which implies that a December rate cut is neither warranted nor necessary. #Econ #EconSky #Economists
November 20, 2025 at 2:51 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
US September Jobs Report: increase of 119K with a net two month revision of -33K. Total increase in employment of 86,000 over the past three months once revisions are accounted for. #Econ #EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 1:35 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Worthy of your time: The Economics of Income Mobility by Roland Fryer #Econ #EconSky

www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
Opinion | The Economics of Income Mobility
I believe in the American dream, but the data show that some people have an advantage in realizing it.
www.wsj.com
November 19, 2025 at 11:19 PM