Jeremy Barofsky
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jbarofsky.bsky.social
Jeremy Barofsky
@jbarofsky.bsky.social
1.4K followers 290 following 76 posts
Associate Research Professor, Better Government Lab, Georgetown University, Interested in the economics of health and poverty; formerly @ideas42 @Brookings and @USCPrice Schaeffer Center, alum of @HarvardChanSPH & @BU
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Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
brendanvduke.bsky.social
New 25-page @centeronbudget.bsky.social paper from me summarizing the distributional, fiscal, and economic effects of One Big Beautiful Bill's tax cuts and cuts to health care, food assistance, student loans, and climate investments. 🧵

www.cbpp.org/research/fed...
Republican Megabill Trades Essential Support to Low-Income People for Skewed Tax Cuts
The sprawling megabill passed by the Republican-controlled Congress and signed by President Trump in July 2025 will redistribute trillions of dollars upward over the next decade, making it harder for ...
www.cbpp.org
February 3, 2026 at 2:52 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
stevevladeck.bsky.social
Even if you don't have time to read all 83 pages of Judge Reyes's opinion barring the Trump administration from rescinding Temporary Protected Status for 350,000+ Haitians, please at least check out the four-page introduction.

It's a tour de force:

storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
"On December 2, 1783, then-Commander-in-Chief George Washington penned: “America is open to receive not only the Opulent & respected Stranger, but the oppressed & persecuted of all Nations & Religions.”1 More than two centuries later, Congress reaffirmed President Washington’s vision by establishing the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program. See 8 U.S.C. § 1254a (TPS statute). It provides humanitarian relief to foreign nationals in the United States who come from disaster-stricken countries. It also brings in substantial revenue, with TPS holders generating $5.2 billion in taxes annually. See Part VI. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem has a different take. [screenshot of tweet]. So says the official responsible for overseeing the TPS program. And one of those (her word) “damn” countries is Haiti. Relevant here, three days before making the above post, Secretary Noem announced she would terminate Haiti’s TPS designation as of February 3, 2026. See 90 Fed. Reg. 54733 (Nov. 28, 2025) (Termination). Plaintiffs are five Haitian TPS holders. They are not, it emerges, “killers, leeches, or entitlement junkies.” They are instead: Fritz Emmanuel Lesly Miot, a neuroscientist researching Alzheimer’s disease, Dkt. 90 (Second Am. Compl. (SAC)) ¶ 1; Rudolph Civil, a software engineer at a national bank, id. ¶ 2; Marlene Gail Noble, a laboratory assistant in a toxicology department, id. ¶ 3; Marica Merline Laguerre, a college economics major, id. ¶ 4; and Vilbrun Dorsainvil, a full-time registered nurse, id. ¶ 5. They claim that Secretary Noem’s decision violates the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), 5 U.S.C. § 706(2), and the Fifth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. The Government counters that the Court does not have jurisdiction, and, in any case, the Secretary did not violate the law. Plaintiffs seek to stay the Secretary’s decision under 5 U.S.C. § 705 pending the outcome of this litigation. See Dkt. 81 (§ 705 Mot.). To decide their motion, the Court considers first whether it has jurisdiction. It does. See Part II. It then considers: whether Plaintiffs have a substantial likelihood of success on the merits; whether they will be irreparably harmed absent a stay; and whether a merged balance of the equities and public interest analysis favors a stay. See Part III. Each element favors Plaintiffs. See Parts IV, V, and VI. Plaintiffs charge that Secretary Noem preordained her termination decision and did so because of hostility to nonwhite immigrants. This seems substantially likely. Secretary Noem has terminated every TPS country designation to have reached her desk—twelve countries up, twelve countries down. See Section IV.A.2. Her conclusion that Haiti (a majority nonwhite country) faces merely “concerning” conditions cannot be squared with the “perfect storm of suffering” and “staggering” “humanitarian toll” described in page-after-page of the Certified Administrative Record (CAR). See Section IV.A.3.a. She ignored Congress’s requirement that she “review the conditions” in Haiti only “after” consulting “with appropriate agencies.” 8 U.S.C. § 1254a(b)(3)(A); see Section IV.A.1. Indeed, she did not consult other agencies at all. See id. Her “national interest” analysis focuses on Haitians outside the United States or here illegally, ignoring that Haitian TPS holders already live here, and legally so. See Section IV.A.3.b. And though she states that the analysis must include “economic considerations,” she ignores altogether the billions Haitian TPS holders contribute to the economy. See id. The Government’s primary response is that the TPS statute gives the Secretary unbounded discretion to make whatever determination she wants, any way she wants. And, yes, the statute does grant her some discretion. But not unbounded discretion. To the contrary, Congress passed the TPS statute to standardize the then ad hoc temporary protection system—to replace executive whim with statutory predictability. See Section I.A. As to irreparable harm, the Government contends that, at most, the harms to Haitian TPS holders are speculative. But the Department of State (State) warns [screenshot] Dkt. 100 (§ 705 Reply) at 20–21.4 “Do not travel to Haiti for any reason” does not exactly scream, as Secretary Noem concluded, suitable for return. And so, the Government studiously does not argue that Plaintiffs will suffer no harm if removed to Haiti. Instead, it argues Plaintiffs will not certainly suffer irreparable harm because DHS might not remove them. But this fails to take Secretary Noem at her word: “WE DON’T WANT THEM. NOT ONE.” See Section IV.B.2.b. Finally, the balance of equities and public interest favor a stay. The Government does not cite any reason termination must occur post haste. Secretary Noem complains of strains unlawful immigrants place on our immigration-enforcement system. Her answer? Turn 352,959 lawful immigrants into unlawful immigrants overnight. She complains of strains to our economy. Her answer? Turn employed lawful immigrants who contribute billions in taxes into the legally unemployable. She complains of strains to our healthcare system. Her answer? Turn the insured into the uninsured. This approach is many things—in the public interest is not one of them. For the reasons below, the Court GRANTS Plaintiffs’ Renewed Motion for a Stay Under 5 U.S.C. § 705, Dkt. 81.
February 3, 2026 at 1:06 AM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
timothynoah.bsky.social
This is now without question the biggest politico-financial scandal in United States history. Teapot Dome was trivial in comparison.
timothynoah.bsky.social Timothy Noah @timothynoah.bsky.social · 21h
I was a little late to catch up with this WSJ kleptocracy story. We already knew Sheikh Tahnoon dropped $2b on World Liberty Financial to get Trump to let UAE import advanced chips. Now we learn Tahnoon also purchased 49 percent of World Liberty Financial.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
‘Spy Sheikh’ Bought Secret Stake in Trump Company
$500 million investment for 49% of World Liberty came months before U.A.E. won access to tightly guarded American AI chips.
www.wsj.com
February 2, 2026 at 8:21 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
bchrisinger.bsky.social
Massive administrative changes are underway for SNAP. A good summary in @jama.com Health Forum:

jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... 🥗 🛟
Screenshot from JAMA Health Forum website: “Changes to SNAP Under HR 1 and the Implications for Food Insecurity”
February 2, 2026 at 5:47 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
deanbaker13.bsky.social
Another brave person in Minneapolis standing up to Trump and his goon squads
www.cnn.com/2026/01/28/u...
Woman who recorded shooting of Alex Pretti through car windshield speaks out | CNN
Anderson speaks with Kayla Schultz who recorded the shooting of Alex Pretti through a car windshield. She’s now speaking out for the first time. More from their conversation tomorrow night at 8p ET.
www.cnn.com
January 29, 2026 at 5:32 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
donmoyn.bsky.social
New at Can We Still Govern: Here is one thing I wish more people understood about government. There is a lot of rent-seeking by private vendors in our social safety net. Trump's policies will make this worse.
@lukef.bsky.social breaks it down. 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-means-...
The Means-Testing Industrial Complex
The vendors getting rich from putting administrative burdens on the poor
donmoynihan.substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 2:07 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
aaronsojourner.org
We're gonna do a pathway to citizenship. Such a big, beautiful pathway.

If you came here, worked hard, didn't hurt people. Pay a fine, like Pres. Reagan said: $185. Then you're right with the law.

Red carpet path leads up to the WH East Wing.

Welcoming people from all over to the American dream.
January 13, 2026 at 12:55 AM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
warren.senate.gov
The rule Donald Trump revoked would have saved 13,000 lives per year.
January 27, 2026 at 8:31 PM
jbarofsky.bsky.social
Not mentioned: the suspended rule is projected to cause 13,000 preventable deaths / year from lower nursing home staff.

"..in early August, the industry began making donations that over the course of weeks would eventually total nearly $4.8 million to MAGA Inc...."

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/27/u...
After Donations, Trump Administration Revoked Rule Requiring More Nursing Home Staff
www.nytimes.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:39 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
danshafer.bsky.social
NEW from @markbecker.bsky.social, who sang in the Green Bay Boys Choir with Alex Pretti:

"We cannot let Alex’s death be in vain. Speak up. Stand up. Tell the truth. Do not be silent. This ends only when we decide that enough is enough."
www.therecombobulationarea.news/p/there-are-...
There are no "both sides" to the execution of Alex Pretti
"Rational Revolution" host Mark Becker, a former Republican, was in the Green Bay Boys Choir with Alex Pretti, and shares his thoughts on the shooting.
www.therecombobulationarea.news
January 27, 2026 at 8:20 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
billwalter.bsky.social
www.rawstory.com/trump-immigr...
Massive union overseeing Border Patrol demands ouster of Kristi Noem and Stephen Miller
A massive union that represents some of President Donald Trump's immigration agents called on two of the administration's top officials to resign following the killing of an ICU nurse in Minneapolis o...
www.rawstory.com
January 27, 2026 at 3:37 AM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
ddayen.bsky.social
Here's our report from inside the Senate Democratic caucus, where the strategy to block DHS funding is set and the list of demands is expanding.
prospect.org/2026/01/26/i...
The Democrats’ Long-Awaited Spine - The American Prospect
The latest ICE murder produces a unified Senate Democratic Caucus blocking funding for the Department of Homeland Security until strict limits are set.
prospect.org
January 26, 2026 at 3:40 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
mitshapingwork.bsky.social
📅 Don't miss our symposium exploring Why Wealth Inequality Matters on Tuesday, January 27 from 1-5 PM EST.

Register to join us in person at MIT or watch the livestream: shapingwork.mit.edu/events/why-w...
January 23, 2026 at 5:51 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
aaronsojourner.org
Americans' economic and political pains mainly stem from unprecedented concentration of our wealth, a few dozen mega-billionaires control 12%.

They buy a lot of politicians, media outlets, & influencers to distract from their power by blaming our pain on immigrants, DEI, women's careers...
annpettifor.bsky.social Ann Pettifor @annpettifor.bsky.social · 15d
Gabriel Zucman on the shocking concentration of extreme wealth in the United States….
gzucman.substack.com?r=nle0&utm_c...
January 19, 2026 at 12:24 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
almsnatalie.bsky.social
A govt watchdog recently reported that USDA is failing to prevent $555 million in SNAP benefits from being stolen from those that need them.

This comes as the Trump admin says it’s focused on fraud.

www.nextgov.com/digital-gove...
Agriculture’s failure to force SNAP card upgrades is causing $555M in lost benefits, watchdog says
The Trump administration’s imperative to combat fraud has largely focused on recipients scamming the system, rather than becoming victims of fraudsters themselves.
www.nextgov.com
January 23, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
resnikoff.bsky.social
New from me: A brief for @rooseveltinstitute.org on the logic of YIMBY policymaking and its applicability to other domains. What principles underlying the YIMBY agenda are transferrable to thinking about energy, healthcare, and other areas? Short 🧵 to follow. rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...
Lessons from YIMBYism: Taking “Abundance” Back to Its Fundamentals
Lessons from YIMBYism examines how supply-side reforms, public investment, and state capacity can make progressive social policy work as intended.
rooseveltinstitute.org
January 21, 2026 at 3:52 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
kare11.bsky.social
A combat-wounded veteran's eight-hour detention by federal agents in Minneapolis raises concerns about due process in ICE facilities.
Army veteran says ICE agents detained him for hours without access to phone or his attorney
A combat-wounded veteran's eight-hour detention by federal agents in Minneapolis raises concerns about due process in ICE facilities.
www.kare11.com
January 20, 2026 at 3:14 AM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
chloeneast.bsky.social
I'll be discussing the role of immigration in the US workforce with a fantastic set of panelists on Jan 30!

I'll talk about why anti-immigration policies make Social Security and Medicare solvency worse .... & why we shouldn't make decisions about humans based only on their fiscal impact
popassocamerica.bsky.social Population Association of America @popassocamerica.bsky.social · Dec 18
Join us online on January 30 at 12pm ET for this panel of scientists to provide a demographic overview of the U.S. immigrant population. See the panelists and register here: buff.ly/elJ7uTd @fertmortmig.bsky.social @chloeneast.bsky.social
January 16, 2026 at 4:34 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
anneapplebaum.bsky.social
Read Frank Foer's amazing essay on the civil servants we have lost

www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
The Purged
Donald Trump’s destruction of the civil service is a tragedy not just for the roughly 300,000 workers who have been discarded, but for an entire nation.
www.theatlantic.com
January 13, 2026 at 4:44 AM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
reichlinmelnick.bsky.social
On that last point, in the decade before COVID, a full 82% of all ICE arrests occurred at local jails and prisons, where the "arrest" was just a custody transfer.

ICE's Fugitive Operations division, which did most "at-large" enforcement, had fewer than 750 officers as of January. Seriously.
January 13, 2026 at 3:16 AM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
reichlinmelnick.bsky.social
NEW: Data released by ICE shows that virtually the entire growth of detention in the last few months has been among people with no criminal record at all - no prior convictions (no matter how minor) and no pending criminal charges.
Chart showing "Detention Population, Among Those Arrested in the interior, by Criminal Record, May 2019 through January 27, 2026. There are three lines on the graph: prior conviction, pending criminal charges, and no criminal record. from 2019 through January 2025, "prior conviction" is by far the highest, followed by pending charges much lower down and "no criminal record" the lowest. During the Biden admin, very few people arrested by ICE in the interior and detained had no criminal record. Beginning in January 2025, all three lines jump, but the highest spike is among those with no criminal records. By September, that has become the single largest. Since that point, there are now thousands more people in detention with no criminal record than people with prior convictions.
January 9, 2026 at 12:55 AM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
kathleenromig.bsky.social
ICYMI over the holiday break, here are a few must-read articles:

1. WaPo on how the Social Security Administration struggled to serve the public in the Trump era (gift link)

wapo.st/49EIN9l
How Social Security has gotten worse under Trump
Customer service deteriorated by key measures as the agency enacted sweeping cuts in Trump’s second term, internal data and interviews show.
wapo.st
January 5, 2026 at 3:18 PM
jbarofsky.bsky.social
+1 and let's do this for health insurance too
moreperfectunion.bsky.social More Perfect Union @moreperfectunion.bsky.social · Dec 18
Zohran Mamdani explains that thousands and thousands of New Yorkers are already eligible for free and reduce public transportation, but because of the bureaucratic hurdles they never get enrolled in the program.

That's why he wants to just make the bus free.
December 19, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
socio-steve.bsky.social
This is part of a larger debate about targeting versus universal programs...administrative burden/incomplete uptake, stigma, and political viability.
moreperfectunion.bsky.social More Perfect Union @moreperfectunion.bsky.social · Dec 18
Zohran Mamdani explains that thousands and thousands of New Yorkers are already eligible for free and reduce public transportation, but because of the bureaucratic hurdles they never get enrolled in the program.

That's why he wants to just make the bus free.
December 18, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
mattyglesias.bsky.social
Creating WIC was good

www.nber.org/papers/w34521
December 15, 2025 at 3:24 PM