Jay Sayre
@jaysayre.bsky.social
Economist and Asst Prof of CE @UCDavisARE.bsky.social & @UCANR.edu
International trade + agriculture + remote sensing. 🌐🥑🚢🐄
Chionophile and orophile.
#StandUpForUC
jaysayre.com
https://uccecon.ucdavis.edu/
International trade + agriculture + remote sensing. 🌐🥑🚢🐄
Chionophile and orophile.
#StandUpForUC
jaysayre.com
https://uccecon.ucdavis.edu/
Super interesting work! I wonder if a similar process is happening in other countries. From 2007 to 2022, according to Mexico's ag census, ~400k farms were added, which makes little sense given similar consolidation trends there as in US
September 24, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Super interesting work! I wonder if a similar process is happening in other countries. From 2007 to 2022, according to Mexico's ag census, ~400k farms were added, which makes little sense given similar consolidation trends there as in US
Thanks! My sense is this was a 2020-21 problem, when consumers shifted towards goods and away from services. Demand to ship goods from Asia was so high that it was more costly to spend time loading 🇺🇸 ag goods. Large imbalances in shipping demand likely harmful as well thecounter.org/pandemic-sho...
Pandemic “doom shopping” is clogging up shipping ports. That means a lot of food destined for export is getting stuck.
Ocean carriers are making it more difficult and costly to ship American food exports. Industry groups want federal regulators to clamp down.
thecounter.org
May 7, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Thanks! My sense is this was a 2020-21 problem, when consumers shifted towards goods and away from services. Demand to ship goods from Asia was so high that it was more costly to spend time loading 🇺🇸 ag goods. Large imbalances in shipping demand likely harmful as well thecounter.org/pandemic-sho...
Ironically, these tariff policies may worsen the trade deficits they aim to fix -- Wong (2022) finds when accounting for supply and demand for global shipping, restrictionist trade policies increase bilateral trade deficits
(7/7)
(7/7)
May 6, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Ironically, these tariff policies may worsen the trade deficits they aim to fix -- Wong (2022) finds when accounting for supply and demand for global shipping, restrictionist trade policies increase bilateral trade deficits
(7/7)
(7/7)
With fewer imports arriving due to tariffs, fewer ships are available to carry U.S. goods out. The Port of LA as of this week reports a 44% drop in docked vessels.
(6/7)
(6/7)
May 6, 2025 at 4:23 AM
With fewer imports arriving due to tariffs, fewer ships are available to carry U.S. goods out. The Port of LA as of this week reports a 44% drop in docked vessels.
(6/7)
(6/7)
A new Section 301 action on shipbuilders and vessels will increase shipping costs. 🇨🇳 builds over 40% of the world’s cargo fleet, and Chinese vessels are in third place for carrying CA ag exports. Without alternatives, American exporters will likely pay these higher costs
(5/7)
(5/7)
May 6, 2025 at 4:23 AM
A new Section 301 action on shipbuilders and vessels will increase shipping costs. 🇨🇳 builds over 40% of the world’s cargo fleet, and Chinese vessels are in third place for carrying CA ag exports. Without alternatives, American exporters will likely pay these higher costs
(5/7)
(5/7)
Taking this in mind, it’s worth thinking about the implications of several recent events for the competitiveness of Californian (and more broadly, American) agricultural exports
(4/7)
(4/7)
May 6, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Taking this in mind, it’s worth thinking about the implications of several recent events for the competitiveness of Californian (and more broadly, American) agricultural exports
(4/7)
(4/7)
This isn’t just about 🇨🇳. Assembling US port level freight dates, Woan Foong Wong (AEJ: Applied 2022) finds U.S. exports pay 61% of the freight rate U.S. imports do, given supply and demand for shipping in each direction.
(3/7)
(3/7)
May 6, 2025 at 4:23 AM
This isn’t just about 🇨🇳. Assembling US port level freight dates, Woan Foong Wong (AEJ: Applied 2022) finds U.S. exports pay 61% of the freight rate U.S. imports do, given supply and demand for shipping in each direction.
(3/7)
(3/7)
Given our bilateral trade deficit, often times cargo 🛳️ from China come full and return relatively empty. To avoid wasted capacity, shipping companies discount rates on US exports headed back to 🇨🇳. As a result, cheaper freight rates yield more competitive 🇺🇸 ag exports
(2/7)
(2/7)
May 6, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Given our bilateral trade deficit, often times cargo 🛳️ from China come full and return relatively empty. To avoid wasted capacity, shipping companies discount rates on US exports headed back to 🇨🇳. As a result, cheaper freight rates yield more competitive 🇺🇸 ag exports
(2/7)
(2/7)
Hi there - I'm most interested in agriculture and its effects on the environment, so anything about biodiversity, ag emissions, forest loss, crop shocks, etc. wld be interesting. Best
April 9, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Hi there - I'm most interested in agriculture and its effects on the environment, so anything about biodiversity, ag emissions, forest loss, crop shocks, etc. wld be interesting. Best