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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre
@jaysayre.bsky.social
240 followers 360 following 50 posts
Economist and Asst Prof of CE @UCDavisARE.bsky.social & @UCANR.edu International trade + agriculture + remote sensing. 🌐🥑🚢🐄 Chionophile and orophile. #StandUpForUC jaysayre.com https://uccecon.ucdavis.edu/
uccecon.ucdavis.edu
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ucdavisare.bsky.social
ucdavisare.bsky.social @ucdavisare.bsky.social · Sep 16
@UCDavisARE.bsky.social is hiring an Assistant Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics: Financial and Agricultural Commodity Market Economics.

recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07305
Assistant Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics: Financial and Agricultural Commodity Market Economics
University of California, Davis is hiring. Apply now!
recruit.ucdavis.edu
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · 21d
Super interesting work! I wonder if a similar process is happening in other countries. From 2007 to 2022, according to Mexico's ag census, ~400k farms were added, which makes little sense given similar consolidation trends there as in US
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · 29d
Great news!
@UCDavisARE.bluesky.social
is hiring an Asst. Prof this year in agricultural and financial commodity markets. Happy to answer any questions about the position or department. Please apply by Nov. 3rd!

recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07305
Assistant Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics: Financial and Agricultural Commodity Market Economics
University of California, Davis is hiring. Apply now!
recruit.ucdavis.edu
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Reposted by Jay Sayre
dlortega.bsky.social
David L. Ortega @dlortega.bsky.social · Aug 15
Wholesale prices came in hot in today’s PPI report, but veggies stole the show 🥦📈

Vegetable prices at the wholesale level surged nearly 39% in July. @willmasters.bsky.social & I unpack what’s behind this spike in today's @marketplace.org 🎙️

www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...
Why are wholesale vegetable prices spiking, and what's that mean for consumers?
About a quarter of the 3.3% price increase recorded by this month’s producer price index was driven by a spike in wholesale prices for veggies.
www.marketplace.org
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Reposted by Jay Sayre
markagerton.bsky.social
Mark Agerton @markagerton.bsky.social · Jul 15
@ucdavis.bsky.social Dept of #AgEcon is excited to announce our '25-26 #jobmarket candidates. These 16 #PhD students are doing great research in #agriculture, #development, #environment, #energy, #health, and #labor. Many presenting at #AAEA2025 in Denver July 27-29! are.ucdavis.edu/phd/job-cand...
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Reposted by Jay Sayre
ucanrpam.bsky.social
Pam Kan-Rice @ucanrpam.bsky.social · Jul 4
California grows about 1/3 of the country's vegetables, 3/4 of its fruits & nuts, and employs almost 900,000 people, says @kairyssdal.bsky.social
“We’re not getting an influx of new, young workers," says Ali Hill, @ucanr.bsky.social agricultural labor economist
marketplace.org
Marketplace @marketplace.org · Jul 3
The fear of ICE raids is keeping California farm workers on edge. Plus, we visit affordable housing built on public land, break down why lower tariffs will still pinch consumers and discuss the latest jobs report.

Today on Marketplace.
Fear of ICE raids keeps California farm workers on edge
Plus, we visit affordable housing built on public land, break down why lower tariffs will still pinch consumers and discuss the latest jobs report.
www.marketplace.org
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Reposted by Jay Sayre
ufw.bsky.social
United Farm Workers @ufw.bsky.social · Jun 16
As long as immigration sweeps are happening in the communities that farm workers live in, farm workers will continue being detained and deported.

Farm workers deserve REAL protections, so they can continue working without fear.

www.npr.org/2025/06/16/n...
After early reprieve from immigration enforcement, farming industry reckons with raids
The Trump administration's immigration enforcement mostly left farms and meat packing plants alone, until coordinated raids last week. Now, President Trump is signaling continued support for farmers.
www.npr.org
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Reposted by Jay Sayre
weatherwest.bsky.social
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · Jun 6
For some perspective, the federal government funds *over half* of all scientific research and development conducted by the @uofcalifornia.bsky.social -- and UC is collectively responsible, in turn, for over 8% of all academic research conducted in the United States.
Factsheet (from April 2025) detailing various statistics regarding the partnership between the University of California and the federal government.
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 20
In case you missed this, you can watch the recording here:
ucdavis.zoom.us/rec/share/_0...
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 15
This Monday I'm hosting a webinar titled "Navigating Trade Policy Uncertainty in California Agriculture" on Monday, May 19th at 2pm. Opportunities will be available to ask questions about current trade policy at the end. Register now: ucdavis.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Image of the Port of Stockton. 📸: Downtowngal, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26671447
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 7
Thanks! My sense is this was a 2020-21 problem, when consumers shifted towards goods and away from services. Demand to ship goods from Asia was so high that it was more costly to spend time loading 🇺🇸 ag goods. Large imbalances in shipping demand likely harmful as well thecounter.org/pandemic-sho...
Pandemic “doom shopping” is clogging up shipping ports. That means a lot of food destined for export is getting stuck.
Ocean carriers are making it more difficult and costly to ship American food exports. Industry groups want federal regulators to clamp down.
thecounter.org
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 6
I've written more about this here:
uccecon.ucdavis.edu/blog/shippin...
Thanks for reading!
Shipping costs, American agricultural exports, and bilateral trade deficits
Tariffs and bilateral trade deficits
uccecon.ucdavis.edu
jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 6
Ironically, these tariff policies may worsen the trade deficits they aim to fix -- Wong (2022) finds when accounting for supply and demand for global shipping, restrictionist trade policies increase bilateral trade deficits
(7/7)
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 6
With fewer imports arriving due to tariffs, fewer ships are available to carry U.S. goods out. The Port of LA as of this week reports a 44% drop in docked vessels.
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 6
A new Section 301 action on shipbuilders and vessels will increase shipping costs. 🇨🇳 builds over 40% of the world’s cargo fleet, and Chinese vessels are in third place for carrying CA ag exports. Without alternatives, American exporters will likely pay these higher costs
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Top 10 vessel countries for Californian Agricultural exports, 2022. The top 3 countries are Panama, Marshall Islands, and China.
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 6
Taking this in mind, it’s worth thinking about the implications of several recent events for the competitiveness of Californian (and more broadly, American) agricultural exports
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 6
This isn’t just about 🇨🇳. Assembling US port level freight dates, Woan Foong Wong (AEJ: Applied 2022) finds U.S. exports pay 61% of the freight rate U.S. imports do, given supply and demand for shipping in each direction.
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 6
Given our bilateral trade deficit, often times cargo 🛳️ from China come full and return relatively empty. To avoid wasted capacity, shipping companies discount rates on US exports headed back to 🇨🇳. As a result, cheaper freight rates yield more competitive 🇺🇸 ag exports
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · May 6
Regarding the discussion of bilateral trade deficits, I think there is a missing point: our trade imbalance lowers shipping costs for current U.S. exporters, which boosts the competitiveness of US exports, including Californian ag exports. A short thread below 🧵
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · Apr 9
Hi there - I'm most interested in agriculture and its effects on the environment, so anything about biodiversity, ag emissions, forest loss, crop shocks, etc. wld be interesting. Best
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Reposted by Jay Sayre
josephpolitano.bsky.social
Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · Apr 7
I’m losing my mind here. USTR made a list of “Unfair trade practices” they’re retaliating against, complaint number 5 is that the EU cares too much about stopping illegal deforestation, complaint number 7 is that the South Americans are doing too much illegal deforestation
“5/10: The EU's Deforestation-free Supply Chain Regulation (EUDR) aims to prohibit imports of seven products—including cattle, cocoa, rubber, and wood—unless exporters meet various burdensome compliance requirements, including due diligence and geolocation data. It is estimated the EUDR will potentially impact $8.6 billion worth of annual U.S. agricultural and industrial exports.” 7/10: Illegal logging and illegal mining in South America, particularly in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador, fuel environmental degradation and create unfair competition that harms U.S. businesses committed to responsible sourcing and compliance with environmental laws. These illicit activities, which usually involve transnational criminal organizations, distort global commodity markets by driving down prices and allowing bad actors to undercut legitimate American exporters.
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · Apr 8
Seems like the quote I gave in this article predicting that the Trump administration would use deforestation as a potential justification to limit imports was pretty prescient given this recent USTR tweet
Tweet from the US Trade Representative that reads: 7/10: Illegal logging and illegal mining in South America, particularly in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador, fuel environmental degradation and create unfair competition that harms U.S. businesses committed to responsible sourcing and compliance with environmental laws. These illicit activities, which usually involve transnational criminal organizations, distort global commodity markets by driving down prices and allowing bad actors to undercut legitimate American exporters.
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · Apr 8
Certainly the decisions that led to new almond trees in the last couple years replacing mature walnut orchards here in Yolo Co seem predicated on continued access to export markets
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · Apr 8
So while I wouldn't say all acreage planted has been aimed towards export markets, certainly it's fair to say that CA wouldn't have as many almonds or pistachios without the expanded market size from export access
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jaysayre.bsky.social
Jay Sayre @jaysayre.bsky.social · Apr 8
For pistachios, exports and domestic sales have grown more comparably (domestic sales have increased 8x, with exports increasing 11x)
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