Find more details in my blog from last week smf.co.uk/commentary_p... (3/3)

...there had already been some 'accidental churn' which meant 10-15% of govt had already been swapped out since July 2024. To stay in line with other 'big but infrequent' reshufflers (Blair, Major) perhaps 30-40% of the rest of the frontbench may find themselves swapped (2/3)

3) Does this overperformance of the polls reflects standard by-election behaviour of kicking the government?
We will have to wait for more electoral tests here and elsewhere to tell. (12/12)

2) Are the polls currently failing to capture Reform’s true strength in the country? Possibly, it will be interesting to see how polls shift after these results. (11/12)

That would put the 15-20 seats that benefit it at greater risk, including Ministers such as Alison McGovern and high profile MPs such as Angela and Maria Eagle and Dan Carden all at risk if it is breached. (10/12)

1) Does this mean that the Mersey Wall has been breached? That the effects dragging down Reform in this patch of the North West have dissipated? (9/12)

Reform did about 4% better in R&H than their UK average in GE24. With a current polling average of 25%, a result of 29% in the by-election might be expected. Their result of 38.7% blew this out of the water. This prompts 3 questions. (8/12)

With all these factors combined, Runcorn and Helsby, and many seats in or near Merseyside, should have been more fertile territory for Reform in GE24. This by-election win shows that this may well now be the case. (7/12)

- It’s 97% white vs an average across seats in the model of 82% (although it hasn’t fallen as much as elsewhere)
- 29% of people have degrees vs an average of 34%
- 20% of people are on Universal Credit vs an average of 17%
(6/12)

Reform took 18.1% of the R&H vote in the 2024 general election. That was higher than their overall UK vote share of 14.3%, but lower than the 20% the model would have expected. The red dam may therefore have shaved 1.9% off Reform’s vote in GE24. Why? (5/12)

Whether the Mersey Wall was thanks to political culture, the avoidance of The Sun or the joys of having 100s of Labour politicos clogging the waterfront in Liverpool once a year, we can’t yet say. But the trend was clear. (4/12)

We built a model that predicts Reform’s vote share based upon the demographics, economics and state of public services in a given seat. Reform underperformed almost everywhere in Merseyside in GE24 compared to what the model would have expected. (3/12)

Our recent analysis of populism uncovered a ‘Mersey Wall’, holding back the rising tide of Reform in GE24. Runcorn and Helsby (R&H) is determinedly part of Cheshire, but this political phenomenon stretched to its doors. (2/12)

...We found that places with fewer degree holders, a large but shrinking white population, and higher crime were more likely to vote reform. See more here smf.co.uk/publications... or in this series of video explainers youtube.com/watch?v=FmzF... (2/2)

For the full findings, head to the SMF website, and let me know if you have any thoughts or questions.
smf.co.uk/publications... (8/8)

Next steps include diving into the key drivers of populism we found - connecting Whitehall economic metrics to how people feel about their lives in these places, crime, community and educational status. We will also carry out seat level analysis (e.g. below). (7/8)

Historic political culture also plays a role. In Merseyside, for example, Reform did a lot worse in 2024 than the model suggested. The South West, too, saw a systematically lower Reform vote, as the chart shows. perhaps due to the longstanding affinity to the Lib Dems. (6/8)