13 out of 28 cabinet posts taken by new people - in line with a the 'big but infrequent' reshuffles we expected from Starmer so far, with 40-50% turnover. For the junior ranks...(1/3)

With all these factors combined, Runcorn and Helsby, and many seats in or near Merseyside, should have been more fertile territory for Reform in GE24. This by-election win shows that this may well now be the case. (7/12)

We built a model that predicts Reform’s vote share based upon the demographics, economics and state of public services in a given seat. Reform underperformed almost everywhere in Merseyside in GE24 compared to what the model would have expected. (3/12)

This by-election shows the ‘Mersey wall’ is breached
This result demonstrates that Reform’s strength in the polls was able to translate to votes. This will be of concern enough to Labour, but the geography of this loss portends bigger risks…(map explained below) (1/12)

Starmer promised in a speech today to listen to communities 'failed' by politics. Our @smfthinktank.bsky.social latest research on populism explores some of the causes of this rising dissatisfaction with mainstream parties.... (1/2)

Next steps include diving into the key drivers of populism we found - connecting Whitehall economic metrics to how people feel about their lives in these places, crime, community and educational status. We will also carry out seat level analysis (e.g. below). (7/8)

Historic political culture also plays a role. In Merseyside, for example, Reform did a lot worse in 2024 than the model suggested. The South West, too, saw a systematically lower Reform vote, as the chart shows. perhaps due to the longstanding affinity to the Lib Dems. (6/8)

The model also tells us what it would expect Reform’s vote share to be in GE24. It is important to look at places where Reform significantly over or underperformed what the model would have expected... (4/8)

Places with fewer graduates and large but shrinking white populations are more likely to have voted in larger numbers for Reform at the last election. Higher crime, shrinking manufacturing and more people on UC were also important predictors. (2/8)