James Dyke
jamesgdyke.info
James Dyke
@jamesgdyke.info
Earth systems prof & assistant director of @gsiexeter.bsky.social | Technosphere Earth newsletter https://www.technosphere.earth
😬
November 19, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Reposted by James Dyke
I've been thinking along similar lines lately...

bsky.app/profile/thie...
Charts like this paint an overly optimistic picture

Many countries are off track for delivery & are unlikely to fully implement their current policy targets without greater action

E.g UKs Climate Change Commitee asseses that there is insufficient implementation to meet 40%of our emissions target!
November 17, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Reposted by James Dyke
Also: a change in projections is not a change in emissions. It's one indicator of progress: but it's misleading to present it as the best, most reliable or most meaningful, or to centre it too aggressively.

At worst: lukewarmists and centre-right techno-solutionists do this to downplay urgency
If you want to argue some progress has been made with reducing greenhouse gas emissions - OK. But stop framing it like this. The precision of 2.6°C completely misrepresents the *vast* uncertainties when it comes to climate & social responses & dynamics.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
November 17, 2025 at 11:03 AM
If you want to argue some progress has been made with reducing greenhouse gas emissions - OK. But stop framing it like this. The precision of 2.6°C completely misrepresents the *vast* uncertainties when it comes to climate & social responses & dynamics.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
November 17, 2025 at 11:00 AM
I will write more about this later, for now just to say our paper has been published today. 10 years after Paris Agreement we can conclusively say we have failed to limit warming to well below 2°C. What next?

www.cell.com/one-earth/ab...
Living beyond limits: Consequences of missing the decisive decade for preserving our planet’s life-supporting systems
Humanity has pushed Earth’s life-supporting systems to the brink, accelerated by our failures over the past decade. Our only way to limit the duration and magnitude of temperature overshoot is rapid, ...
www.cell.com
November 17, 2025 at 8:34 AM
At 5:30pm UK time I will be joining @rogerhallam.com, @fisherdanar.bsky.social, @jeremylent.bsky.social for our panel discussion "Collapse in the 21st century and apocalyptic optimism", part of REV21. Join 👇
events.zoom.us/ejl/AjPpsEFu...
November 16, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Reposted by James Dyke
We estimated the share of scientists who believe that "advances in technology will largely solve the problems caused by climate change" and used causally informed Bayesian regression models to estimate the impact of techno-optimism on scientists' civic actions and high-impact lifestyle changes.
November 14, 2025 at 9:20 AM
I wonder if the boast that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue, shoot somebody and not lose any voters, would extend to having sex with children. He has weathered so many other scandals (and convictions) that would sink other politicians.
Trump faces GOP revolt as House readies vote to release full Epstein files amid new emails linking him to case. Follow live.
Trump facing GOP rebellion on Epstein files vote—Live updates
www.newsweek.com
November 13, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The only thing worse than a grant application won, is a grant application lost. Project administration is hell.
November 13, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Electric cargo bikes can be transformative. For many families it means school run, shopping trips & other journeys around town made without any car use. You won't find one under £1k. We need more financial support for them.
November 13, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Reposted by James Dyke
Get your fill of Global Carbon Budget 2025 figures and associated data here, released today:
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
November 13, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Reposted by James Dyke
A new Nature paper accompanying the Global Carbon Budget finds that the land and ocean sinks are 25% smaller and 7% smaller, respectively, than they would have been without the effects of climate change over 2015-24:
Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget | Nature
Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise, pushing atmospheric CO2 levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36°C, within years of breaching the 1.5°C limit 1,2. Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO2 sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers 1. Here, we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in the global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, while net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards 1. The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with new evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations 3,4. Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO2 increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation turn Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO2 sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO2 sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy.
www.nature.com
November 13, 2025 at 3:26 AM
Reposted by James Dyke
"One of the workshop’s shared diagnoses was that the climate movement must broaden its struggle beyond carbon. This means organising around people’s material realities while confronting the elites and corporations driving destruction."

theecologist.org/2025/nov/12/...
November 12, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Reposted by James Dyke
1. Placing these two graphs side by side shows why we have a prisons crisis. They can also be seen as a kind of Authoritarianism Index, showing the trend in state attitudes.
On the left is the Crime Survey for England and Wales.
On the right is the UK prison population.
🧵1/8
November 13, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Reposted by James Dyke
I'm really excited to discuss collapse in the 21st century and apocalyptic optimism this weekend with @rogerhallam.com @jamesgdyke.info and @jeremylent.bsky.social! To register, go to: events.zoom.us/ev/AjPpsEFuC...
November 12, 2025 at 3:30 PM
What next? Trump forces sea levels to stop rising? Trump commands entropy to stop increasing?
The Trump admin seems set to force two Colorado coal plants to stay open past their planned closure this year, even as the costs of keeping an aging, unnecessary Michigan coal plant running through the summer top $80M. Are more must-run orders coming?
www.canarymedia.com/articles/fos...
#energysky
Trump’s DOE may soon force more coal plants to stay open
Colorado coal plants are likely to face DOE orders to keep running past planned closure dates, even as the costs of keeping an old Michigan plant open…
www.canarymedia.com
November 12, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Reposted by James Dyke
This is going to be a big old thread where I dump thoughts, reactions, charts etc from the @iea.org World Energy Outlook 2025 :)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlkP...

www.iea.org/commentaries...
World Energy Outlook 2025
YouTube video by International Energy Agency
www.youtube.com
November 12, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Reposted by James Dyke
Every single company, government or individual celebrating the IEA's new fossil-explosion scenario is also celebrating the heating of earth by three bloody degrees:
November 12, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Reposted by James Dyke
The IEA has brought back the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) in the World Energy Outlook (WEO).

I think this will be useful. Fossil CO2 emissions keep rising, when they should be falling. It is time to admit that. So I hope the CPS can help address this issue.

www.iea.org/reports/worl...

1/
November 12, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Reposted by James Dyke
Net zero is one of the many areas where commentators are out-of-touch with public opinion in Britain. There is still broad support for cutting carbon emissions - except from among Reform supporters, who are the outliers.
🧵/ How far does the public support net zero?

Support: 60%
Oppose: 25%

Net support by party
Green: +81
Lib Dem: +67
Lab: +64
Con: +11
Reform: -44

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
November 11, 2025 at 10:50 AM
November 11, 2025 at 8:48 AM
These sorts of personal attacks demonstrate that Polanski's messaging is cutting through (look at recent poling). More power to him.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
The right can mock my teeth all it wants – it shows the Greens have struck a nerve | Zack Polanski
As a politician, I expect opposition and debate. But when it centres on personal insults, not policies, something else is going on, says the leader of the Green party, Zack Polanski
www.theguardian.com
November 11, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Reposted by James Dyke
I've made a spreadsheet with the event schedules for COP30 pavilions, including the UK 🇬🇧 Japan 🇯🇵 Indonesia 🇮🇩 Australia 🇦🇺 and China 🇨🇳

The UNFCCC has a schedule list, but hardly any of the major pavilions are on there.

I'll update the list as I collect more ⬇️

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
COP 30 pavilions
docs.google.com
November 11, 2025 at 12:45 AM
This should be fun. Many other online events happening over 15-16th. You can sign up here:
events.zoom.us/ev/AjPpsEFuC...
November 10, 2025 at 8:37 PM