Jake Metzger
@jake-metzger.bsky.social
Interests: AI, ML, Stats, Epistemology, Causal Inference, Decision Theory, Phil of Sci
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6020-3908
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Ncru1nkAAAAJ
My posts are my own and don't reflect the dispositions of any other person
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6020-3908
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Ncru1nkAAAAJ
My posts are my own and don't reflect the dispositions of any other person
Café reading days are my favorite days.
July 12, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Café reading days are my favorite days.
Zotero Sync + MegaCMD WebDAV = <3
July 4, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Zotero Sync + MegaCMD WebDAV = <3
When a petulant narcissist and his enablers find the facts too inconvenient for their feelings...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Trump team axes contracts with publishing giant Springer Nature
The action comes as high-ranking US officials criticize top journals as ‘woke’ and ‘corrupt’.
www.nature.com
June 30, 2025 at 10:52 PM
When a petulant narcissist and his enablers find the facts too inconvenient for their feelings...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Reposted by Jake Metzger
Richard @rmcelreath.bsky.social wrote a brilliant paper looking at this in quite specific detail journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery
Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these p...
journals.plos.org
June 24, 2025 at 6:04 AM
Richard @rmcelreath.bsky.social wrote a brilliant paper looking at this in quite specific detail journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
I asked what a Diogenean stats goblin would look like. Add my dog and I'd call it "Saturday at home".
June 20, 2025 at 11:23 PM
I asked what a Diogenean stats goblin would look like. Add my dog and I'd call it "Saturday at home".
Reposted by Jake Metzger
Just read again this wonderful piece by @helendecruz.net where she argues against two-tier #philosophy: “The picture of isolated geniuses who stand like lone beacons in the history of philosophy is woefully inept.” open.substack.com/pub/helendec... #philsky
Against two-tier philosophy
I have been meaning to write something about my health.
open.substack.com
June 15, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Just read again this wonderful piece by @helendecruz.net where she argues against two-tier #philosophy: “The picture of isolated geniuses who stand like lone beacons in the history of philosophy is woefully inept.” open.substack.com/pub/helendec... #philsky
Some lighter reading in the café today.
June 15, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Some lighter reading in the café today.
Reposted by Jake Metzger
🚨New paper!🚨
Meta-analysis on 4M p-values across 240k psych articles: How has psychology changed since the replication crisis began? How is replicability linked to citations, impact factor, and university prestige? 🧵
Paper: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Interactive: pbogdan.com/meganal
Meta-analysis on 4M p-values across 240k psych articles: How has psychology changed since the replication crisis began? How is replicability linked to citations, impact factor, and university prestige? 🧵
Paper: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Interactive: pbogdan.com/meganal
April 9, 2025 at 1:15 PM
🚨New paper!🚨
Meta-analysis on 4M p-values across 240k psych articles: How has psychology changed since the replication crisis began? How is replicability linked to citations, impact factor, and university prestige? 🧵
Paper: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Interactive: pbogdan.com/meganal
Meta-analysis on 4M p-values across 240k psych articles: How has psychology changed since the replication crisis began? How is replicability linked to citations, impact factor, and university prestige? 🧵
Paper: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Interactive: pbogdan.com/meganal
Reposted by Jake Metzger
1/3 With everything that is going on in the world, philosophy of science may seem irrelevant or trivial to you, but IMHO our thoughts, values and actions are always influenced by philosophy. #Philosophy #Science
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Why bad philosophy is stopping progress in physics
Theoretical physicists are in thrall to a misguided mindset that allows viable ideas to be advanced only by overturning what already exists.
www.nature.com
May 26, 2025 at 8:56 PM
1/3 With everything that is going on in the world, philosophy of science may seem irrelevant or trivial to you, but IMHO our thoughts, values and actions are always influenced by philosophy. #Philosophy #Science
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Reposted by Jake Metzger
My article on classical statistics and the base-rate fallacy is now officially out at Philosophy of Science.
The short pitch: classical statistics does not commit the base-rate fallacy, despite what some Bayesian philosophers have suggested.
doi.org/10.1017/psa....
The short pitch: classical statistics does not commit the base-rate fallacy, despite what some Bayesian philosophers have suggested.
doi.org/10.1017/psa....
Who’s Afraid of the Base-Rate Fallacy? | Philosophy of Science | Cambridge Core
Who’s Afraid of the Base-Rate Fallacy? - Volume 92 Issue 2
doi.org
May 8, 2025 at 11:52 AM
My article on classical statistics and the base-rate fallacy is now officially out at Philosophy of Science.
The short pitch: classical statistics does not commit the base-rate fallacy, despite what some Bayesian philosophers have suggested.
doi.org/10.1017/psa....
The short pitch: classical statistics does not commit the base-rate fallacy, despite what some Bayesian philosophers have suggested.
doi.org/10.1017/psa....
Light brunchtime reading.
Roger Rosenkrantz, "Inference, Method, and Decision" + Banana latte
Roger Rosenkrantz, "Inference, Method, and Decision" + Banana latte
May 3, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Light brunchtime reading.
Roger Rosenkrantz, "Inference, Method, and Decision" + Banana latte
Roger Rosenkrantz, "Inference, Method, and Decision" + Banana latte
Reposted by Jake Metzger
Has Pearl responded to the recent paper by Dawid and Senn? I scrolled through hit Xitter feed and didn't see anything but he tweets so often maybe it was buried.
Any help #statsky or #episky?
arxiv.org/abs/2301.11976
Any help #statsky or #episky?
arxiv.org/abs/2301.11976
Personalised Decision-Making without Counterfactuals
This article is a response to recent proposals by Pearl and others for a new approach to personalised treatment decisions, in contrast to the traditional one based on statistical decision theory. We a...
arxiv.org
April 16, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Has Pearl responded to the recent paper by Dawid and Senn? I scrolled through hit Xitter feed and didn't see anything but he tweets so often maybe it was buried.
Any help #statsky or #episky?
arxiv.org/abs/2301.11976
Any help #statsky or #episky?
arxiv.org/abs/2301.11976
I've been wondering recently to what degree different definitions or interpretations of probability are subject to open-question-style arguments as objections. Not having thought far yet, it seems to me that frequentist definitions are almost certainly open, as well as some subjectivist ones.
April 17, 2025 at 4:14 AM
I've been wondering recently to what degree different definitions or interpretations of probability are subject to open-question-style arguments as objections. Not having thought far yet, it seems to me that frequentist definitions are almost certainly open, as well as some subjectivist ones.
Reposted by Jake Metzger
I'm a couple years late to the party, but if you like statistics (and could use a distraction from the dumpster fire that is the US right now) this is a cool paper from @paulbuerkner.com, @avehtari.bsky.social and others. #statsky
Practical Hilbert space approximate Bayesian Gaussian processes for probabilistic programming - Statistics and Computing
Gaussian processes are powerful non-parametric probabilistic models for stochastic functions. However, the direct implementation entails a complexity that is computationally intractable when the numbe...
link.springer.com
April 4, 2025 at 1:14 PM
I'm a couple years late to the party, but if you like statistics (and could use a distraction from the dumpster fire that is the US right now) this is a cool paper from @paulbuerkner.com, @avehtari.bsky.social and others. #statsky