jacobtref.bsky.social
@jacobtref.bsky.social
blog.jacobtrefethen.com

Program Director, Open Philanthropy

science!
Pinned
Will AI solve medicine?

We decided to be as definitive as is possible in 2025. That meant going long, through the drug development process

Sections
1. Clashing worldviews
2. Drug discovery
3. Models
4. Efficacy
5. Safety
6. Manufacturing & healthcare
7. Funding
8. Trust & ambition

Hope you enjoy!
This year Demis Hassabis predicted AI could cure all disease in a decade.

But other scientists like Claus Wilke & Derek Lowe say biology is far more complex, or progress will be limited by clinical trials & economics.

In a new 4hr podcast episode of *Hard Drugs*, we answer: Will AI solve medicine?
Will AI solve medicine?
spotify.link
Attenuation Is All You Need (Well, inactivation too)

We cover the invention of 20 vaccines from the 1700s through 1970. Technology (smallpox vaccine) preceding scientific understanding (germ theory), then speeding up once theory established from experiments (maggots…) & new tools made (agar plates)
Imagine you lived in the 18th century.

Smallpox kills 1 in 3 cases. Yet you can’t culture pathogens, don’t know germ theory, and have no idea what a virus is. How would you invent a vaccine?

In a new episode of HARD DRUGS, we trace the history of vaccines!
The history of vaccines
open.spotify.com
November 26, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Reposted
Some news: Open Philanthropy is now Coefficient Giving! Our mission is unchanged but the new name reflects our growing work with other donors to multiply the impact of their giving.

🧵 on our work to make philanthropy a more efficient "market" and plans going forward:
November 18, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Reposted
Some amazing jobs here! Our science and global health R&D team works on funding breakthroughs for neglected, high mortality/morbidity diseases and does a ton of great and interesting work -- see job links in Jacob's thread!
🚨 Hiring scientists to help give away money 🚨

At Open Philanthropy, we have given away $600M in biomedical research since 2016. Now, we're expanding the team to do more.

We're hiring:
* Up to 3 Senior Program Associates
* Program Officer in strep A

Remote OK, salaries in links! (Thread below)
Hiring scientists to give away money
At Open Philanthropy, we have given away $600 million in biomedical research since 2016. That funding has supported the work of thousands of scientists across hundreds of universities, nonprofits, and...
blog.jacobtrefethen.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:55 AM
🚨 Hiring scientists to help give away money 🚨

At Open Philanthropy, we have given away $600M in biomedical research since 2016. Now, we're expanding the team to do more.

We're hiring:
* Up to 3 Senior Program Associates
* Program Officer in strep A

Remote OK, salaries in links! (Thread below)
Hiring scientists to give away money
At Open Philanthropy, we have given away $600 million in biomedical research since 2016. That funding has supported the work of thousands of scientists across hundreds of universities, nonprofits, and...
blog.jacobtrefethen.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:11 AM
Reposted
MFW my co-host @jacobtref.bsky.social is telling me all about the drug development pipeline.
October 29, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Reposted
Welp @scientificdiscovery.dev and Jacob are back again, Will AI Cure Disease? By the end of the 4.5 hours you'll be significantly older and might find out!
www.worksinprogress.news/p/will-ai-so...?
Will AI solve medicine?
Some say AI will solve medicine within a decade. Others believe biology is far more complex than people imagine and AI will hit the limits of clinical trials and economics. Who's right?
www.worksinprogress.news
October 29, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Will AI solve medicine?

We decided to be as definitive as is possible in 2025. That meant going long, through the drug development process

Sections
1. Clashing worldviews
2. Drug discovery
3. Models
4. Efficacy
5. Safety
6. Manufacturing & healthcare
7. Funding
8. Trust & ambition

Hope you enjoy!
This year Demis Hassabis predicted AI could cure all disease in a decade.

But other scientists like Claus Wilke & Derek Lowe say biology is far more complex, or progress will be limited by clinical trials & economics.

In a new 4hr podcast episode of *Hard Drugs*, we answer: Will AI solve medicine?
Will AI solve medicine?
spotify.link
October 29, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Reposted
Apparently some people think I'm AI generated, because... I don't blink enough
October 19, 2025 at 7:21 AM
Reposted
Tune in to find out:

- how to go from hallucinated cat pictures to hallucinated proteins
- whether @jacobtref.bsky.social can do photosynthesis
- whether we can make tiny protein straws for tardigrades to drink from
New episode of Hard Drugs!

What if you could design a protein never seen in nature?

Scientists are using new AI tools like RFDiffusion, AlphaFold & ProteinMPNN to hallucinate novel proteins to solve problems nature hasn't.

@jacobtref.bsky.social & I talk about the art of protein design 🧑‍🎨
The art of protein design with AI
YouTube video by Works in Progress
www.youtube.com
October 17, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Our most practical episode yet for people who want to dabble in biotech

As of 2022, you can hallucinate protein structures using AI similar to Midjourney (RFDiffusion) -> create amino acid strings for them (ProteinMPNN) -> validate with AlphaFold

Biology becomes engineering…
New episode of Hard Drugs!

What if you could design a protein never seen in nature?

Scientists are using new AI tools like RFDiffusion, AlphaFold & ProteinMPNN to hallucinate novel proteins to solve problems nature hasn't.

@jacobtref.bsky.social & I talk about the art of protein design 🧑‍🎨
The art of protein design with AI
YouTube video by Works in Progress
www.youtube.com
October 15, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Reposted
Cool episode on how AI can help us design new proteins (e.g., for vaccines).

I’d heard of AlphaFold before, but not of ProteinMPNN. You feed a protein structure into PMPNN & generate possible sequences of amino acids. And then you feed those into AlphaFold to check whether they’d fold up that way!
New episode of HARD DRUGS!

AlphaFold, ProteinMPNN & other AI tools are transforming biology and drug design.

But how do they work? What can’t they do? And can we use them to make a vaccine against Strep A for the very first time?

In this episode, Jacob and I talk about hacking proteins with AI.
Hacking proteins with AI
open.spotify.com
October 2, 2025 at 6:28 AM
Hearing a lot about AI designing drugs, but not sure what specifically that means?

Ever wonder how AlphaFold works, or what practical problems it helps with?

How rattan daybeds can hold their own in a modern home?

This episode is for you!
New episode of HARD DRUGS!

AlphaFold, ProteinMPNN & other AI tools are transforming biology and drug design.

But how do they work? What can’t they do? And can we use them to make a vaccine against Strep A for the very first time?

In this episode, Jacob and I talk about hacking proteins with AI.
Hacking proteins with AI
open.spotify.com
October 1, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Reposted
every time i feel bad about writing long essays / blog posts i think, no. what would saloni and jacob do.
September 28, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Reposted
The reviews are in!

"I heard it just now! So good 😊" – my mom

"Just listened to the new insulin episode and loved it." – @rossaokod.bsky.social

"you should have added 5 more minutes on how early researchers checked for the sweetness of animal urine..." – @pseudoerasmus.bsky.social
New podcast episode of HARD DRUGS!

A hundred years ago, insulin was scraped from pig pancreases.
Today, it’s made by bacteria in giant tanks.

In this episode, we cover 100 years of insulin … in 15 minutes!
100 years of insulin in 15 minutes
open.spotify.com
September 17, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Reposted
1/3 As someone diagnosed as Type 1 in 1976, I can remember beginning on porcine insulin (bovine was another alternative). The first "human" insulin I had was actually enzymatically modified porcine. I started with glass syringes, with exchangeable all metal needles, stored in methylated spirit.
September 16, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Last episode: an introduction to what proteins are

This episode: proteins can be medicines!

Insulin is a protein. 104 years ago, no one with diabetes had been injected with it, then came insulin from animals, then came bioreactors...
New podcast episode of HARD DRUGS!

A hundred years ago, insulin was scraped from pig pancreases.
Today, it’s made by bacteria in giant tanks.

In this episode, we cover 100 years of insulin … in 15 minutes!
100 years of insulin in 15 minutes
open.spotify.com
September 16, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Reposted
Saloni and Jacob have a natural way to make everything sound like it’s the coolest thing in the world, so naturally I’m now all on board of the protein train 🚂
NEW EPISODE of HARD DRUGS!

“5 hours is too long!” some of you said after our first episode. So our second episode is 20 minutes 🤭

@jacobtref.bsky.social and I explore the world of proteins: how proteins fold into complex shapes, why complexity matters, how crowded and dynamic a cell really is.
Proteins: Weird blobs that do important things
open.spotify.com
September 4, 2025 at 4:35 AM
AI for protein design won a Nobel Prize last year. Are new protein drugs to cure diseases on their way?

This episode introduces what proteins are. You can listen to it on its own, or as the first plank of us answering that question. Subscribe in a podcast app for future planks!
NEW EPISODE of HARD DRUGS!

“5 hours is too long!” some of you said after our first episode. So our second episode is 20 minutes 🤭

@jacobtref.bsky.social and I explore the world of proteins: how proteins fold into complex shapes, why complexity matters, how crowded and dynamic a cell really is.
Proteins: Weird blobs that do important things
open.spotify.com
September 3, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Over the weekend I published an essay series on a question I've been thinking about for a while:

What does AI progress mean for medical progress?

It starts with this 500 word piece. If you want more after that, there are 10,000 words of forking paths:

blog.jacobtrefethen.com/ai-progress-...
What does AI progress mean for medical progress?
Rapid AI progress does not automatically mean rapid medical progress. If the point of AI progress is human flourishing, we must make other complementary investments too. Even with extremely powerful A...
blog.jacobtrefethen.com
August 5, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Reposted
The Abundance and Growth Fund at Open Philanthropy is hiring! We’re looking for 2-4 people to help expand this new $120+ million program to accelerate economic growth and reduce the cost of living through strategic grantmaking and research. (1/4) www.openphilanthropy.org/research/ann...
Announcing Our New $120M Abundance And Growth Fund | Open Philanthropy
We are excited to announce the launch of our new Abundance and Growth Fund, which will spend at least $120 million over the next three years to accelerate economic growth and boost scientific and tech...
www.openphilanthropy.org
July 9, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Reposted
July 7, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Reposted
In the 1980s, many thought tuberculosis was on the path to elimination. In reality, more were dying from the disease than ever.

The second article in our series on Tuberculosis: ourworldindata.org/the-end-of-t...
The end of tuberculosis that wasn’t
In the 1980s, many thought tuberculosis was on the path to elimination. In reality, more were dying from the disease than ever.
ourworldindata.org
July 1, 2025 at 6:52 AM
Reposted
I am thankful every day for the work of scientists working to cure HIV/AIDS. We come such a long way.

I lost some amazing people to AIDS and they are missed every single day. I am so happy that this heartbreak can now be avoided thanks to these antivirals.

I still have hope for a cure one day.
Excellent piece on some of the scientists behind lenacapavir, the HIV antiviral that could be scaled up to change the course of the HIV epidemic worldwide.
statnews.com STAT @statnews.com · Jun 23
Gilead’s twice-a-year HIV prevention drug lenacapavir is 30 years in the making. Here’s the story behind it.
www.statnews.com/2025/06/23/f...
June 26, 2025 at 5:52 AM
Reposted
Excellent piece on some of the scientists behind lenacapavir, the HIV antiviral that could be scaled up to change the course of the HIV epidemic worldwide.
June 25, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Reposted
Great article on the origins of lenacapavir, the amazingly effective HIV prevention drug approved by the FDA last week:
bsky.app/profile/sta...
STAT (@statnews.com)
Gilead’s twice-a-year HIV prevention drug lenacapavir is 30 years in the making. Here’s the story behind it. https://www.statnews.com/2025/06/23/fda-approval-lenacapavir-yeztugo-gilead-history-development-breakthrough-william-pao/?utm_source=bluesky&utm_campaign=bluesky_organic&utm_medium=social
bsky.app
June 25, 2025 at 2:47 PM