Jack Worth
@jackworth.bsky.social
Education economist at NFER researching recruitment and retention in the education workforce
Thanks to @nuffieldfoundation.org for funding this work and my colleague Dawson for doing so much of the data-wrangling and number-crunching
Full report: www.nfer.ac.uk/publications...
Full report: www.nfer.ac.uk/publications...
The impact of early career retention payments on teacher retention
This evaluation, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, explores the impact of five early career retention payment schemes, piloted since 2018, on teacher retention in England.
www.nfer.ac.uk
June 26, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Thanks to @nuffieldfoundation.org for funding this work and my colleague Dawson for doing so much of the data-wrangling and number-crunching
Full report: www.nfer.ac.uk/publications...
Full report: www.nfer.ac.uk/publications...
Our analysis implies retention payments have a high marginal cost compared to bursaries
This suggests that a 'bursaries first' policy approach is probably always best, which aligns with the findings from the Maths Phased Bursary evaluation www.gov.uk/government/p...
This suggests that a 'bursaries first' policy approach is probably always best, which aligns with the findings from the Maths Phased Bursary evaluation www.gov.uk/government/p...
June 26, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Our analysis implies retention payments have a high marginal cost compared to bursaries
This suggests that a 'bursaries first' policy approach is probably always best, which aligns with the findings from the Maths Phased Bursary evaluation www.gov.uk/government/p...
This suggests that a 'bursaries first' policy approach is probably always best, which aligns with the findings from the Maths Phased Bursary evaluation www.gov.uk/government/p...
In summary, the retention impacts were somewhat mixed and generally not statistically significant. Overall, it suggested an association with lower retention rates, but wasn't conclusive
June 26, 2025 at 10:06 AM
In summary, the retention impacts were somewhat mixed and generally not statistically significant. Overall, it suggested an association with lower retention rates, but wasn't conclusive
Reposted by Jack Worth
Yesterday, our School Workforce Lead and co-author of the research, @jackworth.bsky.social, spoke to LBC News's Vanessa Baffoe about the findings.
[2/2] 👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcO6...
[2/2] 👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcO6...
LBC News - 9 June 2025
YouTube video by NFER
www.youtube.com
June 10, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Yesterday, our School Workforce Lead and co-author of the research, @jackworth.bsky.social, spoke to LBC News's Vanessa Baffoe about the findings.
[2/2] 👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcO6...
[2/2] 👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcO6...
Short answer: probably. bsky.app/profile/jack...
There are some real positive signs in the latest ITT recruitment data of improvement vs last year, especially in secondary. I will hold off updating the forecast until tomorrow, when targets are published.
But it's interesting to see where the growth is and isn't coming from...🧵
But it's interesting to see where the growth is and isn't coming from...🧵
April 29, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Short answer: probably. bsky.app/profile/jack...
April 29, 2025 at 4:13 PM
indeed very likely so this year, but these targets cover the expected need for the 2026 labour market. Funding during that period uncertain until spending review
April 29, 2025 at 3:43 PM
indeed very likely so this year, but these targets cover the expected need for the 2026 labour market. Funding during that period uncertain until spending review
Worth noting that the long view suggests that the secondary targets have, in general, been unusually high in the last few years.
And that interpreting a time series of %s of target doesn't give the full picture on what's really happening
And that interpreting a time series of %s of target doesn't give the full picture on what's really happening
April 29, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Worth noting that the long view suggests that the secondary targets have, in general, been unusually high in the last few years.
And that interpreting a time series of %s of target doesn't give the full picture on what's really happening
And that interpreting a time series of %s of target doesn't give the full picture on what's really happening
With the uptick in recruitment evident in yesterday's application stats, our overall forecast of the ITT outcomes for Sep 2025 is now looking much more positive
Maths, science, English, primary: all forecast to be at/above target this year
Secondary overall still below target by 15%.
Maths, science, English, primary: all forecast to be at/above target this year
Secondary overall still below target by 15%.
April 29, 2025 at 1:02 PM
With the uptick in recruitment evident in yesterday's application stats, our overall forecast of the ITT outcomes for Sep 2025 is now looking much more positive
Maths, science, English, primary: all forecast to be at/above target this year
Secondary overall still below target by 15%.
Maths, science, English, primary: all forecast to be at/above target this year
Secondary overall still below target by 15%.
The stats release explains that it is due to a number of different factors that have changed since last model, including:
- fewer teachers forecast to leave
- higher ITT recruitment last year than previous
- pupil growth rate decelerating
- more returners
- fewer teachers forecast to leave
- higher ITT recruitment last year than previous
- pupil growth rate decelerating
- more returners
April 29, 2025 at 1:02 PM
The stats release explains that it is due to a number of different factors that have changed since last model, including:
- fewer teachers forecast to leave
- higher ITT recruitment last year than previous
- pupil growth rate decelerating
- more returners
- fewer teachers forecast to leave
- higher ITT recruitment last year than previous
- pupil growth rate decelerating
- more returners
So what could be driving it?
Possibilities:
- shortage subject retention payments bedding in and acting as a recruitment boost (would explain STEM surge)
- cooling labour market (esp in tech: www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releas...)
- impact of last year's 5.5% pay rise
- more marketing (?)
Possibilities:
- shortage subject retention payments bedding in and acting as a recruitment boost (would explain STEM surge)
- cooling labour market (esp in tech: www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releas...)
- impact of last year's 5.5% pay rise
- more marketing (?)
April 28, 2025 at 9:56 AM
So what could be driving it?
Possibilities:
- shortage subject retention payments bedding in and acting as a recruitment boost (would explain STEM surge)
- cooling labour market (esp in tech: www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releas...)
- impact of last year's 5.5% pay rise
- more marketing (?)
Possibilities:
- shortage subject retention payments bedding in and acting as a recruitment boost (would explain STEM surge)
- cooling labour market (esp in tech: www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releas...)
- impact of last year's 5.5% pay rise
- more marketing (?)
It's also mostly from growth in applicants based in England, aside from continued growth in physics recruitment from the rest of the world (where trainees continue to be eligible for a bursary).
April 28, 2025 at 9:56 AM
It's also mostly from growth in applicants based in England, aside from continued growth in physics recruitment from the rest of the world (where trainees continue to be eligible for a bursary).
From what we know about how impactful they are, it's mostly not coming from bursaries this year. The bursaries have not changed much from last year (except for English, where it is the main factor), and nowhere near enough to explain some of the big changes e.g. computing and physics
April 28, 2025 at 9:56 AM
From what we know about how impactful they are, it's mostly not coming from bursaries this year. The bursaries have not changed much from last year (except for English, where it is the main factor), and nowhere near enough to explain some of the big changes e.g. computing and physics