Irish Polling Indicator
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irishpollingind.bsky.social
Irish Polling Indicator
@irishpollingind.bsky.social
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The Irish Polling Indicator combines all opinion polls into estimates of political support for Irish parties and Independents | Maintainer: @stefanmueller.bsky.social
https://pollingindicator.com
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We have added a new section on the accuracy (vote-poll error) of the Irish Polling Indicator estimates in all elections since 1987: pollingindicator.com#validation

Summary of changes: pollingindicator.com/blog/update-...

Thanks to @tomlouwerse.nl for help with updating the interactive graphs.
This graph compares first-preference vote shares in the 2024 General Election with the Irish Polling Indicator estimates released the day before the election. On average, the election results deviated by less than 0.6 percentage points from the Polling Indicator estimate. With the exception of the Green Party and Solidarity-PBP, the Irish Polling Indicator estimates were within the margin of error. To assess the accuracy of polls more systematically, we can calculate the vote-poll error. If the election result matches the polls exactly, the vote-poll error is zero. For example, a vote-poll error of 1 would mean that, on average, the polls were off by one percentage point from the election results across all parties and Independents. The figure below shows polling errors for Irish general elections from 1989 to 2024. Across these nine elections, the estimates were off by 1.23 percentage points from actual first-preference vote shares. This vote-poll error is considerably better than the errors observed in a comparative study of over 30,000 opinion polls from 350 elections in 45 countries. The Irish Polling Indicator achieved a vote-poll error of 0.54 in the 2024 General Election, its most accurate result yet.
February 24, 2025 at 10:20 AM