Mike Beuoy
@inpredict.bsky.social
actuary
creator of inpredictable.com
co-creator of evollve.net
creator of inpredictable.com
co-creator of evollve.net
The Colts decision making when playing the Chiefs on the road:
November 23, 2025 at 11:46 PM
The Colts decision making when playing the Chiefs on the road:
So far, offensive efficiency roughly in line with the post-2022 norm.
November 18, 2025 at 8:07 PM
So far, offensive efficiency roughly in line with the post-2022 norm.
Pace and efficiency trends in the NBA through the 1st 207 games.
Pace slows down as the season progresses, but even accounting for that we're on track for the fastest pace in the play by play era.
Pace slows down as the season progresses, but even accounting for that we're on track for the fastest pace in the play by play era.
November 18, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Pace and efficiency trends in the NBA through the 1st 207 games.
Pace slows down as the season progresses, but even accounting for that we're on track for the fastest pace in the play by play era.
Pace slows down as the season progresses, but even accounting for that we're on track for the fastest pace in the play by play era.
In addition to halting an opponent run, timeouts can be used to "ice the server" in high leverage situations.
As with the results on opponent runs, calling a TO in a high pressure situation does not appear to impact the server's performance on the following point.
3/
As with the results on opponent runs, calling a TO in a high pressure situation does not appear to impact the server's performance on the following point.
3/
November 15, 2025 at 4:29 PM
In addition to halting an opponent run, timeouts can be used to "ice the server" in high leverage situations.
As with the results on opponent runs, calling a TO in a high pressure situation does not appear to impact the server's performance on the following point.
3/
As with the results on opponent runs, calling a TO in a high pressure situation does not appear to impact the server's performance on the following point.
3/
This was a fun topic to dive into, in part because it allows for comparisons to other sports.
The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents:
1/
The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents:
1/
November 15, 2025 at 4:29 PM
This was a fun topic to dive into, in part because it allows for comparisons to other sports.
The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents:
1/
The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents:
1/
Tonight's recap through 8 games:
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
November 11, 2025 at 5:28 AM
Tonight's recap through 8 games:
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
Got Shea Serrano’s “Expensive Basketball” - it’s great having a reason to buy an actual hard copy book at an actual book store.
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
November 9, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Got Shea Serrano’s “Expensive Basketball” - it’s great having a reason to buy an actual hard copy book at an actual book store.
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
I know that the broadcast clock isn’t official but….
November 9, 2025 at 5:26 PM
I know that the broadcast clock isn’t official but….
The Sixers 1st four games of the season:
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
October 29, 2025 at 2:26 AM
The Sixers 1st four games of the season:
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
October 24, 2025 at 2:42 AM
somehow, the live win probabilities returned:
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...
October 22, 2025 at 2:44 AM
somehow, the live win probabilities returned:
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...
NHL betting market rankings (some would call them objective) are now live and updating daily.
The current top 10:
The current top 10:
October 21, 2025 at 4:46 PM
NHL betting market rankings (some would call them objective) are now live and updating daily.
The current top 10:
The current top 10:
Some good advice on the value of grappling with problems on your own, from the Feynman Lectures on Computation:
"What one fool can do, so can another, and the fact that some other fool beat you to it shouldn't disturb you: you should get a kick out of having discovered something"
"What one fool can do, so can another, and the fact that some other fool beat you to it shouldn't disturb you: you should get a kick out of having discovered something"
October 5, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Some good advice on the value of grappling with problems on your own, from the Feynman Lectures on Computation:
"What one fool can do, so can another, and the fact that some other fool beat you to it shouldn't disturb you: you should get a kick out of having discovered something"
"What one fool can do, so can another, and the fact that some other fool beat you to it shouldn't disturb you: you should get a kick out of having discovered something"
🧵 for any stat-obsessed volleyball moms or dads (or students):
I've created some code that will pull publicly available high school data and then use them to create a strength of schedule adjusted team ranking for your league (see thread).
Example for Marymount (a top CA team):
I've created some code that will pull publicly available high school data and then use them to create a strength of schedule adjusted team ranking for your league (see thread).
Example for Marymount (a top CA team):
September 28, 2025 at 3:29 PM
🧵 for any stat-obsessed volleyball moms or dads (or students):
I've created some code that will pull publicly available high school data and then use them to create a strength of schedule adjusted team ranking for your league (see thread).
Example for Marymount (a top CA team):
I've created some code that will pull publicly available high school data and then use them to create a strength of schedule adjusted team ranking for your league (see thread).
Example for Marymount (a top CA team):
The only downside?
If someone sees what you're typing, you look like a crazy person:
If someone sees what you're typing, you look like a crazy person:
September 24, 2025 at 3:29 PM
The only downside?
If someone sees what you're typing, you look like a crazy person:
If someone sees what you're typing, you look like a crazy person:
High School Volleyball stat report: Win probability chart
Daughter's team probably played their best game of the season so far, winning in straight sets on the road.
Not much difference between serve and receive success for this match. The serving team won 49.6% of points.
Daughter's team probably played their best game of the season so far, winning in straight sets on the road.
Not much difference between serve and receive success for this match. The serving team won 49.6% of points.
September 24, 2025 at 3:29 PM
High School Volleyball stat report: Win probability chart
Daughter's team probably played their best game of the season so far, winning in straight sets on the road.
Not much difference between serve and receive success for this match. The serving team won 49.6% of points.
Daughter's team probably played their best game of the season so far, winning in straight sets on the road.
Not much difference between serve and receive success for this match. The serving team won 49.6% of points.
The Mercury came back from 20 down to beat the Lynx. It was the 6th most improbable comeback in the history of the WNBA playoffs.
September 24, 2025 at 2:56 AM
The Mercury came back from 20 down to beat the Lynx. It was the 6th most improbable comeback in the history of the WNBA playoffs.
Indiana playoff basketball
September 20, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Indiana playoff basketball
As an 8.5 point underdog, the Fever weren't favored to win the game until they took the lead with 0:07 left.
September 19, 2025 at 2:35 AM
As an 8.5 point underdog, the Fever weren't favored to win the game until they took the lead with 0:07 left.
Watched Wargames last night for the first time in a long time and I can confirm that it is still an absolute perfect movie.
It’s a movie about the dangers of handing over important decisions to a hallucinating AI.
It’s a movie about the dangers of handing over important decisions to a hallucinating AI.
August 27, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Watched Wargames last night for the first time in a long time and I can confirm that it is still an absolute perfect movie.
It’s a movie about the dangers of handing over important decisions to a hallucinating AI.
It’s a movie about the dangers of handing over important decisions to a hallucinating AI.
Thought of this after seeing Weapons last night (which I really liked):
August 21, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Thought of this after seeing Weapons last night (which I really liked):
The Fever were down by 14 with 6:25 left in the game.
It was the 4th most improbable comeback of the season.
Kelsey Mitchell's +75% win probability added is the 2nd highest mark of the 2025 season.
It was the 4th most improbable comeback of the season.
Kelsey Mitchell's +75% win probability added is the 2nd highest mark of the 2025 season.
August 17, 2025 at 9:07 PM
The Fever were down by 14 with 6:25 left in the game.
It was the 4th most improbable comeback of the season.
Kelsey Mitchell's +75% win probability added is the 2nd highest mark of the 2025 season.
It was the 4th most improbable comeback of the season.
Kelsey Mitchell's +75% win probability added is the 2nd highest mark of the 2025 season.
