Mike Beuoy
@inpredict.bsky.social
actuary
creator of inpredictable.com
co-creator of evollve.net
creator of inpredictable.com
co-creator of evollve.net
Standard caveats apply regarding late game win probability modeling, but the numbers (pulled from the other place) are a toss up:
Go for 2: 0.475*0.0862 + 0.525*0.042 = 0.063
Kick XP: 0.95*0.0647+0.05*0.042 = 0.064
This assumes a 47.5% chance of a 2PT conversion, and a 95% chance of making the XP.
Go for 2: 0.475*0.0862 + 0.525*0.042 = 0.063
Kick XP: 0.95*0.0647+0.05*0.042 = 0.064
This assumes a 47.5% chance of a 2PT conversion, and a 95% chance of making the XP.
If x*0.5 + z*0.5 > y then go for it (roughly).
Has anybody run the win probability numbers? Or are they too miniscule to trust at this level of precision?
3/
Has anybody run the win probability numbers? Or are they too miniscule to trust at this level of precision?
3/
November 29, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Standard caveats apply regarding late game win probability modeling, but the numbers (pulled from the other place) are a toss up:
Go for 2: 0.475*0.0862 + 0.525*0.042 = 0.063
Kick XP: 0.95*0.0647+0.05*0.042 = 0.064
This assumes a 47.5% chance of a 2PT conversion, and a 95% chance of making the XP.
Go for 2: 0.475*0.0862 + 0.525*0.042 = 0.063
Kick XP: 0.95*0.0647+0.05*0.042 = 0.064
This assumes a 47.5% chance of a 2PT conversion, and a 95% chance of making the XP.
On the Eagles going for 2 down 9: The people saying this was an awful decision are clearly wrong.
But I've never been comfortable with the argument that it's optimal because you "know sooner". Your opponent gets the same information. Why doesn't it benefit them?
1/
But I've never been comfortable with the argument that it's optimal because you "know sooner". Your opponent gets the same information. Why doesn't it benefit them?
1/
November 29, 2025 at 3:46 PM
On the Eagles going for 2 down 9: The people saying this was an awful decision are clearly wrong.
But I've never been comfortable with the argument that it's optimal because you "know sooner". Your opponent gets the same information. Why doesn't it benefit them?
1/
But I've never been comfortable with the argument that it's optimal because you "know sooner". Your opponent gets the same information. Why doesn't it benefit them?
1/
Deciding when to abandon a theme park line when the ride breaks down is a real life stopping problem.
And paradoxically, the longer you wait the longer your expected future wait.
5 minutes in: maybe it’s an easy fix and they’ll start soon
25 minutes in: this doesn’t look like and easy fix
And paradoxically, the longer you wait the longer your expected future wait.
5 minutes in: maybe it’s an easy fix and they’ll start soon
25 minutes in: this doesn’t look like and easy fix
November 26, 2025 at 1:22 AM
Deciding when to abandon a theme park line when the ride breaks down is a real life stopping problem.
And paradoxically, the longer you wait the longer your expected future wait.
5 minutes in: maybe it’s an easy fix and they’ll start soon
25 minutes in: this doesn’t look like and easy fix
And paradoxically, the longer you wait the longer your expected future wait.
5 minutes in: maybe it’s an easy fix and they’ll start soon
25 minutes in: this doesn’t look like and easy fix
The Colts decision making when playing the Chiefs on the road:
November 23, 2025 at 11:46 PM
The Colts decision making when playing the Chiefs on the road:
Somebody tell Tony Romo that a field goals doesn’t win the game.
November 23, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Somebody tell Tony Romo that a field goals doesn’t win the game.
Do the opposite of what the opposing teams crowd wants you to do and avoid giving the ball to Patrick Mahomes are pretty good heuristics for 4th down decision making in the NFL.
November 23, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Do the opposite of what the opposing teams crowd wants you to do and avoid giving the ball to Patrick Mahomes are pretty good heuristics for 4th down decision making in the NFL.
Pace and efficiency trends in the NBA through the 1st 207 games.
Pace slows down as the season progresses, but even accounting for that we're on track for the fastest pace in the play by play era.
Pace slows down as the season progresses, but even accounting for that we're on track for the fastest pace in the play by play era.
November 18, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Pace and efficiency trends in the NBA through the 1st 207 games.
Pace slows down as the season progresses, but even accounting for that we're on track for the fastest pace in the play by play era.
Pace slows down as the season progresses, but even accounting for that we're on track for the fastest pace in the play by play era.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
Rolling WIn Probability and Scoring Margin of the Nuggets - Bulls game via dunksandthrees.com/games/22500248
Otherwise known as a visual representation of when the starters vs bench were playing.
Otherwise known as a visual representation of when the starters vs bench were playing.
November 18, 2025 at 4:32 AM
Rolling WIn Probability and Scoring Margin of the Nuggets - Bulls game via dunksandthrees.com/games/22500248
Otherwise known as a visual representation of when the starters vs bench were playing.
Otherwise known as a visual representation of when the starters vs bench were playing.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
If you need an infusion of joy today:
We installed a drum kit in the PTFO studio.
And convinced the GOAT — Bernard “Pretty” Purdie, age 83 — to come play 🐐⤵️ youtu.be/vhdw6lWCb9Y?...
We installed a drum kit in the PTFO studio.
And convinced the GOAT — Bernard “Pretty” Purdie, age 83 — to come play 🐐⤵️ youtu.be/vhdw6lWCb9Y?...
How Drummer Bernard Purdie Made the Soundtrack of Our Lives | PTFO
YouTube video by PABLO TORRE FINDS OUT
youtu.be
November 14, 2025 at 1:26 PM
If you need an infusion of joy today:
We installed a drum kit in the PTFO studio.
And convinced the GOAT — Bernard “Pretty” Purdie, age 83 — to come play 🐐⤵️ youtu.be/vhdw6lWCb9Y?...
We installed a drum kit in the PTFO studio.
And convinced the GOAT — Bernard “Pretty” Purdie, age 83 — to come play 🐐⤵️ youtu.be/vhdw6lWCb9Y?...
This was a fun topic to dive into, in part because it allows for comparisons to other sports.
The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents:
1/
The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents:
1/
November 15, 2025 at 4:29 PM
This was a fun topic to dive into, in part because it allows for comparisons to other sports.
The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents:
1/
The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents:
1/
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
If your team gives up a 5-0 run, you may be hoping your coach calls a timeout
But does it actually help?
@inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data:
evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...
But does it actually help?
@inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data:
evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...
Don't just do something, stand there!
A deep dive into the impact of coaching timeouts in NCAA women's volleyball
evollve.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 8:03 PM
If your team gives up a 5-0 run, you may be hoping your coach calls a timeout
But does it actually help?
@inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data:
evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...
But does it actually help?
@inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data:
evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...
Tonight's recap through 8 games:
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
November 11, 2025 at 5:28 AM
Tonight's recap through 8 games:
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
Shorten the field. Everybody gets six downs and you only need 5 for a 1st down.
November 11, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Shorten the field. Everybody gets six downs and you only need 5 for a 1st down.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
🏐UC San Diego gets revenge in improbable fashion
🏐Double clutch performances in College of Charleston vs William & Mary
🏐Nebraska is the best team in our database
Weekly recap⤵️
evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...
🏐Double clutch performances in College of Charleston vs William & Mary
🏐Nebraska is the best team in our database
Weekly recap⤵️
evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...
Weekly Recap: Week 11
Thank you for supporting Evollve!
evollve.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 6:41 PM
🏐UC San Diego gets revenge in improbable fashion
🏐Double clutch performances in College of Charleston vs William & Mary
🏐Nebraska is the best team in our database
Weekly recap⤵️
evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...
🏐Double clutch performances in College of Charleston vs William & Mary
🏐Nebraska is the best team in our database
Weekly recap⤵️
evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...
Got Shea Serrano’s “Expensive Basketball” - it’s great having a reason to buy an actual hard copy book at an actual book store.
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
November 9, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Got Shea Serrano’s “Expensive Basketball” - it’s great having a reason to buy an actual hard copy book at an actual book store.
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
I like that the Falcons decided they won't kneel out the clock and go to OT.
November 9, 2025 at 5:31 PM
I like that the Falcons decided they won't kneel out the clock and go to OT.
I know that the broadcast clock isn’t official but….
November 9, 2025 at 5:26 PM
I know that the broadcast clock isn’t official but….
Deciding whether the Colts should let them score here has me doing the Larry David meme.
November 9, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Deciding whether the Colts should let them score here has me doing the Larry David meme.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
I run a frankly wonderful website called HockeyViz.com, to which you can subscribe at several different levels, each providing you with joy* and many charts about the NHL. You can subscribe at hockeyviz.com/subscribe, and this thread will tell you what you'll get.
October 18, 2025 at 3:12 PM
I run a frankly wonderful website called HockeyViz.com, to which you can subscribe at several different levels, each providing you with joy* and many charts about the NHL. You can subscribe at hockeyviz.com/subscribe, and this thread will tell you what you'll get.
I got bored and decided to see how many iconic songs I could name that begin with drums only.
Spotify playlist:
open.spotify.com/playlist/606...
Spotify playlist:
open.spotify.com/playlist/606...
Iconic songs that begin with drums only
open.spotify.com
November 4, 2025 at 6:56 PM
I got bored and decided to see how many iconic songs I could name that begin with drums only.
Spotify playlist:
open.spotify.com/playlist/606...
Spotify playlist:
open.spotify.com/playlist/606...
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
Updated ACC projections -- Pitt is the frontrunner, but it may come down to beating Stanford a week from Friday!
November 4, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Updated ACC projections -- Pitt is the frontrunner, but it may come down to beating Stanford a week from Friday!
The Sixers 1st four games of the season:
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
October 29, 2025 at 2:26 AM
The Sixers 1st four games of the season:
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
If you want to get precise and calculate the logarithms, the chances of getting an extra OT in the NBA are the same as getting an extra 2.7 innings of baseball.
2.7 = -log2(0.15)
Under the (possibly faulty) assumption that there is a 50% chance each inning that the game will end.
2.7 = -log2(0.15)
Under the (possibly faulty) assumption that there is a 50% chance each inning that the game will end.
We are now in quadruple overtime territory. In the World Series.
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
Chances that an NBA game in overtime goes to an additional overtime: ~15%
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
October 28, 2025 at 6:44 PM
If you want to get precise and calculate the logarithms, the chances of getting an extra OT in the NBA are the same as getting an extra 2.7 innings of baseball.
2.7 = -log2(0.15)
Under the (possibly faulty) assumption that there is a 50% chance each inning that the game will end.
2.7 = -log2(0.15)
Under the (possibly faulty) assumption that there is a 50% chance each inning that the game will end.
We are now in quadruple overtime territory. In the World Series.
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
Chances that an NBA game in overtime goes to an additional overtime: ~15%
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
October 28, 2025 at 6:32 AM
We are now in quadruple overtime territory. In the World Series.
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3