Æðelwułf
@iamdarkink.bsky.social
King of Wessex. Friend to Mercia.
Average weeks of unemployment is ticking up. Normally this happens at the start of recession. Continuing claims are still low, relative to historical norms, but rising. The job market is getting worse (as the recent jobs numbers indicated).
August 22, 2025 at 5:27 AM
Average weeks of unemployment is ticking up. Normally this happens at the start of recession. Continuing claims are still low, relative to historical norms, but rising. The job market is getting worse (as the recent jobs numbers indicated).
Married filing jointly can already exclude up to 500,000 of cap gains on their residence. For most people that's 100% of their capital gain.
July 22, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Married filing jointly can already exclude up to 500,000 of cap gains on their residence. For most people that's 100% of their capital gain.
Numbers for today are retail sales and unemployment claims. Strong sales and low claim numbers imply the Fed is not looking for a Sept. cut, given the slightly higher inflation number. If Trump fires Powell, expect 10-30 year rates to go up as the independence of the fed is questioned.
July 17, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Numbers for today are retail sales and unemployment claims. Strong sales and low claim numbers imply the Fed is not looking for a Sept. cut, given the slightly higher inflation number. If Trump fires Powell, expect 10-30 year rates to go up as the independence of the fed is questioned.
CPI above expectations but PPI below. While industrial production up? Given that many basic inputs are tariffed, that’s a circle to square.
July 16, 2025 at 2:45 PM
CPI above expectations but PPI below. While industrial production up? Given that many basic inputs are tariffed, that’s a circle to square.
This programming language was originally intended for DoD projects, has been more popular in Europe and with avionics, embedded, and weapons systems. The spike started about the same time the US was becoming an unreliable defense partner. Wonder if it's related?
July 14, 2025 at 1:53 PM
This programming language was originally intended for DoD projects, has been more popular in Europe and with avionics, embedded, and weapons systems. The spike started about the same time the US was becoming an unreliable defense partner. Wonder if it's related?
Okay, I lucked out on this one:
July 10, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Okay, I lucked out on this one:
This is surprising. The weekly number is a little noisy, which is why we normally look at the 4-week moving average. Even though the continuing claims number is inching up, there is still evidence of a strong labor market.
July 10, 2025 at 12:34 PM
This is surprising. The weekly number is a little noisy, which is why we normally look at the 4-week moving average. Even though the continuing claims number is inching up, there is still evidence of a strong labor market.
These are taxes paid by Americans, when they choose to buy foreign made goods.
July 9, 2025 at 8:47 PM
These are taxes paid by Americans, when they choose to buy foreign made goods.
We had an ADP report that was -33k. Yet the May BLS report was revised upward and the payrolls number today was solid, with a drop in unemployment. This was a report I was awaiting because the tariffs are starting to have bite. And it's kind of unusual.
July 3, 2025 at 3:39 PM
We had an ADP report that was -33k. Yet the May BLS report was revised upward and the payrolls number today was solid, with a drop in unemployment. This was a report I was awaiting because the tariffs are starting to have bite. And it's kind of unusual.
So what does a -33k jobs created in ADP mean? First, ADP is highly volatile. 2) It is not as reliable as a statistic as the BLS jobs report. What it does mean is 1) we aren't wrong the labor market is weakening and 2) it suggests a weak jobs number tomorrow.
July 2, 2025 at 2:16 PM
So what does a -33k jobs created in ADP mean? First, ADP is highly volatile. 2) It is not as reliable as a statistic as the BLS jobs report. What it does mean is 1) we aren't wrong the labor market is weakening and 2) it suggests a weak jobs number tomorrow.
So why is the dollar going to slip? The US will have to pay a higher interest rate to finance its spending. Normally that pushes up the dollar, as investors demand US debt. But investors are seeing rank economic mismanagement and choosing to diversify out of dollars.
July 1, 2025 at 5:32 PM
So why is the dollar going to slip? The US will have to pay a higher interest rate to finance its spending. Normally that pushes up the dollar, as investors demand US debt. But investors are seeing rank economic mismanagement and choosing to diversify out of dollars.
The futures market has been pricing in both the bill and the tariff chaos. Why does this matter? As the dollar slides, imports (especially commodities) go up in their dollar denominated price. A lower dollar can be inflationary for metals and energy.
July 1, 2025 at 5:28 PM
The futures market has been pricing in both the bill and the tariff chaos. Why does this matter? As the dollar slides, imports (especially commodities) go up in their dollar denominated price. A lower dollar can be inflationary for metals and energy.
Time to watch the DXY to see how much the markets had already priced it in.
July 1, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Time to watch the DXY to see how much the markets had already priced it in.
What's on the economic calendar for this week? Payrolls is the big event. This is the first report where the tariffs should have an impact. I expect it to be weak, but definitely not negative. Also looking for the revision on last month's number of 139k.
June 30, 2025 at 1:50 PM
What's on the economic calendar for this week? Payrolls is the big event. This is the first report where the tariffs should have an impact. I expect it to be weak, but definitely not negative. Also looking for the revision on last month's number of 139k.
Sorry, @moiradonegan.bsky.social for stealing the image, but This should have been an immediate disqualifier for anyone backing Cuomo. This isn't just a red flag. It's a red flag with a klaxon, warning strobes, and "There Be Monsters Here" on every single map leading to it.
June 30, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Sorry, @moiradonegan.bsky.social for stealing the image, but This should have been an immediate disqualifier for anyone backing Cuomo. This isn't just a red flag. It's a red flag with a klaxon, warning strobes, and "There Be Monsters Here" on every single map leading to it.
We've done a great job of concentrating high paying jobs in a few urban, suburban, and ex-urban areas. While other areas are literally withering. The Covid-19 trend of moving rural lasted a hot 5 minutes and temporarily caused affordability pressure elsewhere. But now reversed.
June 27, 2025 at 2:55 PM
We've done a great job of concentrating high paying jobs in a few urban, suburban, and ex-urban areas. While other areas are literally withering. The Covid-19 trend of moving rural lasted a hot 5 minutes and temporarily caused affordability pressure elsewhere. But now reversed.
Looks like the market is focusing on improved consumer confidence and giving the rest of today's data a little bit of a pass. Although PCE is looking fairly contained at this point.
June 27, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Looks like the market is focusing on improved consumer confidence and giving the rest of today's data a little bit of a pass. Although PCE is looking fairly contained at this point.
There’s something deliciously on point in the NYT’s pumping a stupid gadget that looks like it was designed to keep upper class and rich liberals blind to what’s going on and asleep.
June 18, 2025 at 12:19 PM
There’s something deliciously on point in the NYT’s pumping a stupid gadget that looks like it was designed to keep upper class and rich liberals blind to what’s going on and asleep.
Just going to leave this here.
June 15, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Just going to leave this here.
Stephen Miller, on learning his favorite Baby Shampoo not actually made from babies.
June 15, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Stephen Miller, on learning his favorite Baby Shampoo not actually made from babies.