Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath.bsky.social
"A tireless chronicler and commentator on all things climate" -NYTimes.
Climate research lead @stripe, writer @CarbonBrief, scientist @BerkeleyEarth, IPCC/NCA5 author.
Substack: https://theclimatebrink.substack.com/
Twitter: @hausfath
Climate research lead @stripe, writer @CarbonBrief, scientist @BerkeleyEarth, IPCC/NCA5 author.
Substack: https://theclimatebrink.substack.com/
Twitter: @hausfath
Pinned
Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath.bsky.social
· Jun 30
The great acceleration debate
Why the consilience of evidence points toward acceleration
www.theclimatebrink.com
Is global warming accelerating? Over at The Climate Brink I argue that the consilience of evidence from surface temperatures, climate models, forcing changes, ocean heat content, and earth energy imbalance all point toward yes: www.theclimatebrink....
A number of new estimates of current policy warming by 2100 have been released in recent months, including three prominent ones from UNEP, IEA, and CAT in the run-up to COP30.
I've got a new piece over at The Climate Brink digging into the details: www.theclimatebrink....
I've got a new piece over at The Climate Brink digging into the details: www.theclimatebrink....
November 14, 2025 at 6:52 PM
A number of new estimates of current policy warming by 2100 have been released in recent months, including three prominent ones from UNEP, IEA, and CAT in the run-up to COP30.
I've got a new piece over at The Climate Brink digging into the details: www.theclimatebrink....
I've got a new piece over at The Climate Brink digging into the details: www.theclimatebrink....
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
If CO2 emissions go to zero in 2050 (top), the sinks (green) will bring atmospheric CO2 back down (middle), & temperature will stabalise at ~1.7°C (bottom).
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 14, 2025 at 8:23 AM
If CO2 emissions go to zero in 2050 (top), the sinks (green) will bring atmospheric CO2 back down (middle), & temperature will stabalise at ~1.7°C (bottom).
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Published today in Earth System Science Data: The Global Carbon Budget 2025
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
Global Carbon Budget 2025
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to bette...
essd.copernicus.org
November 13, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Published today in Earth System Science Data: The Global Carbon Budget 2025
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
NEW – Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to set new record in 2025, as land sink ‘recovers’ | @hausfath.bsky.social @pfriedling.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/F4rY1GP
Read here: buff.ly/F4rY1GP
November 13, 2025 at 12:01 AM
NEW – Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to set new record in 2025, as land sink ‘recovers’ | @hausfath.bsky.social @pfriedling.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/F4rY1GP
Read here: buff.ly/F4rY1GP
The new 2025 Global Carbon Budget finds that fossil fuel emissions will reach a new high in 2025. Total CO2 emissions (including land use) remain flat at 2024 levels.
While the land sink is up from 2024, carbon sinks are weakening: www.carbonbrief.org/...
While the land sink is up from 2024, carbon sinks are weakening: www.carbonbrief.org/...
November 13, 2025 at 3:25 AM
The new 2025 Global Carbon Budget finds that fossil fuel emissions will reach a new high in 2025. Total CO2 emissions (including land use) remain flat at 2024 levels.
While the land sink is up from 2024, carbon sinks are weakening: www.carbonbrief.org/...
While the land sink is up from 2024, carbon sinks are weakening: www.carbonbrief.org/...
There are a lot of things I agree with in Bill Gates' new climate memo, but I think it sets up a false dichotomy between reducing emissions and helping the world's poorest. I've put together a piece with my thoughts over at TCB:
On the Gates climate memo
There is a lot of things I agree with in Bill Gates’ new memo on climate change, but I think it fundamentally sets up a false dichotomy.
www.theclimatebrink.com
November 5, 2025 at 5:25 PM
There are a lot of things I agree with in Bill Gates' new climate memo, but I think it sets up a false dichotomy between reducing emissions and helping the world's poorest. I've put together a piece with my thoughts over at TCB:
The new UNEP report is out with the latest estimates of 2100 warming outcomes under current policies, NDCs, and net-zero targets. Here is how it compares to both the IPCC scenarios and other estimates (CAT and IEA, who will release their own updates soon!).
November 4, 2025 at 6:05 PM
The new UNEP report is out with the latest estimates of 2100 warming outcomes under current policies, NDCs, and net-zero targets. Here is how it compares to both the IPCC scenarios and other estimates (CAT and IEA, who will release their own updates soon!).
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Read about the Gates memo in the news? Wondering what @kimcobb.bsky.social, @hausfath.bsky.social, @weatherwest.bsky.social, @sammyroth.bsky.social and I think about it?
No need to wonder: @coveringclimatenow.org is hosting a free webinar panel. Join us THIS AFTERNOON:
No need to wonder: @coveringclimatenow.org is hosting a free webinar panel. Join us THIS AFTERNOON:
The Bill Gates Memo: Climate Scientists Respond With Urgency — Covering Climate Now
Ahead of this month’s COP30 summit in Brazil, billionaire investor Bill Gates is advising world leaders that global warming “will not lead to humanity’s demise” and that effort to reducing emissions a...
coveringclimatenow.org
November 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Read about the Gates memo in the news? Wondering what @kimcobb.bsky.social, @hausfath.bsky.social, @weatherwest.bsky.social, @sammyroth.bsky.social and I think about it?
No need to wonder: @coveringclimatenow.org is hosting a free webinar panel. Join us THIS AFTERNOON:
No need to wonder: @coveringclimatenow.org is hosting a free webinar panel. Join us THIS AFTERNOON:
Your daily dose of climate hope. From the team at RMI: rmi.org/wp-content/u...
November 3, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Your daily dose of climate hope. From the team at RMI: rmi.org/wp-content/u...
There has been a lot of recent interest in mitigating "super pollutants", short-lived climate pollutants like methane and refrigerants. We should cut emissions, but using them as carbon offsets risks breaking the math of net zero: www.theclimatebrink....
November 3, 2025 at 4:30 PM
There has been a lot of recent interest in mitigating "super pollutants", short-lived climate pollutants like methane and refrigerants. We should cut emissions, but using them as carbon offsets risks breaking the math of net zero: www.theclimatebrink....
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
I wanted to offer some thoughts on the Gates climate memo that has been circulating this week. While I can't directly speak for others, I can say that my own response is one of dismay & deep frustration (and that this view is shared by many climate/Earth scientists). [1/n]
October 30, 2025 at 5:02 PM
I wanted to offer some thoughts on the Gates climate memo that has been circulating this week. While I can't directly speak for others, I can say that my own response is one of dismay & deep frustration (and that this view is shared by many climate/Earth scientists). [1/n]
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Climate change DEFINITELY affects hurricane:
STRENGTH: Warmer water is hurricane food
RAINFALL: Warm air holds more water vapor
SURGE: Warmer water expands, warmer ice melts, sea levels rise
PREDICTION: hotter seas mean faster intensification
STRENGTH: Warmer water is hurricane food
RAINFALL: Warm air holds more water vapor
SURGE: Warmer water expands, warmer ice melts, sea levels rise
PREDICTION: hotter seas mean faster intensification
October 28, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Climate change DEFINITELY affects hurricane:
STRENGTH: Warmer water is hurricane food
RAINFALL: Warm air holds more water vapor
SURGE: Warmer water expands, warmer ice melts, sea levels rise
PREDICTION: hotter seas mean faster intensification
STRENGTH: Warmer water is hurricane food
RAINFALL: Warm air holds more water vapor
SURGE: Warmer water expands, warmer ice melts, sea levels rise
PREDICTION: hotter seas mean faster intensification
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
This is cool, 6 million year old ice from Antartica with inferred temperature ~12°C warmer than the late Pleistocene. No CO2 level yet! (That will be highly anticipated!)
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
www.pnas.org
October 28, 2025 at 8:51 PM
This is cool, 6 million year old ice from Antartica with inferred temperature ~12°C warmer than the late Pleistocene. No CO2 level yet! (That will be highly anticipated!)
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
To quote my friend @drkatemarvel.bsky.social, climate change won't make humanity extinct but we can do better than "not extinct". Raise your standards people!
October 28, 2025 at 8:46 PM
To quote my friend @drkatemarvel.bsky.social, climate change won't make humanity extinct but we can do better than "not extinct". Raise your standards people!
After a modest decline over the first half of the year (and after record 2024 warmth), global temperatures are ticking back up. The past two days have been the warmest on record for this time of year in ERA5 and the highest temperature anomalies since January.
October 28, 2025 at 3:36 PM
After a modest decline over the first half of the year (and after record 2024 warmth), global temperatures are ticking back up. The past two days have been the warmest on record for this time of year in ERA5 and the highest temperature anomalies since January.
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
I’ve never been shy nor ashamed of the fact that the core of my research is around SRM. I think there is merit in research: if we can show there are ways to ameliorate current and future climate change, we should know. If there aren’t, or if SRM could be used to make things worse, we should know.
October 25, 2025 at 2:43 AM
I’ve never been shy nor ashamed of the fact that the core of my research is around SRM. I think there is merit in research: if we can show there are ways to ameliorate current and future climate change, we should know. If there aren’t, or if SRM could be used to make things worse, we should know.
September 2025 was the third warmest on record in the Berkeley Earth dataset. But this downplays how anomalous it was; without 2023 and 2024 this year would have been well above any prior records and well above the long-term trend:
October 23, 2025 at 9:43 PM
September 2025 was the third warmest on record in the Berkeley Earth dataset. But this downplays how anomalous it was; without 2023 and 2024 this year would have been well above any prior records and well above the long-term trend:
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
🌍 Berkeley Earth Monthly Press Briefing
📅 Thur 10/23 | 8 AM PDT / 5 PM CET
Join @rarohde.bsky.social , @hausfath.bsky.social, and our team for insights from the September 2025 Temperature Report + a live Q&A.
🔗 Register: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
📅 Thur 10/23 | 8 AM PDT / 5 PM CET
Join @rarohde.bsky.social , @hausfath.bsky.social, and our team for insights from the September 2025 Temperature Report + a live Q&A.
🔗 Register: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
October 16, 2025 at 3:56 PM
🌍 Berkeley Earth Monthly Press Briefing
📅 Thur 10/23 | 8 AM PDT / 5 PM CET
Join @rarohde.bsky.social , @hausfath.bsky.social, and our team for insights from the September 2025 Temperature Report + a live Q&A.
🔗 Register: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
📅 Thur 10/23 | 8 AM PDT / 5 PM CET
Join @rarohde.bsky.social , @hausfath.bsky.social, and our team for insights from the September 2025 Temperature Report + a live Q&A.
🔗 Register: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Picture how big the Hoover Dam is. An absolute unit. The Hoover Dam has a power capacity of 2 gigawatts (GW).
The solar farm that the Admin just cancelled could have produces 6.2 GW of power. That's more than 3 Hoover Dams.
The solar farm that the Admin just cancelled could have produces 6.2 GW of power. That's more than 3 Hoover Dams.
SCOOP: The Bureau of Land Management says the largest solar project in Nevada — the Esmeralda 7 mega-farm — has been canceled
The news was quietly dropped via a sudden website update with no public word from any of the companies involved or a statement from the agency
@heatmap.news
The news was quietly dropped via a sudden website update with no public word from any of the companies involved or a statement from the agency
@heatmap.news
Esmeralda 7 Solar Project Has Been Canceled, BLM Says
It would have delivered a gargantuan 6.2 gigawatts of power.
heatmap.news
October 10, 2025 at 4:00 AM
Picture how big the Hoover Dam is. An absolute unit. The Hoover Dam has a power capacity of 2 gigawatts (GW).
The solar farm that the Admin just cancelled could have produces 6.2 GW of power. That's more than 3 Hoover Dams.
The solar farm that the Admin just cancelled could have produces 6.2 GW of power. That's more than 3 Hoover Dams.
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Koonin spending an entire WSJ column criticizing @nationalacademies.org’s report for not being a review of his DOE climate contrarian report when (1) to my knowledge, the Academies have never reviewed a gov’t report without being asked (though such an independent review, or comparable, is necessary…
Opinion | Another Tale of Climate Change Bias
The government should stop funding the National Academies’ climate studies until they shed the political conformity.
www.wsj.com
October 8, 2025 at 1:45 AM
Koonin spending an entire WSJ column criticizing @nationalacademies.org’s report for not being a review of his DOE climate contrarian report when (1) to my knowledge, the Academies have never reviewed a gov’t report without being asked (though such an independent review, or comparable, is necessary…
Renewables (primarily solar and wind) have grown dramatically over the past five years while other electricity sources have been relatively flat. Renewables are on track to generate more electricity than coal in 2025 (and already have over H1 of the year):
October 7, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Renewables (primarily solar and wind) have grown dramatically over the past five years while other electricity sources have been relatively flat. Renewables are on track to generate more electricity than coal in 2025 (and already have over H1 of the year):
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
The @metoffice.gov.uk use weather station observations to reconstruct changes in UK average temperature since 1884.
@copernicusecmwf.bsky.social produce the ERA5 reanalysis which reconstructs global weather every hour back to 1950 using a weather forecast model.
Their estimates agree. Just sayin'.
@copernicusecmwf.bsky.social produce the ERA5 reanalysis which reconstructs global weather every hour back to 1950 using a weather forecast model.
Their estimates agree. Just sayin'.
October 6, 2025 at 9:03 AM
The @metoffice.gov.uk use weather station observations to reconstruct changes in UK average temperature since 1884.
@copernicusecmwf.bsky.social produce the ERA5 reanalysis which reconstructs global weather every hour back to 1950 using a weather forecast model.
Their estimates agree. Just sayin'.
@copernicusecmwf.bsky.social produce the ERA5 reanalysis which reconstructs global weather every hour back to 1950 using a weather forecast model.
Their estimates agree. Just sayin'.
Around 78% of the world has seen all-time maximum monthly temperature records set since the year 2000, with 38% set in past five years alone. In a new analysis over at The Climate Brink I take a look at where and when records were set: www.theclimatebrink....
October 6, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Around 78% of the world has seen all-time maximum monthly temperature records set since the year 2000, with 38% set in past five years alone. In a new analysis over at The Climate Brink I take a look at where and when records were set: www.theclimatebrink....
September 2025 was the third warmest September on record at 1.47C above preindustrial levels in ERA5, behind only the prior two years (2023 and 2024).
With 9 months of the year now in, I estimate 2025 will approximately tie with 2023 for the second warmest year on record at ~1.48C.
With 9 months of the year now in, I estimate 2025 will approximately tie with 2023 for the second warmest year on record at ~1.48C.
October 3, 2025 at 5:34 PM
September 2025 was the third warmest September on record at 1.47C above preindustrial levels in ERA5, behind only the prior two years (2023 and 2024).
With 9 months of the year now in, I estimate 2025 will approximately tie with 2023 for the second warmest year on record at ~1.48C.
With 9 months of the year now in, I estimate 2025 will approximately tie with 2023 for the second warmest year on record at ~1.48C.
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
"God will ask us if we have cultivated and cared for the world that he created for the benefit of all and for future generations, and if we have taken care of our brothers and sisters - what will be our answer, my dear friends?"
Pope Leo hits out at critics of global warming
In his first major statement on climate change, the pontiff criticises those who minimise climate change.
www.bbc.com
October 2, 2025 at 9:58 PM
"God will ask us if we have cultivated and cared for the world that he created for the benefit of all and for future generations, and if we have taken care of our brothers and sisters - what will be our answer, my dear friends?"