Harvir Dhillon
@harvirdhillon.bsky.social
Economist at the British Retail Consortium 🛍️
UK macro, retail and #costofliving 📈👨🏽💻🇬🇧
Opinions my own etc
Formerly Experian
Leicestershire, United Kingdom 🦊
UK macro, retail and #costofliving 📈👨🏽💻🇬🇧
Opinions my own etc
Formerly Experian
Leicestershire, United Kingdom 🦊
Reposted by Harvir Dhillon
stirlingretail.com/2026/01/26/r...
ICYMI: Our post from yesterday (26/01). The second of a two part pair. This by @vacantshopsacademy.bsky.social on proactive and practical steps to tackle vacancy in our high streets.
ICYMI: Our post from yesterday (26/01). The second of a two part pair. This by @vacantshopsacademy.bsky.social on proactive and practical steps to tackle vacancy in our high streets.
January 27, 2026 at 9:12 AM
stirlingretail.com/2026/01/26/r...
ICYMI: Our post from yesterday (26/01). The second of a two part pair. This by @vacantshopsacademy.bsky.social on proactive and practical steps to tackle vacancy in our high streets.
ICYMI: Our post from yesterday (26/01). The second of a two part pair. This by @vacantshopsacademy.bsky.social on proactive and practical steps to tackle vacancy in our high streets.
🛍️ Deflation’s retreat: Shop prices pick up in January
The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor suggests prices picked up at their fastest pace in almost a year.
The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor suggests prices picked up at their fastest pace in almost a year.
January 27, 2026 at 8:05 AM
🛍️ Deflation’s retreat: Shop prices pick up in January
The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor suggests prices picked up at their fastest pace in almost a year.
The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor suggests prices picked up at their fastest pace in almost a year.
Reposted by Harvir Dhillon
Mixed signals from the GfK survey of consumer confidence. but one positive is the improvement in the outlook for personal finances... 👇
Hopes of lower inflation and lower interest rates may be offsetting fears of higher taxes and rising unemployment... (1/2)
nielseniq.com/global/en/ne...
Hopes of lower inflation and lower interest rates may be offsetting fears of higher taxes and rising unemployment... (1/2)
nielseniq.com/global/en/ne...
January 23, 2026 at 7:59 AM
Mixed signals from the GfK survey of consumer confidence. but one positive is the improvement in the outlook for personal finances... 👇
Hopes of lower inflation and lower interest rates may be offsetting fears of higher taxes and rising unemployment... (1/2)
nielseniq.com/global/en/ne...
Hopes of lower inflation and lower interest rates may be offsetting fears of higher taxes and rising unemployment... (1/2)
nielseniq.com/global/en/ne...
Caveat however being that larger retailers performed worse than smaller retailers. In annual terms, larger retailers saw sales drop 1.6% and smaller retailers were up 6.4%.
Nonetheless, we observe an improvement in sales this most recent golden quarter, as compared to 2024, of 2.1%, which is the fastest since 2020.
January 23, 2026 at 7:38 AM
Caveat however being that larger retailers performed worse than smaller retailers. In annual terms, larger retailers saw sales drop 1.6% and smaller retailers were up 6.4%.
Retail sales volumes were lower in Q4 vs Q3, but on the month we did see an increase in sales volumes of 0.4%.
January 23, 2026 at 7:24 AM
Retail sales volumes were lower in Q4 vs Q3, but on the month we did see an increase in sales volumes of 0.4%.
Slight increase in inflation, driven by a few factors, principally alcohol and tobacco, followed by transport (earlier collection than usual of flight ticket prices) as well as hospitality, fashion and food.
January 21, 2026 at 7:20 AM
Slight increase in inflation, driven by a few factors, principally alcohol and tobacco, followed by transport (earlier collection than usual of flight ticket prices) as well as hospitality, fashion and food.
Reposted by Harvir Dhillon
📉 In the least surprising news ever, if the government makes it more expensive for retail and hospitality businesses to employ people, then they will - SURPRISE - employ fewer people!
January 20, 2026 at 8:48 AM
📉 In the least surprising news ever, if the government makes it more expensive for retail and hospitality businesses to employ people, then they will - SURPRISE - employ fewer people!
Reposted by Harvir Dhillon
For more insight into our Retail Sales Monitor, follow BRC Economist @harvirdhillon.bsky.social 👇
🛍️ A "drab" Christmas for UK retail. 🎄
The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social Retail Sales Monitor reveals a somewhat tepid end to 2025.
The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social Retail Sales Monitor reveals a somewhat tepid end to 2025.
January 13, 2026 at 10:05 AM
For more insight into our Retail Sales Monitor, follow BRC Economist @harvirdhillon.bsky.social 👇
Reposted by Harvir Dhillon
📉 The point here is that the "slowest growth" headlines were driven by food sales. Non-food retail actually *declined* in December 2025. Ignoring Easter/Black Friday phasing effects, it was the worst decline for over a year...
How does "cozzie livs" affect retail? Now you know 👇
How does "cozzie livs" affect retail? Now you know 👇
📉 Non-food retailers faced a distinct chill, with sales slipping 0.5%. Many shoppers clearly held their nerve, bypassing the pre-Christmas rush to wait for the Boxing Day clearance. Gifting items, in particular, underperformed expectations in a crowded market.
January 13, 2026 at 9:58 AM
📉 The point here is that the "slowest growth" headlines were driven by food sales. Non-food retail actually *declined* in December 2025. Ignoring Easter/Black Friday phasing effects, it was the worst decline for over a year...
How does "cozzie livs" affect retail? Now you know 👇
How does "cozzie livs" affect retail? Now you know 👇
Sales rankings show that toys & baby equipment did particularly well, followed by food (as usual) and then computing.
January 13, 2026 at 7:59 AM
Sales rankings show that toys & baby equipment did particularly well, followed by food (as usual) and then computing.
🛍️ A "drab" Christmas for UK retail. 🎄
The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social Retail Sales Monitor reveals a somewhat tepid end to 2025.
The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social Retail Sales Monitor reveals a somewhat tepid end to 2025.
January 13, 2026 at 7:58 AM
🛍️ A "drab" Christmas for UK retail. 🎄
The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social Retail Sales Monitor reveals a somewhat tepid end to 2025.
The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social Retail Sales Monitor reveals a somewhat tepid end to 2025.
You can see the detailed category performance in the thread below but here's the overall rankings. Computers, phones, TVs, second-hand goods and independent food all growing well, in volume terms.
December 19, 2025 at 7:54 AM
You can see the detailed category performance in the thread below but here's the overall rankings. Computers, phones, TVs, second-hand goods and independent food all growing well, in volume terms.
Bit of a mixed bag in terms of retail sales growth, with non-food witnessing most of the growth, and food continuing to struggle. Food volumes are 2.8% lower than a year ago, whereas non-food volumes are 4.6% higher.
December 19, 2025 at 7:24 AM
Bit of a mixed bag in terms of retail sales growth, with non-food witnessing most of the growth, and food continuing to struggle. Food volumes are 2.8% lower than a year ago, whereas non-food volumes are 4.6% higher.
Reposted by Harvir Dhillon
...and retail (and hospitality) are taking the brunt of the cuts. Good luck finding entry-level jobs to ease young people and NEETs into the workplace...
Retail jobs continue to head downwards. On current trends, we'll get below 2.5 million jobs before the end of the decade.
December 16, 2025 at 12:05 PM
...and retail (and hospitality) are taking the brunt of the cuts. Good luck finding entry-level jobs to ease young people and NEETs into the workplace...
Retail jobs continue to head downwards. On current trends, we'll get below 2.5 million jobs before the end of the decade.
December 16, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Retail jobs continue to head downwards. On current trends, we'll get below 2.5 million jobs before the end of the decade.
What's interesting about UK GDP is just how badly production industries have performed over the past few years. Also, services (the main driver hitherto) are now weighing on GDP for the first time since 2023.
December 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
What's interesting about UK GDP is just how badly production industries have performed over the past few years. Also, services (the main driver hitherto) are now weighing on GDP for the first time since 2023.
The full Retail Sales Monitor report with a detailed category breakdown is accessible here ⤵
December 9, 2025 at 8:35 AM
The full Retail Sales Monitor report with a detailed category breakdown is accessible here ⤵
📉 Pre-Budget jitters dampen Black Friday
The @the_brc - @KPMGUK UK retail sales measure rose 1.4% YoY in November. Despite Black Friday falling within this year’s window, sales growth was muted as shoppers held back amid economic uncertainty. 📊
The @the_brc - @KPMGUK UK retail sales measure rose 1.4% YoY in November. Despite Black Friday falling within this year’s window, sales growth was muted as shoppers held back amid economic uncertainty. 📊
December 9, 2025 at 8:08 AM
📉 Pre-Budget jitters dampen Black Friday
The @the_brc - @KPMGUK UK retail sales measure rose 1.4% YoY in November. Despite Black Friday falling within this year’s window, sales growth was muted as shoppers held back amid economic uncertainty. 📊
The @the_brc - @KPMGUK UK retail sales measure rose 1.4% YoY in November. Despite Black Friday falling within this year’s window, sales growth was muted as shoppers held back amid economic uncertainty. 📊
🛍️ Spoke with BBC Radio London on the rise of pre-loved goods sales 👇🏽
December 4, 2025 at 9:29 AM
🛍️ Spoke with BBC Radio London on the rise of pre-loved goods sales 👇🏽
🛍️ Fierce competition brings early Black Friday deals
Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering November 2025.
Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering November 2025.
December 2, 2025 at 8:03 AM
🛍️ Fierce competition brings early Black Friday deals
Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering November 2025.
Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering November 2025.
A lot of you like to know which food and drink products you can expect to have paid more for. Here are the top 25 movers. Not good for pizza lovers 🍕
November 19, 2025 at 7:48 AM
A lot of you like to know which food and drink products you can expect to have paid more for. Here are the top 25 movers. Not good for pizza lovers 🍕
Signal from the output PPI is of persistence though. This suggests inflationary pressures for goods leaving the factory-gate (particularly cars, food and clothing) do remain.
November 19, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Signal from the output PPI is of persistence though. This suggests inflationary pressures for goods leaving the factory-gate (particularly cars, food and clothing) do remain.
CPI doesn't fall quite as much as was expected (3.6%, down from 3.8%), primarily down to a sharp monthly increase in food prices and a lesser increase in recreation and culture.
November 19, 2025 at 7:23 AM
CPI doesn't fall quite as much as was expected (3.6%, down from 3.8%), primarily down to a sharp monthly increase in food prices and a lesser increase in recreation and culture.
Reposted by Harvir Dhillon
People in the UK: "Hold my coffee"
*yoy = inflation since Labour took office
(HT: @harvirdhillon.bsky.social)
*yoy = inflation since Labour took office
(HT: @harvirdhillon.bsky.social)
November 18, 2025 at 8:38 AM
People in the UK: "Hold my coffee"
*yoy = inflation since Labour took office
(HT: @harvirdhillon.bsky.social)
*yoy = inflation since Labour took office
(HT: @harvirdhillon.bsky.social)