Gregory Daco
@gregdaco.bsky.social
Chief Economist @ EY EY-Parthenon
Vice President @ NABE
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt. Football player (the real one). Once-a-year triathlete. Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
Vice President @ NABE
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt. Football player (the real one). Once-a-year triathlete. Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
📉Depressed US consumers! The Conference Board consumer confidence index -6.0pt to 88.7 in Nov: 19% below Dec 2024
🔻Present situation: -4.3pt to 126.9
🔻Expectations: -8.6pt to 63.2
⚠️Confidence depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects: #inflation, #tariffs & #politics
🔻Present situation: -4.3pt to 126.9
🔻Expectations: -8.6pt to 63.2
⚠️Confidence depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects: #inflation, #tariffs & #politics
November 25, 2025 at 3:35 PM
📉Depressed US consumers! The Conference Board consumer confidence index -6.0pt to 88.7 in Nov: 19% below Dec 2024
🔻Present situation: -4.3pt to 126.9
🔻Expectations: -8.6pt to 63.2
⚠️Confidence depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects: #inflation, #tariffs & #politics
🔻Present situation: -4.3pt to 126.9
🔻Expectations: -8.6pt to 63.2
⚠️Confidence depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects: #inflation, #tariffs & #politics
⚠️The ADP weekly pulse on private sector employment is not yet a mature time series with less than 15 data points
🔻So while weekly prints should be taken with a grain of salt (-54k in 4 weeks to November 8), the direction of travel is concerning
⛔️Labor demand is softening
🔻So while weekly prints should be taken with a grain of salt (-54k in 4 weeks to November 8), the direction of travel is concerning
⛔️Labor demand is softening
November 25, 2025 at 3:18 PM
⚠️The ADP weekly pulse on private sector employment is not yet a mature time series with less than 15 data points
🔻So while weekly prints should be taken with a grain of salt (-54k in 4 weeks to November 8), the direction of travel is concerning
⛔️Labor demand is softening
🔻So while weekly prints should be taken with a grain of salt (-54k in 4 weeks to November 8), the direction of travel is concerning
⛔️Labor demand is softening
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, your #Thanksgiving dinner will cost you 5% less this year; largely because of a 16% drop in turkey prices
"While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring deals to draw demand"
www.fb.org/news-release...
"While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring deals to draw demand"
www.fb.org/news-release...
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, your #Thanksgiving dinner will cost you 5% less this year; largely because of a 16% drop in turkey prices
"While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring deals to draw demand"
www.fb.org/news-release...
"While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring deals to draw demand"
www.fb.org/news-release...
⚠️It's subtle but the margin squeeze is real...
📉Wholesalers and retailers are eating part of the cost increases from #tariffs amidst increased consumer price sensitivity
📉Wholesalers and retailers are eating part of the cost increases from #tariffs amidst increased consumer price sensitivity
November 25, 2025 at 2:51 PM
⚠️It's subtle but the margin squeeze is real...
📉Wholesalers and retailers are eating part of the cost increases from #tariffs amidst increased consumer price sensitivity
📉Wholesalers and retailers are eating part of the cost increases from #tariffs amidst increased consumer price sensitivity
❗️Delicate pricing environment...
✅PPI #inflation: 2.7% y/y (flat) in September
✅Down from 11.7% in Mar '22
🟠Upper-end of 2016-19 range
✅Core PPI 2.9% y/y (flat)
✅Down from 7.1% in Mar '22
🟠Higher than 2.5% in Nov '23 & rising
✅PPI #inflation: 2.7% y/y (flat) in September
✅Down from 11.7% in Mar '22
🟠Upper-end of 2016-19 range
✅Core PPI 2.9% y/y (flat)
✅Down from 7.1% in Mar '22
🟠Higher than 2.5% in Nov '23 & rising
November 25, 2025 at 2:23 PM
❗️Delicate pricing environment...
✅PPI #inflation: 2.7% y/y (flat) in September
✅Down from 11.7% in Mar '22
🟠Upper-end of 2016-19 range
✅Core PPI 2.9% y/y (flat)
✅Down from 7.1% in Mar '22
🟠Higher than 2.5% in Nov '23 & rising
✅PPI #inflation: 2.7% y/y (flat) in September
✅Down from 11.7% in Mar '22
🟠Upper-end of 2016-19 range
✅Core PPI 2.9% y/y (flat)
✅Down from 7.1% in Mar '22
🟠Higher than 2.5% in Nov '23 & rising
Key take-aways:
⛽️Energy was a key swing factor (60% from gasoline)
📈#Tariffs passthrough building via core goods
💡Business markups swinging wildly, last couple of months indicate a squeeze in margins for final demand trade services (margins for retailers & wholesalers)
⛽️Energy was a key swing factor (60% from gasoline)
📈#Tariffs passthrough building via core goods
💡Business markups swinging wildly, last couple of months indicate a squeeze in margins for final demand trade services (margins for retailers & wholesalers)
November 25, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Key take-aways:
⛽️Energy was a key swing factor (60% from gasoline)
📈#Tariffs passthrough building via core goods
💡Business markups swinging wildly, last couple of months indicate a squeeze in margins for final demand trade services (margins for retailers & wholesalers)
⛽️Energy was a key swing factor (60% from gasoline)
📈#Tariffs passthrough building via core goods
💡Business markups swinging wildly, last couple of months indicate a squeeze in margins for final demand trade services (margins for retailers & wholesalers)
US PPI #inflation steady (Sep) as higher gas & #tariffs pressure offset by margin squeeze
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
November 25, 2025 at 2:15 PM
US PPI #inflation steady (Sep) as higher gas & #tariffs pressure offset by margin squeeze
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
👀Momentum in #retail sales remains robust, but it's been slowing for 6 months
✅#Retail sales +4.3% y/y in September
✅Core retail sales +4.1% y/y
Volumes trend is more subdued:
🟡Inflation-adjusted retail sales +1.2% y/y
🟡Inflation-adjusted core sales only +1.1% y/y
✅#Retail sales +4.3% y/y in September
✅Core retail sales +4.1% y/y
Volumes trend is more subdued:
🟡Inflation-adjusted retail sales +1.2% y/y
🟡Inflation-adjusted core sales only +1.1% y/y
November 25, 2025 at 2:05 PM
👀Momentum in #retail sales remains robust, but it's been slowing for 6 months
✅#Retail sales +4.3% y/y in September
✅Core retail sales +4.1% y/y
Volumes trend is more subdued:
🟡Inflation-adjusted retail sales +1.2% y/y
🟡Inflation-adjusted core sales only +1.1% y/y
✅#Retail sales +4.3% y/y in September
✅Core retail sales +4.1% y/y
Volumes trend is more subdued:
🟡Inflation-adjusted retail sales +1.2% y/y
🟡Inflation-adjusted core sales only +1.1% y/y
Soft US #Retail sales in September
🟠Sales +0.2%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted -0.1%
⛔️Core sales -0.1%
⛔️Volumes -0.4%
⛽️Gas 2.0%
⚕️Health 1.1%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.7%
🛋️Furn 0.6%
🛒Groc 0.2%
🏠Build mat 0.2%
🏬Merch 0.1%
🚗Auto -0.3%
🎮Elec -0.5%
💻Online -0.7%
👗Cloth -0.7%
⚽️Sports -2.5%
🟠Sales +0.2%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted -0.1%
⛔️Core sales -0.1%
⛔️Volumes -0.4%
⛽️Gas 2.0%
⚕️Health 1.1%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.7%
🛋️Furn 0.6%
🛒Groc 0.2%
🏠Build mat 0.2%
🏬Merch 0.1%
🚗Auto -0.3%
🎮Elec -0.5%
💻Online -0.7%
👗Cloth -0.7%
⚽️Sports -2.5%
November 25, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Soft US #Retail sales in September
🟠Sales +0.2%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted -0.1%
⛔️Core sales -0.1%
⛔️Volumes -0.4%
⛽️Gas 2.0%
⚕️Health 1.1%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.7%
🛋️Furn 0.6%
🛒Groc 0.2%
🏠Build mat 0.2%
🏬Merch 0.1%
🚗Auto -0.3%
🎮Elec -0.5%
💻Online -0.7%
👗Cloth -0.7%
⚽️Sports -2.5%
🟠Sales +0.2%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted -0.1%
⛔️Core sales -0.1%
⛔️Volumes -0.4%
⛽️Gas 2.0%
⚕️Health 1.1%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.7%
🛋️Furn 0.6%
🛒Groc 0.2%
🏠Build mat 0.2%
🏬Merch 0.1%
🚗Auto -0.3%
🎮Elec -0.5%
💻Online -0.7%
👗Cloth -0.7%
⚽️Sports -2.5%
⚠️Industrial production and manufacturing activity revised much lower.
▶️Cumulative effects of these revisions leave the level of manufacturing output in August 2025 about -1.5% below its level from Feb 2020, whereas manufacturing output was previously +1.5% over that period
▶️Cumulative effects of these revisions leave the level of manufacturing output in August 2025 about -1.5% below its level from Feb 2020, whereas manufacturing output was previously +1.5% over that period
November 24, 2025 at 6:36 PM
⚠️Industrial production and manufacturing activity revised much lower.
▶️Cumulative effects of these revisions leave the level of manufacturing output in August 2025 about -1.5% below its level from Feb 2020, whereas manufacturing output was previously +1.5% over that period
▶️Cumulative effects of these revisions leave the level of manufacturing output in August 2025 about -1.5% below its level from Feb 2020, whereas manufacturing output was previously +1.5% over that period
⚖️𝐌𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚-𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡
🔎 In the latest "The Inflation Brief," @laurarosner.bsky.social and I welcome Alan Detmeister to cut through the noise & unpack what missing data means for #inflation & the #Fed
Tune in to the @nabe-econ.bsky.social podcast
linktr.ee/nabe_econ
🔎 In the latest "The Inflation Brief," @laurarosner.bsky.social and I welcome Alan Detmeister to cut through the noise & unpack what missing data means for #inflation & the #Fed
Tune in to the @nabe-econ.bsky.social podcast
linktr.ee/nabe_econ
November 21, 2025 at 10:39 PM
⚖️𝐌𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚-𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡
🔎 In the latest "The Inflation Brief," @laurarosner.bsky.social and I welcome Alan Detmeister to cut through the noise & unpack what missing data means for #inflation & the #Fed
Tune in to the @nabe-econ.bsky.social podcast
linktr.ee/nabe_econ
🔎 In the latest "The Inflation Brief," @laurarosner.bsky.social and I welcome Alan Detmeister to cut through the noise & unpack what missing data means for #inflation & the #Fed
Tune in to the @nabe-econ.bsky.social podcast
linktr.ee/nabe_econ
🚨BLS announces that it won't release the full October CPI data due to the government shutdown
📊 It will release the November #CPI on December 18 & include partial CPI data for October using nonsurvey data sources (business data)
🌫️Needless to say the #inflation picture will be extremely murky
📊 It will release the November #CPI on December 18 & include partial CPI data for October using nonsurvey data sources (business data)
🌫️Needless to say the #inflation picture will be extremely murky
November 21, 2025 at 4:51 PM
🚨BLS announces that it won't release the full October CPI data due to the government shutdown
📊 It will release the November #CPI on December 18 & include partial CPI data for October using nonsurvey data sources (business data)
🌫️Needless to say the #inflation picture will be extremely murky
📊 It will release the November #CPI on December 18 & include partial CPI data for October using nonsurvey data sources (business data)
🌫️Needless to say the #inflation picture will be extremely murky
US Fragility in the system...
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 15 but Continuing claims reached a new 4-year high.
📉Claims: 220k (-8k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-3k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.97mn (+28k): High since Nov '21
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 15 but Continuing claims reached a new 4-year high.
📉Claims: 220k (-8k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-3k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.97mn (+28k): High since Nov '21
November 20, 2025 at 6:59 PM
US Fragility in the system...
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 15 but Continuing claims reached a new 4-year high.
📉Claims: 220k (-8k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-3k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.97mn (+28k): High since Nov '21
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 15 but Continuing claims reached a new 4-year high.
📉Claims: 220k (-8k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-3k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.97mn (+28k): High since Nov '21
US #Jobsreport September '25: Reassuring but stale upon release
✅Payrolls +119k
✅Private +97k
🟠Gds +10k
✅Services +87k
✅Gov 22k
🟠Diffusion 56%
🚨Revisions Jul/Aug -33k
🟠Hours +0%
🔺#Unemployment 4.4% (+0.1pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.2% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
✅Payrolls +119k
✅Private +97k
🟠Gds +10k
✅Services +87k
✅Gov 22k
🟠Diffusion 56%
🚨Revisions Jul/Aug -33k
🟠Hours +0%
🔺#Unemployment 4.4% (+0.1pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.2% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
November 20, 2025 at 1:47 PM
US #Jobsreport September '25: Reassuring but stale upon release
✅Payrolls +119k
✅Private +97k
🟠Gds +10k
✅Services +87k
✅Gov 22k
🟠Diffusion 56%
🚨Revisions Jul/Aug -33k
🟠Hours +0%
🔺#Unemployment 4.4% (+0.1pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.2% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
✅Payrolls +119k
✅Private +97k
🟠Gds +10k
✅Services +87k
✅Gov 22k
🟠Diffusion 56%
🚨Revisions Jul/Aug -33k
🟠Hours +0%
🔺#Unemployment 4.4% (+0.1pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.2% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
⚠️@BLS_gov just released new release dates:
▶️Employment report for October (only payrolls) & November will be released on December 16 -- after next #Fed/#FOMC meeting (Dec 9-10)
▶️No household survey data for October
▶️Employment report for October (only payrolls) & November will be released on December 16 -- after next #Fed/#FOMC meeting (Dec 9-10)
▶️No household survey data for October
November 19, 2025 at 6:36 PM
⚠️@BLS_gov just released new release dates:
▶️Employment report for October (only payrolls) & November will be released on December 16 -- after next #Fed/#FOMC meeting (Dec 9-10)
▶️No household survey data for October
▶️Employment report for October (only payrolls) & November will be released on December 16 -- after next #Fed/#FOMC meeting (Dec 9-10)
▶️No household survey data for October
📉Continued job losses in the private sector
🔻ADP National Employment Report weekly pulse for 4 weeks ending Nov 1, 2025
🔻-10k jobs (in monthly equivalent)
www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-i...
🔻ADP National Employment Report weekly pulse for 4 weeks ending Nov 1, 2025
🔻-10k jobs (in monthly equivalent)
www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-i...
November 18, 2025 at 3:04 PM
📉Continued job losses in the private sector
🔻ADP National Employment Report weekly pulse for 4 weeks ending Nov 1, 2025
🔻-10k jobs (in monthly equivalent)
www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-i...
🔻ADP National Employment Report weekly pulse for 4 weeks ending Nov 1, 2025
🔻-10k jobs (in monthly equivalent)
www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-i...
Japan’s economy contracted for first time in 6 quarters supporting Prime Minister Takaichi’s case to compile an ambitious economic stimulus package
⚠️GDP -1.8% in Q3
🔻Private residential investment & exports key drags
🟠Consumer spending nearly flat
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
⚠️GDP -1.8% in Q3
🔻Private residential investment & exports key drags
🟠Consumer spending nearly flat
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 17, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Japan’s economy contracted for first time in 6 quarters supporting Prime Minister Takaichi’s case to compile an ambitious economic stimulus package
⚠️GDP -1.8% in Q3
🔻Private residential investment & exports key drags
🟠Consumer spending nearly flat
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
⚠️GDP -1.8% in Q3
🔻Private residential investment & exports key drags
🟠Consumer spending nearly flat
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The White House will unveil fresh tariff exemptions designed to address high food prices on Friday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, as President Donald Trump’s administration confronts rising political pressure from voters. »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 14, 2025 at 3:37 PM
The White House will unveil fresh tariff exemptions designed to address high food prices on Friday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, as President Donald Trump’s administration confronts rising political pressure from voters. »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
« It could still take days for air travel to return to normal & probably longer for most of the 42 million low-income Americans enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to receive delayed benefits. Lengthy backlogs and delays are likely»
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 12, 2025 at 4:33 PM
« It could still take days for air travel to return to normal & probably longer for most of the 42 million low-income Americans enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to receive delayed benefits. Lengthy backlogs and delays are likely»
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
« Voter frustration over affordability fueled Democratic wins in last week’s state and local elections, and on top of that, Americans are becoming uneasy about the job market too. »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 12, 2025 at 4:25 PM
« Voter frustration over affordability fueled Democratic wins in last week’s state and local elections, and on top of that, Americans are becoming uneasy about the job market too. »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“While fundamental performance has been healthy, on average, companies have not been able to deleverage... A subset of companies may not be able to refinance their debt without a sale or the incurrence of additional equity » via Lincoln International
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 12, 2025 at 4:18 PM
“While fundamental performance has been healthy, on average, companies have not been able to deleverage... A subset of companies may not be able to refinance their debt without a sale or the incurrence of additional equity » via Lincoln International
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...