Greg Davis
@greg-davis.bsky.social
Watcher of politics in the US and Latin America. Fan of too many podcasts. Enjoyer of tacos and jokes. MA from American University
https://substack.com/@americaandamerica
https://x.com/americaand55509
https://substack.com/@americaandamerica
https://x.com/americaand55509
Good news: "provisional data from the Centers of Disease Control are from the 12-month period ending last August. Deaths dropped to an estimated 72,000 during that 12-month period, from an estimated 91,000 for the 12-month period ending August of 2024.” samquinones.substack.com/p/fentanyl-s...
Fentanyl supplies and overdose deaths keep dropping
The trends date to August, 2023, when declines in both began.
samquinones.substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 1:08 AM
Good news: "provisional data from the Centers of Disease Control are from the 12-month period ending last August. Deaths dropped to an estimated 72,000 during that 12-month period, from an estimated 91,000 for the 12-month period ending August of 2024.” samquinones.substack.com/p/fentanyl-s...
"And the United States still has roughly 15,000 troops and a dozen warships in the Caribbean—including the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford. The U.S. has also reopened shuttered military bases in Puerto Rico" foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/29/u...
What’s Next for the U.S. Military in Latin America?
“All the evidence points to a permanent U.S. military presence,” one expert said.
foreignpolicy.com
January 30, 2026 at 2:37 AM
"And the United States still has roughly 15,000 troops and a dozen warships in the Caribbean—including the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford. The U.S. has also reopened shuttered military bases in Puerto Rico" foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/29/u...
Gotta say that a "discombobulator" sounds a lot like a Looney Tunes weapon: "Trump said the professed new device was used during the elaborate operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro"
www.newsweek.com/the-discombo...
www.newsweek.com/the-discombo...
The 'Discombobulator': Does Trump's secret weapon really exist?
Some experts have expressed skepticism about both Trump's description of the weapon and whether it even exists.
www.newsweek.com
January 28, 2026 at 4:51 AM
Gotta say that a "discombobulator" sounds a lot like a Looney Tunes weapon: "Trump said the professed new device was used during the elaborate operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro"
www.newsweek.com/the-discombo...
www.newsweek.com/the-discombo...
"On Jan. 21 Space Force Force Southern was formally activated [...] Under this new purview, it will coordinate space-related matters dealing with Central and South America, as well as the Caribbean, where U.S. forces have been massed for months." taskandpurpose.com/news/space-f...
After Venezuela operation, Space Force activates SOUTHCOM element
The formal ceremony this month follows Guardians’ involvement in the attack on Caracas that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
taskandpurpose.com
January 27, 2026 at 3:11 AM
"On Jan. 21 Space Force Force Southern was formally activated [...] Under this new purview, it will coordinate space-related matters dealing with Central and South America, as well as the Caribbean, where U.S. forces have been massed for months." taskandpurpose.com/news/space-f...
"Still, the office has been roiled more than most by the ongoing Jeffrey Epstein mess; 125 out of its approximately 200 assistant US attorneys are currently assigned to review millions of pages of Epstein-related files. 'There are a ton of people on Epstein...'" www.vanityfair.com/news/story/s...
New York’s Southern District Has Taken a Beating Under Trump. Can It Handle Maduro’s Case?
“The SDNY has not exactly covered itself in glory lately,” says Elie Honig, who spent more than eight years as an assistant US Attorney in the office long considered the DOJ’s crown jewel. But prosecu...
www.vanityfair.com
January 22, 2026 at 1:51 AM
"Still, the office has been roiled more than most by the ongoing Jeffrey Epstein mess; 125 out of its approximately 200 assistant US attorneys are currently assigned to review millions of pages of Epstein-related files. 'There are a ton of people on Epstein...'" www.vanityfair.com/news/story/s...
💯:"Who can even tell what Chavismo is at this point, other than some two million individuals linked by state jobs and self-interest. It is possible to read news sites and search the Internet for hours without understanding what happened on January 3."
www.nybooks.com/articles/202...
www.nybooks.com/articles/202...
A More Pliant Chavista | Alma Guillermoprieto
President Trump’s decision to support Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s new leader makes clear that oil, not democracy, is his main concern.
www.nybooks.com
January 21, 2026 at 2:10 AM
💯:"Who can even tell what Chavismo is at this point, other than some two million individuals linked by state jobs and self-interest. It is possible to read news sites and search the Internet for hours without understanding what happened on January 3."
www.nybooks.com/articles/202...
www.nybooks.com/articles/202...
Yoani Sánchez: "After 67 years of the same regime and a mass exodus of those most opposed to it, Cuba does not have a well-articulated opposition group on the island that would be capable, in the short term, of vying for power." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/o...
Opinion | Hope and Fear Mingle in Cuba With the Loss of Maduro, and Oil
www.nytimes.com
January 19, 2026 at 8:18 PM
Yoani Sánchez: "After 67 years of the same regime and a mass exodus of those most opposed to it, Cuba does not have a well-articulated opposition group on the island that would be capable, in the short term, of vying for power." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/o...
"Instead of joint operations, Mexican officials offered counter proposals this month, including increased information sharing and for the United States to play a greater role inside command centers, according to a person familiar with the matter."
The U.S. Is Pressing Mexico to Allow U.S. Forces to Fight Cartels
www.nytimes.com
January 16, 2026 at 4:55 AM
"Instead of joint operations, Mexican officials offered counter proposals this month, including increased information sharing and for the United States to play a greater role inside command centers, according to a person familiar with the matter."
"Revenue from the oil sales is currently being held in bank accounts controlled by the US government, as indicated in Friday’s order, according to the administration official. The main account, according to a second senior administration official, is located in Qatar" www.semafor.com/article/01/1...
Exclusive: US gets first $500 million Venezuelan oil deal, holding some proceeds in Qatar
The details shared with Semafor mark an initial milestone in the administration’s plan following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro.
www.semafor.com
January 15, 2026 at 4:06 AM
"Revenue from the oil sales is currently being held in bank accounts controlled by the US government, as indicated in Friday’s order, according to the administration official. The main account, according to a second senior administration official, is located in Qatar" www.semafor.com/article/01/1...
"One pattern that occupation officials failed to discern early enough is that, while locals sometimes accepted and even welcomed the fact of occupation by a foreign power, those same locals would almost invariably resent the manner of occupation once it settled in." thedispatch.com/article/lati...
Latin America and the Pitfalls of American Intervention
The early 20th century is replete with examples of U.S. involvement gone awry.
thedispatch.com
January 15, 2026 at 3:18 AM
"One pattern that occupation officials failed to discern early enough is that, while locals sometimes accepted and even welcomed the fact of occupation by a foreign power, those same locals would almost invariably resent the manner of occupation once it settled in." thedispatch.com/article/lati...
Reposted by Greg Davis
Venezuelans inside the country are pretty pleased with the dramatic turn of events, according to exclusive polling for The Economist, even if their vision for its future differs from that of Donald Trump econ.st/4pC38B2
January 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM
Venezuelans inside the country are pretty pleased with the dramatic turn of events, according to exclusive polling for The Economist, even if their vision for its future differs from that of Donald Trump econ.st/4pC38B2
"Lula, Petro, and AMLO proved unwilling or unable to convince Maduro to accept his defeat and go into exile, partly because Biden made no effort to support them, such as by threatening to quarantine Venezuelan oil exports." www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/vene...
Yankee Go Home, Again
Jorge G. Castañeda fears that the capture of Venezuela’s president augurs a new era of US intervention in Latin America.
www.project-syndicate.org
January 14, 2026 at 2:25 AM
"Lula, Petro, and AMLO proved unwilling or unable to convince Maduro to accept his defeat and go into exile, partly because Biden made no effort to support them, such as by threatening to quarantine Venezuelan oil exports." www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/vene...
"It is uncertain, however, whether Trump’s intervention in Venezuela will become a testament to American power or expose its limits, and eventually contribute to its erosion." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The Shock Waves of Venezuela
How Maduro’s capture could throw Latin America into tumult.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 10, 2026 at 3:52 PM
"It is uncertain, however, whether Trump’s intervention in Venezuela will become a testament to American power or expose its limits, and eventually contribute to its erosion." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
"While some believed that the military buildup was only about Venezuela, everything in Trump’s rhetoric suggests that this is about military dominance of the hemisphere, not just removing Maduro in a one-off operation that is now concluded." www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trump-maduro...
Trump’s Attack on Venezuela Is Only the Beginning
The U.S. operation in Venezuela to seize Nicolas Maduro confirms that Latin America must take Trump’s military threats seriously.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
January 7, 2026 at 4:03 AM
"While some believed that the military buildup was only about Venezuela, everything in Trump’s rhetoric suggests that this is about military dominance of the hemisphere, not just removing Maduro in a one-off operation that is now concluded." www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trump-maduro...
Highly recommended read: "What the world needs now is not another list of Washington’s goals for Venezuela, but clarity about which of the stated goals the United States is more willing to give up." time.com/7343053/trum... @javiercorrales.bsky.social
Trump’s Goals in Venezuela Don’t Add Up
Javier Corrales breaks down the four objectives of Trump's strike on Venezuela and explains why they conflict.
time.com
January 6, 2026 at 2:07 AM
Highly recommended read: "What the world needs now is not another list of Washington’s goals for Venezuela, but clarity about which of the stated goals the United States is more willing to give up." time.com/7343053/trum... @javiercorrales.bsky.social
Interesting detail: Delcy once said she "join[ed] the government an act of 'personal revenge' for her father’s death in prison in 1976, after being interrogated by intelligence agents from pro-U.S. governments."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
How Trump Fixed On a Maduro Loyalist as Venezuela’s New Leader
www.nytimes.com
January 4, 2026 at 8:15 PM
Interesting detail: Delcy once said she "join[ed] the government an act of 'personal revenge' for her father’s death in prison in 1976, after being interrogated by intelligence agents from pro-U.S. governments."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
"Mr. Maduro’s regular public dancing and other displays of nonchalance in recent weeks helped persuade some on the Trump team that the Venezuelan president was mocking them and trying to call what he believed to be a bluff, according to two of the people, who..."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
How Trump Fixed On a Maduro Loyalist as Venezuela’s New Leader
www.nytimes.com
January 4, 2026 at 8:10 PM
"Mr. Maduro’s regular public dancing and other displays of nonchalance in recent weeks helped persuade some on the Trump team that the Venezuelan president was mocking them and trying to call what he believed to be a bluff, according to two of the people, who..."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
"Los llamados a la calle por parte de los principales funcionarios venezolanos no han sido atendidos masivamente por los venezolanos. En Caracas, algunas decenas de ciudadanos se concentran a las afueras de Miraflores;" efectococuyo.com/la-humanidad...
Colas en supermercados, zozobra e incertidumbre: así está Venezuela ante ataque de EEUU - Efecto Cocuyo
Los bombardeos que despertaron a Venezuela en la madrugada de este 3 de enero en Caracas, despertaron al país en medio de la desinformación
efectococuyo.com
January 3, 2026 at 8:06 PM
"Los llamados a la calle por parte de los principales funcionarios venezolanos no han sido atendidos masivamente por los venezolanos. En Caracas, algunas decenas de ciudadanos se concentran a las afueras de Miraflores;" efectococuyo.com/la-humanidad...
Wow: "Asked about the potential presence of U.S. forces in Venezuela, Trump said that there would be a 'presence in Venezuela as it pertains to oil.'” www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01...
Venezuela Live Updates: Trump Says U.S. Will ‘Run the Country’ After Capture of Maduro
www.nytimes.com
January 3, 2026 at 5:44 PM
Wow: "Asked about the potential presence of U.S. forces in Venezuela, Trump said that there would be a 'presence in Venezuela as it pertains to oil.'” www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01...
Reposted by Greg Davis
My quick write-up of events: boz.substack.com/p/eight-init...
Eight initial comments on Maduro's detention
Joy, chaos, uncertainty.
boz.substack.com
January 3, 2026 at 1:41 PM
My quick write-up of events: boz.substack.com/p/eight-init...
Reposted by Greg Davis
A ten-part thread on misreading Trump:
A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.
A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.
January 3, 2026 at 10:55 AM
A ten-part thread on misreading Trump:
A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.
A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.
"Since April 2024, when the strikes began, the military says there have been some 400 drone attacks, killing 58 soldiers and police officers and wounding nearly 300, according to Colombian President Gustavo Petro." www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Colombia’s Cocaine Smugglers Employ a Deadly New Weapon—Drones
Drone attacks by resurgent militias are battering the country’s strained security services as they grow in frequency and ferocity.
www.wsj.com
January 2, 2026 at 3:18 AM
"Since April 2024, when the strikes began, the military says there have been some 400 drone attacks, killing 58 soldiers and police officers and wounding nearly 300, according to Colombian President Gustavo Petro." www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Wisdom from Eduardo Galeano:
January 1, 2026 at 11:19 PM
Wisdom from Eduardo Galeano:
Did the U.S. Attack Venezuela?: "This has been a strange non-invasion and it's not getting less strange."
weeksnotice.blogspot.com/2025/12/did-...
weeksnotice.blogspot.com/2025/12/did-...
Did the U.S. Attack Venezuela?
Here's a scenario I hadn't thought about. Donald Trump announced that he launched an attack on Venezuela, which "knocked out" a "big plant ...
weeksnotice.blogspot.com
December 29, 2025 at 11:07 PM
Did the U.S. Attack Venezuela?: "This has been a strange non-invasion and it's not getting less strange."
weeksnotice.blogspot.com/2025/12/did-...
weeksnotice.blogspot.com/2025/12/did-...