Gianluca Benigno
@gianlucabenigno.bsky.social
Professor of Economics at the University of Lausanne. Former Head of the International Studies Department at the NYFed and a tenured Professor at the LSE.
https://gianlucabenigno.substack.com/
https://sites.google.com/view/gianlucabenigno/home;
https://gianlucabenigno.substack.com/
https://sites.google.com/view/gianlucabenigno/home;
This is an important post on debt sustainability.
We often treat debt as a purely fiscal issue, searching for magic numbers (38T, 45T) or debt-to-GDP ratios (90%, 120%) beyond which everything unravels. But that misses the bigger picture. #debt #US #fiscalpolicy
open.substack.com/pub/pierpa61...
We often treat debt as a purely fiscal issue, searching for magic numbers (38T, 45T) or debt-to-GDP ratios (90%, 120%) beyond which everything unravels. But that misses the bigger picture. #debt #US #fiscalpolicy
open.substack.com/pub/pierpa61...
Is U.S. Government Debt Unsustainable?
The $38 trillion U.S.
open.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:33 AM
This is an important post on debt sustainability.
We often treat debt as a purely fiscal issue, searching for magic numbers (38T, 45T) or debt-to-GDP ratios (90%, 120%) beyond which everything unravels. But that misses the bigger picture. #debt #US #fiscalpolicy
open.substack.com/pub/pierpa61...
We often treat debt as a purely fiscal issue, searching for magic numbers (38T, 45T) or debt-to-GDP ratios (90%, 120%) beyond which everything unravels. But that misses the bigger picture. #debt #US #fiscalpolicy
open.substack.com/pub/pierpa61...
In my column for Herald Insight Collection, I explore how swap lines could evolve into geopolitical instruments of strategy and power.
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
#geopolitics #swap_lines #united_states #china | Herald Insight Collection(#HIC)
Professor Gianluca Benigno at the University of Lausanne took an in-depth look at global currency swaps, which have emerged as a key issue in #geopolitics. He offers the insight that the geopolitics o...
www.linkedin.com
October 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
In my column for Herald Insight Collection, I explore how swap lines could evolve into geopolitical instruments of strategy and power.
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
Quick Fed Update: 2025 rate cuts: The median projection still sees 2 rate cuts by end-2025.
Rising support for “no cuts”: In March 2025, 4 FOMC participants saw no cuts in 2025. In June, that number has increased to 7, showing increased caution within the committee on easing policy further.
Rising support for “no cuts”: In March 2025, 4 FOMC participants saw no cuts in 2025. In June, that number has increased to 7, showing increased caution within the committee on easing policy further.
June 18, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Quick Fed Update: 2025 rate cuts: The median projection still sees 2 rate cuts by end-2025.
Rising support for “no cuts”: In March 2025, 4 FOMC participants saw no cuts in 2025. In June, that number has increased to 7, showing increased caution within the committee on easing policy further.
Rising support for “no cuts”: In March 2025, 4 FOMC participants saw no cuts in 2025. In June, that number has increased to 7, showing increased caution within the committee on easing policy further.
UK data: CPI rose to 3.5% YoY (vs. 3.3% expected), led by services inflation at 5.4% YoY, up from 4.7%. With wage growth sticky at 5.4% YoY, the current release might lead to a further cautious approach by the #BoE.
#UKinflation #CPI #wages #BoE #interestrates #monetarypolicy
#UKinflation #CPI #wages #BoE #interestrates #monetarypolicy
May 21, 2025 at 7:22 AM
UK data: CPI rose to 3.5% YoY (vs. 3.3% expected), led by services inflation at 5.4% YoY, up from 4.7%. With wage growth sticky at 5.4% YoY, the current release might lead to a further cautious approach by the #BoE.
#UKinflation #CPI #wages #BoE #interestrates #monetarypolicy
#UKinflation #CPI #wages #BoE #interestrates #monetarypolicy
I presented "The Flip Side of UK Monetary Policy" last week at the BoE's Watchers Conference. The main message is that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is not mechanical, but depends on state-contingent and institutional country-specific factors. #BankofEngland 1/3
May 20, 2025 at 4:56 AM
I presented "The Flip Side of UK Monetary Policy" last week at the BoE's Watchers Conference. The main message is that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is not mechanical, but depends on state-contingent and institutional country-specific factors. #BankofEngland 1/3
No signs of tariffs-induced price increases yet for the U.S. economy.
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
US April-25 CPI Inflation Report
Disinflation continues, as tariff-driven inflation fears have yet to materialize. The current release suggests no change in the "wait and see" monetary policy approach.
open.substack.com
May 13, 2025 at 1:30 PM
No signs of tariffs-induced price increases yet for the U.S. economy.
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
Reposted by Gianluca Benigno
Finally, in my own paper with @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social, we show that the Financial Resource Curse is not merely a theoretical possibility by presenting careful empirical evidence that it is a general phenomenon www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 4/n
Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance
This paper describes the stylized facts characterizing periods of exceptionally large capital inflows in a sample of 70 middle- and high-income countr…
www.sciencedirect.com
April 19, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Finally, in my own paper with @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social, we show that the Financial Resource Curse is not merely a theoretical possibility by presenting careful empirical evidence that it is a general phenomenon www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 4/n
Reposted by Gianluca Benigno
In an AER paper w Martin Wolf (of U.St.Gallen) @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social show that the Financial Resource Curse has even larger negative implications when flows go to the world technological leader, I.e. the US (ungated here: www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...) 3/n
The Global Financial Resource Curse - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
www.newyorkfed.org
April 19, 2025 at 10:49 AM
In an AER paper w Martin Wolf (of U.St.Gallen) @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social show that the Financial Resource Curse has even larger negative implications when flows go to the world technological leader, I.e. the US (ungated here: www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...) 3/n
Reposted by Gianluca Benigno
I like that Brunnermeier and Merkel at least nod (without citation for some reason) at @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social ‘s work on the Financial Resource Curse (e.g crei.cat/wp-content/u...) 3/n
crei.cat
April 19, 2025 at 10:43 AM
I like that Brunnermeier and Merkel at least nod (without citation for some reason) at @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social ‘s work on the Financial Resource Curse (e.g crei.cat/wp-content/u...) 3/n
Reposted by Gianluca Benigno
When tariffs become a financial shock inducing feedback loop in asset prices @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social #econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
April 9, 2025 at 9:43 AM
When tariffs become a financial shock inducing feedback loop in asset prices @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social #econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
My teaching notes on the new U.S. Trade regime. What are tariffs? Who pays for it? Do they increase prices? what policy actions have been adopted, their implementation and possible legal challenges.
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
A Quick Guide to the New U.S. Trade Regime
This is a major structural shift to the global economy, here I review the basics.
open.substack.com
April 7, 2025 at 1:14 PM
My teaching notes on the new U.S. Trade regime. What are tariffs? Who pays for it? Do they increase prices? what policy actions have been adopted, their implementation and possible legal challenges.
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
January CPI inflation release surprised on the upside. Core inflation seems to be stuck above 3% showing little progress. As trade tensions increase, goods prices will likely add to inflationary pressures rather than contribute to disinflation as in 2024.
gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/us-january...
gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/us-january...
US January-25 CPI Inflation report
An unexpected rise in inflation will likely dampen expectations for rate cuts, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance and increasing the likelihood of a prolonged higher-for-longer rate environment.
gianlucabenigno.substack.com
February 13, 2025 at 9:06 AM
January CPI inflation release surprised on the upside. Core inflation seems to be stuck above 3% showing little progress. As trade tensions increase, goods prices will likely add to inflationary pressures rather than contribute to disinflation as in 2024.
gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/us-january...
gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/us-january...
Interest Rates Politics: can Trump Pressure the Fed?
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
Interest Rates Politics: can Trump Pressure the Fed?
It is still inflation that matters
open.substack.com
January 29, 2025 at 8:15 AM
Interest Rates Politics: can Trump Pressure the Fed?
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...
Nice article by @martinsandbu.bsky.social on Draghi's proposal. "Demand creates its own supply" this is what happens in the Keynesian growth framework (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/04/the-...)
The Keynesian Growth Approach to Macroeconomic Policy and Productivity - Liberty Street Economics
Productivity is one of the key determinants of potential output—that is, the trend level of production consistent with stable inflation. A productivity growth slowdown has occurred in several advanced...
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
December 20, 2024 at 7:35 PM
Nice article by @martinsandbu.bsky.social on Draghi's proposal. "Demand creates its own supply" this is what happens in the Keynesian growth framework (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/04/the-...)
How can Central Banks manage the post-pandemic world with increased macro variability, geopolitical tensions, and shifting interest rate dynamics? Building on the BoE, I explore how scenario analysis could emerge as a new communication device for CBs. gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/scenario-a...
Scenario Analysis as Communication Device for Central Banking
Reshaping Communication: The Bernanke Review will affect Central Banks’ communication beyond the Bank of England.
gianlucabenigno.substack.com
December 10, 2024 at 9:18 AM
How can Central Banks manage the post-pandemic world with increased macro variability, geopolitical tensions, and shifting interest rate dynamics? Building on the BoE, I explore how scenario analysis could emerge as a new communication device for CBs. gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/scenario-a...
Reposted by Gianluca Benigno
Today’s CPI inflation report suggests that progress towards the 2% target is slow. My interpretation is that inflation has reached a plateau, gravitating around 2.5% at the headline level and around 3% at the core CPI level. (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/october-24...)
October-24 U.S. CPI Inflation Report
Still persistently high Core Inflation
gianlucabenigno.substack.com
November 14, 2024 at 12:35 PM
Today’s CPI inflation report suggests that progress towards the 2% target is slow. My interpretation is that inflation has reached a plateau, gravitating around 2.5% at the headline level and around 3% at the core CPI level. (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/october-24...)
The Global Financial Resource Curse is now a forthcoming paper in the American Economic Review. lnkd.in/gXEVV4ym
The Global Financial Resource curse is a depressed growth outcome under financial integration, resulting in low growth, low productivity, and super-low real interest rates
The Global Financial Resource curse is a depressed growth outcome under financial integration, resulting in low growth, low productivity, and super-low real interest rates
October 23, 2024 at 12:27 PM
The Global Financial Resource Curse is now a forthcoming paper in the American Economic Review. lnkd.in/gXEVV4ym
The Global Financial Resource curse is a depressed growth outcome under financial integration, resulting in low growth, low productivity, and super-low real interest rates
The Global Financial Resource curse is a depressed growth outcome under financial integration, resulting in low growth, low productivity, and super-low real interest rates
Is inflation no longer a problem? While inflation in many advanced economies has moved closer to central bank targets, significant differences remain between various measures of inflation.
For example, services inflation is in general higher than pre-pandemic with more variations across countries.
For example, services inflation is in general higher than pre-pandemic with more variations across countries.
October 21, 2024 at 5:38 AM
Is inflation no longer a problem? While inflation in many advanced economies has moved closer to central bank targets, significant differences remain between various measures of inflation.
For example, services inflation is in general higher than pre-pandemic with more variations across countries.
For example, services inflation is in general higher than pre-pandemic with more variations across countries.
Does the recent interest rate cut by the Fed influence the U.S. election?
In my blog, I argue that American consumers' dissatisfaction with the economic outlook is more closely tied to high prices than the control of inflation. I explore how behavioral factors might explain this connection.
In my blog, I argue that American consumers' dissatisfaction with the economic outlook is more closely tied to high prices than the control of inflation. I explore how behavioral factors might explain this connection.
September 30, 2024 at 6:21 AM
Does the recent interest rate cut by the Fed influence the U.S. election?
In my blog, I argue that American consumers' dissatisfaction with the economic outlook is more closely tied to high prices than the control of inflation. I explore how behavioral factors might explain this connection.
In my blog, I argue that American consumers' dissatisfaction with the economic outlook is more closely tied to high prices than the control of inflation. I explore how behavioral factors might explain this connection.
The upcoming FOMC meeting is marked by significant uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the Federal Funds Rate cut. I suggest that a 50bps reduction could result from a split vote within the FOMC. (open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...)
September 15, 2024 at 9:00 PM
The upcoming FOMC meeting is marked by significant uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the Federal Funds Rate cut. I suggest that a 50bps reduction could result from a split vote within the FOMC. (open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...)
Following yesterday's CPI report, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut has decreased significantly. In the U.S. CPI report, we highlight the persistence of core inflation and core services as key factors contributing to this market adjustment.
(open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...).
(open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...).
September 12, 2024 at 8:01 AM
Following yesterday's CPI report, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut has decreased significantly. In the U.S. CPI report, we highlight the persistence of core inflation and core services as key factors contributing to this market adjustment.
(open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...).
(open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...).
It's Inflation Report Day today, starting with the UK CPI report. Our supercore inflation measure has shown a marked decline, both on a m/m basis (0.3% in July, down from 0.5% in June) and on a y/y (4.8% in July, down from 5.4% in June). (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/uk-july-24...)
UK July 24-CPI Inflation Report
Marked decline in supercore inflation would justify continuation of easing cycle in September
gianlucabenigno.substack.com
August 14, 2024 at 8:09 AM
It's Inflation Report Day today, starting with the UK CPI report. Our supercore inflation measure has shown a marked decline, both on a m/m basis (0.3% in July, down from 0.5% in June) and on a y/y (4.8% in July, down from 5.4% in June). (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/uk-july-24...)
The blog post, "The Bank of Japan's Put," (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/the-bank…) explores the role of the Bank of Japan and the yen's reversal in understanding recent developments.
https://gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/the-bank…
August 10, 2024 at 8:17 AM
The blog post, "The Bank of Japan's Put," (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/the-bank…) explores the role of the Bank of Japan and the yen's reversal in understanding recent developments.