Galen Fontaise
@gfontaise.bsky.social
Building math models to predict revolutions
Computational Macrohistory
🔗 https://www.ficss.institute/
🔗 https://galenfontaise.substack.com/
Orcid: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-6643-2307
Computational Macrohistory
🔗 https://www.ficss.institute/
🔗 https://galenfontaise.substack.com/
Orcid: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-6643-2307
Pinned
🧵 Hi Bluesky!
I'm Prof. Fontaise, founder of FICSS (Lugano) & creator of Computational Macrohistory (CMH) — a quantitative science of large-scale historical systems.
A short intro:
1/5
I'm Prof. Fontaise, founder of FICSS (Lugano) & creator of Computational Macrohistory (CMH) — a quantitative science of large-scale historical systems.
A short intro:
1/5
Reposted by Galen Fontaise
Podem predir el futur mitjançant les matemàtiques? Què ens diu la teoria del caos? Quins són els límits de la nostra capacitat de predir la complexitat? Parlarem amb Doyne Farmer, un dels pares de la teoria, i amb la matemàtica Eva Miranda @evamirandag.bsky.social
museuciencies.cat/activitats/2...
museuciencies.cat/activitats/2...
February 14, 2026 at 3:03 PM
Podem predir el futur mitjançant les matemàtiques? Què ens diu la teoria del caos? Quins són els límits de la nostra capacitat de predir la complexitat? Parlarem amb Doyne Farmer, un dels pares de la teoria, i amb la matemàtica Eva Miranda @evamirandag.bsky.social
museuciencies.cat/activitats/2...
museuciencies.cat/activitats/2...
🧵 Predict a bank will fail.
Depositors panic. They withdraw money. The bank collapses.
Did you predict the failure—or cause it?
This is the paradox of social prediction.
New article: Axiom A6 — Limited Reflexivity
1/5
Depositors panic. They withdraw money. The bank collapses.
Did you predict the failure—or cause it?
This is the paradox of social prediction.
New article: Axiom A6 — Limited Reflexivity
1/5
February 14, 2026 at 10:12 AM
🧵 Predict a bank will fail.
Depositors panic. They withdraw money. The bank collapses.
Did you predict the failure—or cause it?
This is the paradox of social prediction.
New article: Axiom A6 — Limited Reflexivity
1/5
Depositors panic. They withdraw money. The bank collapses.
Did you predict the failure—or cause it?
This is the paradox of social prediction.
New article: Axiom A6 — Limited Reflexivity
1/5
The difference between triggers and causes is everything.
Mohamed Bouazizi was the trigger of the Tunisian revolution. His self-immolation on December 17, 2010 sparked the uprising.
But the trigger doesn't explain why Tunisia exploded while Saudi Arabia didn't.
Mohamed Bouazizi was the trigger of the Tunisian revolution. His self-immolation on December 17, 2010 sparked the uprising.
But the trigger doesn't explain why Tunisia exploded while Saudi Arabia didn't.
February 13, 2026 at 3:30 PM
The difference between triggers and causes is everything.
Mohamed Bouazizi was the trigger of the Tunisian revolution. His self-immolation on December 17, 2010 sparked the uprising.
But the trigger doesn't explain why Tunisia exploded while Saudi Arabia didn't.
Mohamed Bouazizi was the trigger of the Tunisian revolution. His self-immolation on December 17, 2010 sparked the uprising.
But the trigger doesn't explain why Tunisia exploded while Saudi Arabia didn't.
I'm excited to launch CMH Bulletin—a new project applying quantitative methods to understand large-scale historical dynamics.
What we study:
- Revolutions and political instability
- Economic cycles - crises
- Demographic pressures - social change
- Patterns in the rise - fall of civilizations
What we study:
- Revolutions and political instability
- Economic cycles - crises
- Demographic pressures - social change
- Patterns in the rise - fall of civilizations
February 13, 2026 at 8:22 AM
I'm excited to launch CMH Bulletin—a new project applying quantitative methods to understand large-scale historical dynamics.
What we study:
- Revolutions and political instability
- Economic cycles - crises
- Demographic pressures - social change
- Patterns in the rise - fall of civilizations
What we study:
- Revolutions and political instability
- Economic cycles - crises
- Demographic pressures - social change
- Patterns in the rise - fall of civilizations
🧵 Hi Bluesky!
I'm Prof. Fontaise, founder of FICSS (Lugano) & creator of Computational Macrohistory (CMH) — a quantitative science of large-scale historical systems.
A short intro:
1/5
I'm Prof. Fontaise, founder of FICSS (Lugano) & creator of Computational Macrohistory (CMH) — a quantitative science of large-scale historical systems.
A short intro:
1/5
February 13, 2026 at 8:05 AM
🧵 Hi Bluesky!
I'm Prof. Fontaise, founder of FICSS (Lugano) & creator of Computational Macrohistory (CMH) — a quantitative science of large-scale historical systems.
A short intro:
1/5
I'm Prof. Fontaise, founder of FICSS (Lugano) & creator of Computational Macrohistory (CMH) — a quantitative science of large-scale historical systems.
A short intro:
1/5