George Barros
@georgewbarros.bsky.social
Russia Team & GEOINT Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War. I study war, 🇺🇦, 🇷🇺, & 🇧🇾. Maker of maps and fan of GIS. Led grassroots effort to provide Ukraine Javelins in 2014. W&M alum.
https://understandingwar.org/press-media/staff-bios/g
https://understandingwar.org/press-media/staff-bios/g
Reposted by George Barros
Our exclusive report on Russia’s tank production is out. Using internal files and state contracts, we show production plans for the next decade and current output. A short thread will follow soon, but for now, you can read the report
frontelligence.substack.com/p/exclusive-inside-russias-20262036
frontelligence.substack.com/p/exclusive-inside-russias-20262036
Exclusive: Inside Russia’s 2026–2036 Tank Fleet Modernization and Buildup Plans
In the spring and summer of 2025, as part of our own operation, our team obtained exclusive documents that provide new insight into Russia’s tank-production plans and confirm the existence of a little...
frontelligence.substack.com
October 12, 2025 at 1:21 AM
Our exclusive report on Russia’s tank production is out. Using internal files and state contracts, we show production plans for the next decade and current output. A short thread will follow soon, but for now, you can read the report
frontelligence.substack.com/p/exclusive-inside-russias-20262036
frontelligence.substack.com/p/exclusive-inside-russias-20262036
Russia launches 500+ Shahed drones at Ukraine every few days. If Ukraine had tomahawk missiles, Ukraine could destroy the factory in Tatarstan that has the capacity to produce 2,700 of them monthly.
October 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Russia launches 500+ Shahed drones at Ukraine every few days. If Ukraine had tomahawk missiles, Ukraine could destroy the factory in Tatarstan that has the capacity to produce 2,700 of them monthly.
Current Trump Administration policy is not working. Putin is emboldened. He will not stop unless we stop him.
July 4, 2025 at 3:58 AM
Current Trump Administration policy is not working. Putin is emboldened. He will not stop unless we stop him.
Reposted by George Barros
"Reducing US military aid to Ukraine will neither lead to a sustainable peace in Ukraine nor compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to reassess his theory of victory" understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
Institute for the Study of War
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated on June 10 that the United States intends to reduce its budget for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine in 2026.
understandingwar.org
June 12, 2025 at 4:26 AM
"Reducing US military aid to Ukraine will neither lead to a sustainable peace in Ukraine nor compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to reassess his theory of victory" understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
Maxar collected images of before / after damage to Russian aircraft as a result of Operation Spiderweb.
This is not a comprehensive view of the damage. Cloud cover obscured several of the other Russian airbases that were reportedly also struck by drones.
📷 @Maxar
This is not a comprehensive view of the damage. Cloud cover obscured several of the other Russian airbases that were reportedly also struck by drones.
📷 @Maxar
June 4, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Maxar collected images of before / after damage to Russian aircraft as a result of Operation Spiderweb.
This is not a comprehensive view of the damage. Cloud cover obscured several of the other Russian airbases that were reportedly also struck by drones.
📷 @Maxar
This is not a comprehensive view of the damage. Cloud cover obscured several of the other Russian airbases that were reportedly also struck by drones.
📷 @Maxar
Ukraine demonstrated that it can cause strategic effects using FPV drones.
Small UAS are not confined to the tactical level of warfare.
Tremendous operation.
Small UAS are not confined to the tactical level of warfare.
Tremendous operation.
June 1, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Ukraine demonstrated that it can cause strategic effects using FPV drones.
Small UAS are not confined to the tactical level of warfare.
Tremendous operation.
Small UAS are not confined to the tactical level of warfare.
Tremendous operation.
There are things the US can do to *make* Vladimir stop.
Putin has vulnerabilities we are either overlooking or choosing not to leverage.
Putin is banking on the US letting Russia off the hook despite Russia's own precarious position
Putin has vulnerabilities we are either overlooking or choosing not to leverage.
Putin is banking on the US letting Russia off the hook despite Russia's own precarious position
April 24, 2025 at 1:24 PM
There are things the US can do to *make* Vladimir stop.
Putin has vulnerabilities we are either overlooking or choosing not to leverage.
Putin is banking on the US letting Russia off the hook despite Russia's own precarious position
Putin has vulnerabilities we are either overlooking or choosing not to leverage.
Putin is banking on the US letting Russia off the hook despite Russia's own precarious position
Reposted by George Barros
The Kremlin falsely framed Ukraine's extension of martial law & continue mobilization through August as an effort to inhibit the peace process.
The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵
The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵
NEW: The Kremlin is using surge pricing for enlistment bonuses to recruit additional volunteers and attempt to sustain Russia's protracted war effort in Ukraine.
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update April 15, 2025: isw.pub/RussianForce...
More key takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/11)
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update April 15, 2025: isw.pub/RussianForce...
More key takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/11)
April 17, 2025 at 2:25 PM
The Kremlin falsely framed Ukraine's extension of martial law & continue mobilization through August as an effort to inhibit the peace process.
The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵
The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵
Reposted by George Barros
1/ Today's occupation update focuses heavily on Russia's efforts to deport Ukrainian children and teens to Russia and expose them to Russification programs. I discuss how programs such as "University Shifts" and "Cultural Map 4+85" are just a small part of a much larger ecosystem ⬇️
NEW: Russian officials continue to advertise programs that deport and Russify Ukrainian children and teenagers.
Read more in the April 17 Russian Occupation Update from @karolinahird.bsky.social: isw.pub/OccupationUp...
Read more in the April 17 Russian Occupation Update from @karolinahird.bsky.social: isw.pub/OccupationUp...
April 17, 2025 at 3:02 PM
1/ Today's occupation update focuses heavily on Russia's efforts to deport Ukrainian children and teens to Russia and expose them to Russification programs. I discuss how programs such as "University Shifts" and "Cultural Map 4+85" are just a small part of a much larger ecosystem ⬇️
Reposted by George Barros
Thrilled to share that @cnn.com cited my analysis on the news surrounding a popular Russian commander - Major General Ivan Popov - who attempted to weaponize his popularity & Russian information space to resist his removal from command in July 2023.
www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e...
A quick 🧵on Popov:
www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e...
A quick 🧵on Popov:
April 16, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Thrilled to share that @cnn.com cited my analysis on the news surrounding a popular Russian commander - Major General Ivan Popov - who attempted to weaponize his popularity & Russian information space to resist his removal from command in July 2023.
www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e...
A quick 🧵on Popov:
www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e...
A quick 🧵on Popov:
Interesting footage of Russian forces' tactical training to defeat FPV drone threats using shotguns.
Russian sport skeet shooters are helping instruct Russian soldiers learn how to hit fast-moving targets with shotguns.
Russian sport skeet shooters are helping instruct Russian soldiers learn how to hit fast-moving targets with shotguns.
April 4, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Interesting footage of Russian forces' tactical training to defeat FPV drone threats using shotguns.
Russian sport skeet shooters are helping instruct Russian soldiers learn how to hit fast-moving targets with shotguns.
Russian sport skeet shooters are helping instruct Russian soldiers learn how to hit fast-moving targets with shotguns.
Reposted by George Barros
Putin is likely afraid of having over 700,000 Russian veterans return to Russia in the event of demobilization out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return.
Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵
Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵
NEW: Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans, by ISW Deputy Russia Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social
Read the special report: isw.pub/AfghanSyndrome
Read the special report: isw.pub/AfghanSyndrome
March 24, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Putin is likely afraid of having over 700,000 Russian veterans return to Russia in the event of demobilization out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return.
Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵
Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵
Satellite imagery collected on March 21 shows damage from Ukrainian strikes on storage facilities at Russia’s Engels airbase.
An ammunition & weapons storage area on the airbase's NE edge was damaged. Destroyed buildings & storage bunkers with craters are visible.
Image Maxar Technologies
An ammunition & weapons storage area on the airbase's NE edge was damaged. Destroyed buildings & storage bunkers with craters are visible.
Image Maxar Technologies
March 21, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Satellite imagery collected on March 21 shows damage from Ukrainian strikes on storage facilities at Russia’s Engels airbase.
An ammunition & weapons storage area on the airbase's NE edge was damaged. Destroyed buildings & storage bunkers with craters are visible.
Image Maxar Technologies
An ammunition & weapons storage area on the airbase's NE edge was damaged. Destroyed buildings & storage bunkers with craters are visible.
Image Maxar Technologies
Waiting for Moscow to offer one (1) concession.
Keith Kellogg was suspended from the peace talks at Russia's request due to his pro-Ukrainian stance. — NBC News
James Hewitt, spokesman for the National Security Council, said Kellogg remains "a valuable part of the team, particularly as we negotiate with European allies."
James Hewitt, spokesman for the National Security Council, said Kellogg remains "a valuable part of the team, particularly as we negotiate with European allies."
March 15, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Waiting for Moscow to offer one (1) concession.
Available evidence from the battlefield does not indicate any Russian encirclements of Ukrainian forces at scale, and certainly not by the thousands.
March 14, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Available evidence from the battlefield does not indicate any Russian encirclements of Ukrainian forces at scale, and certainly not by the thousands.
You're falling for Kremlin language and mind games if you think Putin's statement means he accepted the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire deal.
Putin actually rejected the terms of President Trump's proposal and is now trying to change the proposal's substance.
Putin actually rejected the terms of President Trump's proposal and is now trying to change the proposal's substance.
March 13, 2025 at 4:58 PM
You're falling for Kremlin language and mind games if you think Putin's statement means he accepted the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire deal.
Putin actually rejected the terms of President Trump's proposal and is now trying to change the proposal's substance.
Putin actually rejected the terms of President Trump's proposal and is now trying to change the proposal's substance.
The Kremlin is not responding enthusiastically to the US-Ukraine proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.
Russia is studying the statements following the talks between the Ukrainian and US delegations in Saudi Arabia. However, Russia does not want to "get ahead of ourselves" regarding the ceasefire agreed to by Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian journalists.
March 12, 2025 at 10:53 AM
The Kremlin is not responding enthusiastically to the US-Ukraine proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.
The temporal correlation between the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the start of Russia's collapse of the Ukrainian Kursk salient is noteworthy.
March 10, 2025 at 1:34 AM
The temporal correlation between the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the start of Russia's collapse of the Ukrainian Kursk salient is noteworthy.
Russia, not Ukraine, is the obstacle to peace.
This is evident in the data. Russia has intensified its drone/missile strike campaign against Ukraine after President Trump was inaugurated.
Ukraine has offered many concessions to start peace processes.
Russia has offered zero.
This is evident in the data. Russia has intensified its drone/missile strike campaign against Ukraine after President Trump was inaugurated.
Ukraine has offered many concessions to start peace processes.
Russia has offered zero.
NEW: Russian forces conducted one of the largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine as Russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to overwhelm Ukraine's air defenss by increasing the total number of Shahed and decoy drones in each strike.(🧵1/11)
More: isw.pub/UkrWar030725
More: isw.pub/UkrWar030725
March 8, 2025 at 4:22 AM
Russia, not Ukraine, is the obstacle to peace.
This is evident in the data. Russia has intensified its drone/missile strike campaign against Ukraine after President Trump was inaugurated.
Ukraine has offered many concessions to start peace processes.
Russia has offered zero.
This is evident in the data. Russia has intensified its drone/missile strike campaign against Ukraine after President Trump was inaugurated.
Ukraine has offered many concessions to start peace processes.
Russia has offered zero.
Russia is the obstacle to peace in Ukraine. Not Ukraine.
The proper strategy should be to erode Russia's leverage and grant Ukraine leverage until peace talks.
Not the other way around.
The proper strategy should be to erode Russia's leverage and grant Ukraine leverage until peace talks.
Not the other way around.
March 5, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Russia is the obstacle to peace in Ukraine. Not Ukraine.
The proper strategy should be to erode Russia's leverage and grant Ukraine leverage until peace talks.
Not the other way around.
The proper strategy should be to erode Russia's leverage and grant Ukraine leverage until peace talks.
Not the other way around.
Terrible decision. Cutting intel sharing will grant Russian forces enhanced protection at the operational level. Russian battlefield gains have been dropping since late 2024, but this stands to help Russia rebuild lost momentum.
FT Exclusive: The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces. www.ft.com/content/c58f...
March 5, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Terrible decision. Cutting intel sharing will grant Russian forces enhanced protection at the operational level. Russian battlefield gains have been dropping since late 2024, but this stands to help Russia rebuild lost momentum.
Reposted by George Barros
For the 58th time in two weeks:
Europe, stop freaking out over every crazy thing Trump says. He will keep saying crazy things every day, and he changes his mind constantly. Focus on what YOU are going to do to advance Ukrainian victory and undermine Russia.
Europe, stop freaking out over every crazy thing Trump says. He will keep saying crazy things every day, and he changes his mind constantly. Focus on what YOU are going to do to advance Ukrainian victory and undermine Russia.
March 3, 2025 at 7:34 PM
For the 58th time in two weeks:
Europe, stop freaking out over every crazy thing Trump says. He will keep saying crazy things every day, and he changes his mind constantly. Focus on what YOU are going to do to advance Ukrainian victory and undermine Russia.
Europe, stop freaking out over every crazy thing Trump says. He will keep saying crazy things every day, and he changes his mind constantly. Focus on what YOU are going to do to advance Ukrainian victory and undermine Russia.
Interesting things are happening in Toretsk.
March 1, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Interesting things are happening in Toretsk.
Belarus has ratified an agreement that will allow Russia to build military bases / installations in Belarus, permanently expanding Russia's forward presence on NATO's Eastern flank.
Not surprising. I've been forecasting such a development for years.
tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...
Not surprising. I've been forecasting such a development for years.
tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...
В Минске ратифицировали договор, позволяющий РФ создавать военные объекты
Документ, в частности, также предусматривает размещение воинских формирований России в Белоруссии
tass.ru
February 26, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Belarus has ratified an agreement that will allow Russia to build military bases / installations in Belarus, permanently expanding Russia's forward presence on NATO's Eastern flank.
Not surprising. I've been forecasting such a development for years.
tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...
Not surprising. I've been forecasting such a development for years.
tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...