Do follow along for great insights from @jillongovt.bsky.social @danhaile.bsky.social @drbenpaxton.bsky.social @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social and @martha-ford.bsky.social

Thank you to colleagues @imperial-jameel.bsky.social and @lshtm.bsky.social for their support on this work, and to @ukri.org for funding. Thanks also to the many experts who spoke to us and to IfG colleagues for reviewing (and improving!) earlier drafts of the paper.

Govt needs to 1️⃣establish a network of external epi-econ researchers 2️⃣strengthen X-govt governance for pandemics 3️⃣develop at least one in-house model 4️⃣create dedicated research funding streams for pandemics 5️⃣create formal structures ahead of time for epi-econ evidence synthesis at the top of govt

There are challenges for govt using these models: analysis is siloed in depts between econ and epi; challenge handling complexity or uncertainty in analysis; govt could ‘use and abuse’ models by over relying on them for perfect solutions in complex scenarios.

Better use of more developed epi-econ models could help next time. Can be used as decision-making tools surfacing trade-offs during pandemics. Also for prep, testing policies under diff scenarios, identifying trade-offs, inflection points & unintended consequences & valuing preparatory investments.

I know this might sound niche but one key problem during Covid was a failure to join up public health expertise and economics - too often this was seen as a straight trade-off, rather than interacting systems where decisions in one feed back to the other.

I discuss this - and other questions about how chancellors can roll the pitch for Budget tax changes - in this week's @instituteforgovernment.org.uk podcast, with @jillongovt.bsky.social and former SpAds Giles Winn and Stewart Wood www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/podcast/rach...