Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
A bit late to this, but it looks like initial claims may be overstating labor market strength/ Another tumble in the Conference Board's gauge in Jan to a new cycle low.
January 27, 2026 at 4:00 PM
A bit late to this, but it looks like initial claims may be overstating labor market strength/ Another tumble in the Conference Board's gauge in Jan to a new cycle low.
For the record, silver topped intraday at 145% above its 200DMA
January 26, 2026 at 9:37 PM
For the record, silver topped intraday at 145% above its 200DMA
Continuing with the Silver theme, Ag has outperformed bitcoin past three years.
(normalized to 100 base)
(normalized to 100 base)
January 26, 2026 at 4:58 PM
Continuing with the Silver theme, Ag has outperformed bitcoin past three years.
(normalized to 100 base)
(normalized to 100 base)
Definitely an epic (dare say crazy) run by Silver which is now trading more that 130% above it's 200 DMA
January 26, 2026 at 4:15 PM
Definitely an epic (dare say crazy) run by Silver which is now trading more that 130% above it's 200 DMA
Beyond PMs, Bloomberg's USD index quietly printing four year lows
January 26, 2026 at 10:58 AM
Beyond PMs, Bloomberg's USD index quietly printing four year lows
Meanwhile, UST 5s continues its cheapening trend YTD vs broad curve. Typical price action as cut cycle nears an end
2s5s30s curve
2s5s30s curve
January 23, 2026 at 2:12 PM
Meanwhile, UST 5s continues its cheapening trend YTD vs broad curve. Typical price action as cut cycle nears an end
2s5s30s curve
2s5s30s curve
Silver looking to print 100
January 23, 2026 at 2:07 PM
Silver looking to print 100
Aussie dollar quietly outgaining other currencies and now at highest level vs USD since late 2024.
January 22, 2026 at 2:09 PM
Aussie dollar quietly outgaining other currencies and now at highest level vs USD since late 2024.
Meanwhile Gold Silver ratio continues selling off and is now below 50x. This is one of the most dramatic moves for the ratio in the modern era.
Ratio vs 200DMA:
Ratio vs 200DMA:
January 20, 2026 at 1:36 PM
Meanwhile Gold Silver ratio continues selling off and is now below 50x. This is one of the most dramatic moves for the ratio in the modern era.
Ratio vs 200DMA:
Ratio vs 200DMA:
Dramatic sell off in Japan's 30 year bond overnight on fiscal worries. US long end pressured higher as well with yield now north of 4.92
January 20, 2026 at 12:17 PM
Dramatic sell off in Japan's 30 year bond overnight on fiscal worries. US long end pressured higher as well with yield now north of 4.92
Rate path has been shifting higher vs 3 months ago as labor market angst has diminished. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.26
January 16, 2026 at 4:09 PM
Rate path has been shifting higher vs 3 months ago as labor market angst has diminished. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.26
Suprised by the recent flattening trend in the back end of the UST curve. With Trump's Fed chair decision imminent would have expected more agita. Hassett not leading Kalshi could be calming nerves.
January 15, 2026 at 1:17 PM
Suprised by the recent flattening trend in the back end of the UST curve. With Trump's Fed chair decision imminent would have expected more agita. Hassett not leading Kalshi could be calming nerves.
With Silver continuing its epic run, an updated spread chart. AG now 103% above its 200DMA
January 14, 2026 at 1:31 PM
With Silver continuing its epic run, an updated spread chart. AG now 103% above its 200DMA
One reason could be Warsh gaining on Kalshi as Hassett fades
January 9, 2026 at 5:27 PM
One reason could be Warsh gaining on Kalshi as Hassett fades
UST 5s30s printing south of 107. It was north of 115 just a few days ago. This spread has been a proxy for trading the US fiscal deficit, tariffs and Trump chair nominee so notable.
January 9, 2026 at 5:22 PM
UST 5s30s printing south of 107. It was north of 115 just a few days ago. This spread has been a proxy for trading the US fiscal deficit, tariffs and Trump chair nominee so notable.
Milestone of sorts as SOFR traded below IOR yesterday. Year-end agita dissipating quickly
January 9, 2026 at 1:02 PM
Milestone of sorts as SOFR traded below IOR yesterday. Year-end agita dissipating quickly
With Trump's Fed chair announcement imminent, cut cycle terminal rate ironically drifting upward, now 25 bps higher than mid-Oct and currently a pie-like 3.14%
January 8, 2026 at 2:23 PM
With Trump's Fed chair announcement imminent, cut cycle terminal rate ironically drifting upward, now 25 bps higher than mid-Oct and currently a pie-like 3.14%
ISM Services employment gauge with a nice jump
January 7, 2026 at 3:01 PM
ISM Services employment gauge with a nice jump
Silver's purchasing power exploding in terms of crude. NB April 2020 was the pandemic related Oil price craziness
January 6, 2026 at 5:41 PM
Silver's purchasing power exploding in terms of crude. NB April 2020 was the pandemic related Oil price craziness
The actual ratio chart is dramatic as well
January 2, 2026 at 4:30 PM
The actual ratio chart is dramatic as well
Gold Silver ratio is historically oversold here which should keep Silver vol high in the near term
January 2, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Gold Silver ratio is historically oversold here which should keep Silver vol high in the near term
Dec S&P Global US manufacturing blurb
January 2, 2026 at 2:47 PM
Dec S&P Global US manufacturing blurb
My bad on this. This is the 2nd most overbought episode. Somehow I clipped the Hunts Brother Silver squeeze. Which really drives home how crazy that move was.
December 28, 2025 at 4:43 PM
My bad on this. This is the 2nd most overbought episode. Somehow I clipped the Hunts Brother Silver squeeze. Which really drives home how crazy that move was.
Based on this metric, this is the most overbought Silver has ever been. Current silver price is now 77% above its 200 Day Moving Average
December 26, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Based on this metric, this is the most overbought Silver has ever been. Current silver price is now 77% above its 200 Day Moving Average
Silver topping out a bit after matching the 2011 epic run last night at 72% above 200DMA
December 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Silver topping out a bit after matching the 2011 epic run last night at 72% above 200DMA