Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Pinned
Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
· Oct 6
Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Meanwhile Gold Silver ratio continues selling off and is now below 50x. This is one of the most dramatic moves for the ratio in the modern era.
Ratio vs 200DMA:
Ratio vs 200DMA:
January 20, 2026 at 1:36 PM
Meanwhile Gold Silver ratio continues selling off and is now below 50x. This is one of the most dramatic moves for the ratio in the modern era.
Ratio vs 200DMA:
Ratio vs 200DMA:
Dramatic sell off in Japan's 30 year bond overnight on fiscal worries. US long end pressured higher as well with yield now north of 4.92
January 20, 2026 at 12:17 PM
Dramatic sell off in Japan's 30 year bond overnight on fiscal worries. US long end pressured higher as well with yield now north of 4.92
Rate path has been shifting higher vs 3 months ago as labor market angst has diminished. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.26
January 16, 2026 at 4:09 PM
Rate path has been shifting higher vs 3 months ago as labor market angst has diminished. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.26
Suprised by the recent flattening trend in the back end of the UST curve. With Trump's Fed chair decision imminent would have expected more agita. Hassett not leading Kalshi could be calming nerves.
January 15, 2026 at 1:17 PM
Suprised by the recent flattening trend in the back end of the UST curve. With Trump's Fed chair decision imminent would have expected more agita. Hassett not leading Kalshi could be calming nerves.
With Silver continuing its epic run, an updated spread chart. AG now 103% above its 200DMA
January 14, 2026 at 1:31 PM
With Silver continuing its epic run, an updated spread chart. AG now 103% above its 200DMA
Another soft core print. Looks like 0.16
January 13, 2026 at 1:32 PM
Another soft core print. Looks like 0.16
USTs with a relatively muted reaction to the DOJ's subpoena of the Fed. 5s30s opened a bit steeper but move got faded from the start of the cash market opening.
January 12, 2026 at 3:09 PM
USTs with a relatively muted reaction to the DOJ's subpoena of the Fed. 5s30s opened a bit steeper but move got faded from the start of the cash market opening.
UST 5s30s printing south of 107. It was north of 115 just a few days ago. This spread has been a proxy for trading the US fiscal deficit, tariffs and Trump chair nominee so notable.
January 9, 2026 at 5:22 PM
UST 5s30s printing south of 107. It was north of 115 just a few days ago. This spread has been a proxy for trading the US fiscal deficit, tariffs and Trump chair nominee so notable.
UST focus seems to be shifting to the bunched up coupon auctions early next week. Supply will be in an issue in Jan with IG debt sales also ramping up.
January 9, 2026 at 1:41 PM
UST focus seems to be shifting to the bunched up coupon auctions early next week. Supply will be in an issue in Jan with IG debt sales also ramping up.
Milestone of sorts as SOFR traded below IOR yesterday. Year-end agita dissipating quickly
January 9, 2026 at 1:02 PM
Milestone of sorts as SOFR traded below IOR yesterday. Year-end agita dissipating quickly
Bessent: Trump may decide on Fed right before or after Davos
(Ed: that's Jan 19-23)
(Ed: that's Jan 19-23)
January 8, 2026 at 6:29 PM
Bessent: Trump may decide on Fed right before or after Davos
(Ed: that's Jan 19-23)
(Ed: that's Jan 19-23)
With Trump's Fed chair announcement imminent, cut cycle terminal rate ironically drifting upward, now 25 bps higher than mid-Oct and currently a pie-like 3.14%
January 8, 2026 at 2:23 PM
With Trump's Fed chair announcement imminent, cut cycle terminal rate ironically drifting upward, now 25 bps higher than mid-Oct and currently a pie-like 3.14%
ISM Services employment gauge with a nice jump
January 7, 2026 at 3:01 PM
ISM Services employment gauge with a nice jump
Market back to ignoring ADP now that BLS is back publishing payroll data. Dec NFP prints Friday
January 7, 2026 at 1:18 PM
Market back to ignoring ADP now that BLS is back publishing payroll data. Dec NFP prints Friday
Silver's purchasing power exploding in terms of crude. NB April 2020 was the pandemic related Oil price craziness
January 6, 2026 at 5:41 PM
Silver's purchasing power exploding in terms of crude. NB April 2020 was the pandemic related Oil price craziness
New Investment Grade issuance will ramp up now that year-end turn is out of the way. 20 borrowers lining up to issue debt today
January 5, 2026 at 1:30 PM
New Investment Grade issuance will ramp up now that year-end turn is out of the way. 20 borrowers lining up to issue debt today
The Kevins are currently neck and neck on Kalshi and the imminent decision may matter more to USTs than this week's payrolls, at least in the short run.
kalshi.com/markets/kxfe...
kalshi.com/markets/kxfe...
January 5, 2026 at 12:31 PM
The Kevins are currently neck and neck on Kalshi and the imminent decision may matter more to USTs than this week's payrolls, at least in the short run.
kalshi.com/markets/kxfe...
kalshi.com/markets/kxfe...
Gold Silver ratio is historically oversold here which should keep Silver vol high in the near term
January 2, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Gold Silver ratio is historically oversold here which should keep Silver vol high in the near term
Dec S&P Global US manufacturing blurb
January 2, 2026 at 2:47 PM
Dec S&P Global US manufacturing blurb
Happy New Year. Wishing you all a Joyous 2026 ❤️
January 1, 2026 at 12:33 AM
Happy New Year. Wishing you all a Joyous 2026 ❤️
Silver having a dramatic Sunday night reversal. Surprised it happened in the overnight session
December 29, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Silver having a dramatic Sunday night reversal. Surprised it happened in the overnight session
Based on this metric, this is the most overbought Silver has ever been. Current silver price is now 77% above its 200 Day Moving Average
December 26, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Based on this metric, this is the most overbought Silver has ever been. Current silver price is now 77% above its 200 Day Moving Average
What would be funner for Xmas Eve than a big scary tail. Let's make the last coupon auction of 2025 memorable.
www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annce...
www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annce...
December 24, 2025 at 4:19 PM
What would be funner for Xmas Eve than a big scary tail. Let's make the last coupon auction of 2025 memorable.
www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annce...
www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annce...