Fabian Hoffmann
@frhoffmann.bsky.social
Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, University of Oslo. Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy.
Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence 👇
https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence 👇
https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
I’ve written a short piece on the recent reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile defense intercept rate.
It will be published tomorrow morning on my Missile Matters blog. You can sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
It will be published tomorrow morning on my Missile Matters blog. You can sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
October 6, 2025 at 11:42 AM
I’ve written a short piece on the recent reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile defense intercept rate.
It will be published tomorrow morning on my Missile Matters blog. You can sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
It will be published tomorrow morning on my Missile Matters blog. You can sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
European defense manufacturer Helsing presented the CA-1 Europa, a UCAV reportedly capable of performing a range of missions, including deep precision strike.
First test flight expected in 2027.
First test flight expected in 2027.
September 25, 2025 at 11:01 AM
European defense manufacturer Helsing presented the CA-1 Europa, a UCAV reportedly capable of performing a range of missions, including deep precision strike.
First test flight expected in 2027.
First test flight expected in 2027.
However, Safran only supplies high-end turbojet engines that are not suitable for the large numbers of lighter cruise missiles Europe will require.
This is why the Czech manufacturer PBS, which produces suitable engines, but is orienting itself toward the US, is bad news for Europe.
4/7
This is why the Czech manufacturer PBS, which produces suitable engines, but is orienting itself toward the US, is bad news for Europe.
4/7
September 21, 2025 at 11:36 AM
However, Safran only supplies high-end turbojet engines that are not suitable for the large numbers of lighter cruise missiles Europe will require.
This is why the Czech manufacturer PBS, which produces suitable engines, but is orienting itself toward the US, is bad news for Europe.
4/7
This is why the Czech manufacturer PBS, which produces suitable engines, but is orienting itself toward the US, is bad news for Europe.
4/7
Unfortunately, the European mini jet engine industry is in a precarious state. Including Ukraine and Turkey, Europe had only four miniature jet engine manufacturers before 2022.
Safran was, and remains, by far the largest, supplying engines to most European cruise missile programs.
3/7
Safran was, and remains, by far the largest, supplying engines to most European cruise missile programs.
3/7
September 21, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Unfortunately, the European mini jet engine industry is in a precarious state. Including Ukraine and Turkey, Europe had only four miniature jet engine manufacturers before 2022.
Safran was, and remains, by far the largest, supplying engines to most European cruise missile programs.
3/7
Safran was, and remains, by far the largest, supplying engines to most European cruise missile programs.
3/7
It is difficult to overstate what an industry-policy failure it is for the EU and wider Europe to have enticed PBS Group to invest in the United States rather than scale up production in Europe.
1/2
1/2
September 9, 2025 at 11:01 AM
It is difficult to overstate what an industry-policy failure it is for the EU and wider Europe to have enticed PBS Group to invest in the United States rather than scale up production in Europe.
1/2
1/2
Russia launched 805 Shahed-type long-range drones in a single attack.
Current output is about 90 per day and set to rise to at least 115 by year’s end, including with major Chinese support.
1/2
Current output is about 90 per day and set to rise to at least 115 by year’s end, including with major Chinese support.
1/2
September 7, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Russia launched 805 Shahed-type long-range drones in a single attack.
Current output is about 90 per day and set to rise to at least 115 by year’s end, including with major Chinese support.
1/2
Current output is about 90 per day and set to rise to at least 115 by year’s end, including with major Chinese support.
1/2
I'll publish a more comprehensive battle damage assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo’s first confirmed combat use on my Substack tomorrow morning.
After reviewing the site and taking proper measurements, I am somewhat less impressed by the missile.
Sign up here:
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After reviewing the site and taking proper measurements, I am somewhat less impressed by the missile.
Sign up here:
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
September 4, 2025 at 8:04 PM
I'll publish a more comprehensive battle damage assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo’s first confirmed combat use on my Substack tomorrow morning.
After reviewing the site and taking proper measurements, I am somewhat less impressed by the missile.
Sign up here:
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
After reviewing the site and taking proper measurements, I am somewhat less impressed by the missile.
Sign up here:
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
Working on a Ukrainian LRS dataset:
Does anyone have reliable information on whether the baseline version of the R-360 Neptune, which became operational in 2021, already included a GPS receiver, or did it rely entirely on inertial navigation for midcourse guidance?
Information I find is ambiguous.
Does anyone have reliable information on whether the baseline version of the R-360 Neptune, which became operational in 2021, already included a GPS receiver, or did it rely entirely on inertial navigation for midcourse guidance?
Information I find is ambiguous.
September 4, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Working on a Ukrainian LRS dataset:
Does anyone have reliable information on whether the baseline version of the R-360 Neptune, which became operational in 2021, already included a GPS receiver, or did it rely entirely on inertial navigation for midcourse guidance?
Information I find is ambiguous.
Does anyone have reliable information on whether the baseline version of the R-360 Neptune, which became operational in 2021, already included a GPS receiver, or did it rely entirely on inertial navigation for midcourse guidance?
Information I find is ambiguous.
So apparently the specifications of the Palyanytsya missile have been published.
The system has previously been described as a missile-drone hybrid, as also noted below.
But looking at the specifications, it is essentially another mini-cruise missile.
1/2
The system has previously been described as a missile-drone hybrid, as also noted below.
But looking at the specifications, it is essentially another mini-cruise missile.
1/2
September 2, 2025 at 6:22 PM
So apparently the specifications of the Palyanytsya missile have been published.
The system has previously been described as a missile-drone hybrid, as also noted below.
But looking at the specifications, it is essentially another mini-cruise missile.
1/2
The system has previously been described as a missile-drone hybrid, as also noted below.
But looking at the specifications, it is essentially another mini-cruise missile.
1/2
I could now go on about how it took 3.5 years to get here, and how much the previous German government, and partly this one, failed to realize this simple fact.
But for now, let’s just be glad that the metaphorical floor of what must be done has finally been reached.
1/3
But for now, let’s just be glad that the metaphorical floor of what must be done has finally been reached.
1/3
September 1, 2025 at 1:45 PM
I could now go on about how it took 3.5 years to get here, and how much the previous German government, and partly this one, failed to realize this simple fact.
But for now, let’s just be glad that the metaphorical floor of what must be done has finally been reached.
1/3
But for now, let’s just be glad that the metaphorical floor of what must be done has finally been reached.
1/3
First picture of the "Long Neptune", a range-enhanced 1000-kilometer variant of the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile.
Note the increased diameter in the midsection, likely for additional fuel, while the propulsion & warhead sections appear to remain unchanged compared to the baseline version.
1/2
Note the increased diameter in the midsection, likely for additional fuel, while the propulsion & warhead sections appear to remain unchanged compared to the baseline version.
1/2
August 25, 2025 at 11:52 AM
First picture of the "Long Neptune", a range-enhanced 1000-kilometer variant of the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile.
Note the increased diameter in the midsection, likely for additional fuel, while the propulsion & warhead sections appear to remain unchanged compared to the baseline version.
1/2
Note the increased diameter in the midsection, likely for additional fuel, while the propulsion & warhead sections appear to remain unchanged compared to the baseline version.
1/2
A comprehensive assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo will be published tomorrow morning in my newsletter.
I'll discuss the missile's characteristics and its implications for the war and Europe.
Sign up her to receive it straight to your inbox.
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
I'll discuss the missile's characteristics and its implications for the war and Europe.
Sign up her to receive it straight to your inbox.
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
August 22, 2025 at 5:17 PM
A comprehensive assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo will be published tomorrow morning in my newsletter.
I'll discuss the missile's characteristics and its implications for the war and Europe.
Sign up her to receive it straight to your inbox.
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
I'll discuss the missile's characteristics and its implications for the war and Europe.
Sign up her to receive it straight to your inbox.
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
Lavrov is literally performing standup comedy at this point.
August 20, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Lavrov is literally performing standup comedy at this point.
On thing to note is that the long-range strike issue is one area where the Merz government handled matters well.
I am not a fan of the decision not to supply Taurus in the end, as the political signal would have been important.
1/3
I am not a fan of the decision not to supply Taurus in the end, as the political signal would have been important.
1/3
August 18, 2025 at 11:21 AM
On thing to note is that the long-range strike issue is one area where the Merz government handled matters well.
I am not a fan of the decision not to supply Taurus in the end, as the political signal would have been important.
1/3
I am not a fan of the decision not to supply Taurus in the end, as the political signal would have been important.
1/3
Reported specifications (treat with caution as not yet verified in any way):
August 17, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Reported specifications (treat with caution as not yet verified in any way):
So, apparently a new Ukrainian cruise missile has entered the chat.
3,000+ km range, 1,000 kg payload capacity. That's the long-range, heavy-hitter Ukraine has been waiting for.
The fact that this leaked today is unlikely to be a coincidence.
3,000+ km range, 1,000 kg payload capacity. That's the long-range, heavy-hitter Ukraine has been waiting for.
The fact that this leaked today is unlikely to be a coincidence.
August 17, 2025 at 8:18 PM
So, apparently a new Ukrainian cruise missile has entered the chat.
3,000+ km range, 1,000 kg payload capacity. That's the long-range, heavy-hitter Ukraine has been waiting for.
The fact that this leaked today is unlikely to be a coincidence.
3,000+ km range, 1,000 kg payload capacity. That's the long-range, heavy-hitter Ukraine has been waiting for.
The fact that this leaked today is unlikely to be a coincidence.
I'm sorry, but the arguments in this thread make no sense.
"While the wording differs, in both cases the underlying criterion is the missile’s tested capability".
If the negotiators had wanted the same criterion for GLBMs and GLCMs, they could have easily written it that way.
1/5
"While the wording differs, in both cases the underlying criterion is the missile’s tested capability".
If the negotiators had wanted the same criterion for GLBMs and GLCMs, they could have easily written it that way.
1/5
August 12, 2025 at 4:24 PM
I'm sorry, but the arguments in this thread make no sense.
"While the wording differs, in both cases the underlying criterion is the missile’s tested capability".
If the negotiators had wanted the same criterion for GLBMs and GLCMs, they could have easily written it that way.
1/5
"While the wording differs, in both cases the underlying criterion is the missile’s tested capability".
If the negotiators had wanted the same criterion for GLBMs and GLCMs, they could have easily written it that way.
1/5
My analysis suggests that a conservative estimate of the 9M729’s characteristics, particularly the size of its fuel tank, indicates a range of 1,400 to 1,700 kilometers, well above the 500-kilometer limit.
4/7
4/7
August 10, 2025 at 10:00 AM
My analysis suggests that a conservative estimate of the 9M729’s characteristics, particularly the size of its fuel tank, indicates a range of 1,400 to 1,700 kilometers, well above the 500-kilometer limit.
4/7
4/7
That is exactly what Russia tried to claim in 2019, and it was as unconvincing then as it is now.
I'm still losing it over this comically large control section and the tiny fuel tank depicted.
4/6
I'm still losing it over this comically large control section and the tiny fuel tank depicted.
4/6
August 9, 2025 at 4:49 PM
That is exactly what Russia tried to claim in 2019, and it was as unconvincing then as it is now.
I'm still losing it over this comically large control section and the tiny fuel tank depicted.
4/6
I'm still losing it over this comically large control section and the tiny fuel tank depicted.
4/6
Approximate dimensions of the 9M729 according to Russian specifications.
The graphic, published by Sputnik News in 2019, matches Russia’s stated dimensions: a 51.4 cm diameter and a length 53 cm greater than the 9M728, which is reportedly 6.2 m long, making the 9M729 roughly 6.73 m in total.
1/6
The graphic, published by Sputnik News in 2019, matches Russia’s stated dimensions: a 51.4 cm diameter and a length 53 cm greater than the 9M728, which is reportedly 6.2 m long, making the 9M729 roughly 6.73 m in total.
1/6
August 9, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Approximate dimensions of the 9M729 according to Russian specifications.
The graphic, published by Sputnik News in 2019, matches Russia’s stated dimensions: a 51.4 cm diameter and a length 53 cm greater than the 9M728, which is reportedly 6.2 m long, making the 9M729 roughly 6.73 m in total.
1/6
The graphic, published by Sputnik News in 2019, matches Russia’s stated dimensions: a 51.4 cm diameter and a length 53 cm greater than the 9M728, which is reportedly 6.2 m long, making the 9M729 roughly 6.73 m in total.
1/6
Following public demand, I sat down and ran the numbers for Patriot and SAMP/T interceptor production in the United States and Europe, both for 2025 and looking ahead.
The picture is clear: the math ain't mathing when it comes to Europe’s denial-based missile defense strategy.
1/2
The picture is clear: the math ain't mathing when it comes to Europe’s denial-based missile defense strategy.
1/2
July 5, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Following public demand, I sat down and ran the numbers for Patriot and SAMP/T interceptor production in the United States and Europe, both for 2025 and looking ahead.
The picture is clear: the math ain't mathing when it comes to Europe’s denial-based missile defense strategy.
1/2
The picture is clear: the math ain't mathing when it comes to Europe’s denial-based missile defense strategy.
1/2
It’s infuriating that the United States has halted delivery of Patriot interceptors, and yes, the 30 PAC-3 MSEs stored in Poland would have helped & are badly needed.
But our missile defense cannot keep pace with Russia’s missile production. Trying to win that race puts us on the losing side.
1/2
But our missile defense cannot keep pace with Russia’s missile production. Trying to win that race puts us on the losing side.
1/2
July 4, 2025 at 8:25 AM
It’s infuriating that the United States has halted delivery of Patriot interceptors, and yes, the 30 PAC-3 MSEs stored in Poland would have helped & are badly needed.
But our missile defense cannot keep pace with Russia’s missile production. Trying to win that race puts us on the losing side.
1/2
But our missile defense cannot keep pace with Russia’s missile production. Trying to win that race puts us on the losing side.
1/2
Though official figures should be treated with caution, I'd say they align with available imagery and pre-war expectations.
Including impacts in non-urban areas, Iranian missiles likely have a 5–10% “success rate”, defined here as missiles that penetrated landed near their intended targets.
1/3
Including impacts in non-urban areas, Iranian missiles likely have a 5–10% “success rate”, defined here as missiles that penetrated landed near their intended targets.
1/3
June 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Though official figures should be treated with caution, I'd say they align with available imagery and pre-war expectations.
Including impacts in non-urban areas, Iranian missiles likely have a 5–10% “success rate”, defined here as missiles that penetrated landed near their intended targets.
1/3
Including impacts in non-urban areas, Iranian missiles likely have a 5–10% “success rate”, defined here as missiles that penetrated landed near their intended targets.
1/3
Europa muss jetzt dringend die Rüstungsindustrie hochfahren.
Um nur ein Beispiel zu nennen: Russland produziert jährlich 700 Kurzstreckenballistische Raketen. In Europa sind es genau null.
Das ist in keiner Weise akzeptabel, und dieses Delta muss dringend behoben werden.
Um nur ein Beispiel zu nennen: Russland produziert jährlich 700 Kurzstreckenballistische Raketen. In Europa sind es genau null.
Das ist in keiner Weise akzeptabel, und dieses Delta muss dringend behoben werden.
June 4, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Europa muss jetzt dringend die Rüstungsindustrie hochfahren.
Um nur ein Beispiel zu nennen: Russland produziert jährlich 700 Kurzstreckenballistische Raketen. In Europa sind es genau null.
Das ist in keiner Weise akzeptabel, und dieses Delta muss dringend behoben werden.
Um nur ein Beispiel zu nennen: Russland produziert jährlich 700 Kurzstreckenballistische Raketen. In Europa sind es genau null.
Das ist in keiner Weise akzeptabel, und dieses Delta muss dringend behoben werden.
Germany will finance several Ukrainian missile and drone capabilities, including the BARS and AN-196 Liutyi long-range strike systems (700-800 km and 1,000-2,000 km range, respectively), according to German newspaper Die Welt.
2/5
2/5
May 29, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Germany will finance several Ukrainian missile and drone capabilities, including the BARS and AN-196 Liutyi long-range strike systems (700-800 km and 1,000-2,000 km range, respectively), according to German newspaper Die Welt.
2/5
2/5