Felix Schenuit
@felixschenuit.bsky.social
researcher @SWP Berlin • currently seconded to BMUKN • IPCC AR 7 WGIII Lead Author • views my own
Wording on the ETS-2 implementation framework:
October 23, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Wording on the ETS-2 implementation framework:
EUCO conclusions on the 2040 climate target and ETS-2. It is now up to the environment ministers to agree on a specific number (most likely net 90%) and the next steps at the ENVI Council on November 4.
October 23, 2025 at 6:54 PM
EUCO conclusions on the 2040 climate target and ETS-2. It is now up to the environment ministers to agree on a specific number (most likely net 90%) and the next steps at the ENVI Council on November 4.
The legislative proposal for the 2040 target has landed:
▶️ 90% reduction of net GHG compared to 1990 (no separate target for removals!)
▶️ flexibilities as central element, incl. international credits & domestic CDR
▶️NDC will include an *indicative* 2035 figure
climate.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...
▶️ 90% reduction of net GHG compared to 1990 (no separate target for removals!)
▶️ flexibilities as central element, incl. international credits & domestic CDR
▶️NDC will include an *indicative* 2035 figure
climate.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...
July 2, 2025 at 10:28 AM
The legislative proposal for the 2040 target has landed:
▶️ 90% reduction of net GHG compared to 1990 (no separate target for removals!)
▶️ flexibilities as central element, incl. international credits & domestic CDR
▶️NDC will include an *indicative* 2035 figure
climate.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...
▶️ 90% reduction of net GHG compared to 1990 (no separate target for removals!)
▶️ flexibilities as central element, incl. international credits & domestic CDR
▶️NDC will include an *indicative* 2035 figure
climate.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...
New SWP publication: “International Credits in EU Climate Policy: Old Conflicts, New Challenges”
We currently see a renaissance of international credits in EU climate policy. In this piece, I discuss the politics of the 2040 target & the possible role for Art. 6
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
We currently see a renaissance of international credits in EU climate policy. In this piece, I discuss the politics of the 2040 target & the possible role for Art. 6
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
June 23, 2025 at 4:43 AM
New SWP publication: “International Credits in EU Climate Policy: Old Conflicts, New Challenges”
We currently see a renaissance of international credits in EU climate policy. In this piece, I discuss the politics of the 2040 target & the possible role for Art. 6
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
We currently see a renaissance of international credits in EU climate policy. In this piece, I discuss the politics of the 2040 target & the possible role for Art. 6
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
The Polish Presidency is taking the next step to break the link between the 2040 target and the 2035 NDC.
Contexte published the Note circulated by the Presidency last week.
Contexte published the Note circulated by the Presidency last week.
June 12, 2025 at 7:51 AM
The Polish Presidency is taking the next step to break the link between the 2040 target and the 2035 NDC.
Contexte published the Note circulated by the Presidency last week.
Contexte published the Note circulated by the Presidency last week.
The EU is losing a key ally in its CCS policy. The EPA's mandate that new gas/coal power plants provide capture capacity in the 2030s was an innovative instrument. The EU will now have to look for other partners to scale up the technology
www.politico.com/news/2025/06...
www.politico.com/news/2025/06...
June 11, 2025 at 9:10 AM
The EU is losing a key ally in its CCS policy. The EPA's mandate that new gas/coal power plants provide capture capacity in the 2030s was an innovative instrument. The EU will now have to look for other partners to scale up the technology
www.politico.com/news/2025/06...
www.politico.com/news/2025/06...
Damit hat sie einer Debatte neue Bedeutung verschafft, die sich schon länger anbahnte. Die genaue Ausgestaltung des Ziels und die Integration internationaler Zertifikate in EU-Instrumente wie den EU ETS sind offen – Konflikte darüber werden die bevorstehenden Gesetzgebungsprozesse prägen. /3
June 5, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Damit hat sie einer Debatte neue Bedeutung verschafft, die sich schon länger anbahnte. Die genaue Ausgestaltung des Ziels und die Integration internationaler Zertifikate in EU-Instrumente wie den EU ETS sind offen – Konflikte darüber werden die bevorstehenden Gesetzgebungsprozesse prägen. /3
Neue SWP-Publikation zur Rolle internationaler Zertifikate in der EU-Klimapolitik. Die EU steht vor der entscheidenden Frage, wie ihr neues Emissionsminderungsziel für 2040 aussehen soll - und welche Rolle Art. 6 Zertifikate dabei spielen können und sollen.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
/1
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
/1
June 5, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Neue SWP-Publikation zur Rolle internationaler Zertifikate in der EU-Klimapolitik. Die EU steht vor der entscheidenden Frage, wie ihr neues Emissionsminderungsziel für 2040 aussehen soll - und welche Rolle Art. 6 Zertifikate dabei spielen können und sollen.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
/1
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
/1
With 5 months to go until COP30, the EU still has no NDC. The ESABCC and others are still calling for the Climate Law to be amended first. This requires a time consuming legislative procedure and could result in the EU having no NDC in time. The consequences would be worse than those of a lower NDC.
June 2, 2025 at 5:53 PM
With 5 months to go until COP30, the EU still has no NDC. The ESABCC and others are still calling for the Climate Law to be amended first. This requires a time consuming legislative procedure and could result in the EU having no NDC in time. The consequences would be worse than those of a lower NDC.
Not new, but it will influence the German climate discourse: Karsten Hilse (AfD, extreme right), who represents what is now the largest opposition party, said today:
▶️"So far there is not a single scientific proof that human-made CO2 emissions influence the climate at all - no scientific proof."
▶️"So far there is not a single scientific proof that human-made CO2 emissions influence the climate at all - no scientific proof."
May 15, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Not new, but it will influence the German climate discourse: Karsten Hilse (AfD, extreme right), who represents what is now the largest opposition party, said today:
▶️"So far there is not a single scientific proof that human-made CO2 emissions influence the climate at all - no scientific proof."
▶️"So far there is not a single scientific proof that human-made CO2 emissions influence the climate at all - no scientific proof."
We raised this scenario (NDC decoupled from 2040 target) in a post last year - it's reasonable to assume that a new NDC won't necessarily be in line with a net 90% mitigation target. www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...
May 14, 2025 at 8:35 AM
We raised this scenario (NDC decoupled from 2040 target) in a post last year - it's reasonable to assume that a new NDC won't necessarily be in line with a net 90% mitigation target. www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...
The 2040 target will not be adopted this year and the delay will affect the Fit for 2040 package (ETS review, etc) as well as the submission of the NDC. An alternative process would be needed for the NDC, according to Chris Bolesta (Polish Deputy Minister of Energy) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
May 14, 2025 at 8:35 AM
The 2040 target will not be adopted this year and the delay will affect the Fit for 2040 package (ETS review, etc) as well as the submission of the NDC. An alternative process would be needed for the NDC, according to Chris Bolesta (Polish Deputy Minister of Energy) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
2/3 der Deutschen glaubt nicht, dass Klimaneutralität in 20 Jahren erreicht wird. Mit interessanten Unterschieden zwischen Parteipräferenzem (CDU>SPD, Linke>Grüne) www.zeit.de/2025/19/klim...
May 10, 2025 at 7:41 AM
2/3 der Deutschen glaubt nicht, dass Klimaneutralität in 20 Jahren erreicht wird. Mit interessanten Unterschieden zwischen Parteipräferenzem (CDU>SPD, Linke>Grüne) www.zeit.de/2025/19/klim...
Interessant ist auch die Abschichtung, dass das BMU die „fachliche Zuständigkeit“ für die internationalen Verhandlungen hat. In anderen Fällen ist es nur „Zuständigkeit“. Womöglich behält AA damit die Möglichkeit in Verhandlungen politisch zu repräsentieren?
May 7, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Interessant ist auch die Abschichtung, dass das BMU die „fachliche Zuständigkeit“ für die internationalen Verhandlungen hat. In anderen Fällen ist es nur „Zuständigkeit“. Womöglich behält AA damit die Möglichkeit in Verhandlungen politisch zu repräsentieren?
Glad the really important things are getting done.
April 22, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Glad the really important things are getting done.
4️⃣ With the possible reversal of CDR policy in the USA, the EU/Germany have an opportunity to lead globally, enhancing innovation & competitiveness
5️⃣ We analyze 4 feasible policy options with examples in other countries: tax credits, public procurement, contracts for difference, reversed auctions
5️⃣ We analyze 4 feasible policy options with examples in other countries: tax credits, public procurement, contracts for difference, reversed auctions
April 10, 2025 at 9:09 AM
4️⃣ With the possible reversal of CDR policy in the USA, the EU/Germany have an opportunity to lead globally, enhancing innovation & competitiveness
5️⃣ We analyze 4 feasible policy options with examples in other countries: tax credits, public procurement, contracts for difference, reversed auctions
5️⃣ We analyze 4 feasible policy options with examples in other countries: tax credits, public procurement, contracts for difference, reversed auctions
New Publication: "Scaling Industrial Carbon Dioxide Removal: Policy Options for a Short-Term Strategy".
In our policy brief, D. Treß and I highlight the role of 'industrial CDR' and why we need a short-term strategy targeting low-hanging CDR potentials.
🔗 www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...
In our policy brief, D. Treß and I highlight the role of 'industrial CDR' and why we need a short-term strategy targeting low-hanging CDR potentials.
🔗 www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...
April 10, 2025 at 9:09 AM
New Publication: "Scaling Industrial Carbon Dioxide Removal: Policy Options for a Short-Term Strategy".
In our policy brief, D. Treß and I highlight the role of 'industrial CDR' and why we need a short-term strategy targeting low-hanging CDR potentials.
🔗 www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...
In our policy brief, D. Treß and I highlight the role of 'industrial CDR' and why we need a short-term strategy targeting low-hanging CDR potentials.
🔗 www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...
This is new: @nytimes.com app has ads from Germany's far-right AfD party - which is looking for staff for its new, now much larger, parliamentary group in the German Bundestag.
April 6, 2025 at 4:16 PM
This is new: @nytimes.com app has ads from Germany's far-right AfD party - which is looking for staff for its new, now much larger, parliamentary group in the German Bundestag.
Joint statement by China and France on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement includes a short Note on the "upcoming new ambitious NDCs".
A first (public) step towards much needed exchanges and cooperation on submittting NDCs before COP30? www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-f...
A first (public) step towards much needed exchanges and cooperation on submittting NDCs before COP30? www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-f...
March 27, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Joint statement by China and France on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement includes a short Note on the "upcoming new ambitious NDCs".
A first (public) step towards much needed exchanges and cooperation on submittting NDCs before COP30? www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-f...
A first (public) step towards much needed exchanges and cooperation on submittting NDCs before COP30? www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-f...
The EUCO conclusions show how climate policy is being sidelined, at least rhetorically. Not a word on the 2040 target. Energy is back in the spotlight. Interestingly, after the official "completion" of the Energy Union in 2019 (Cañete), it's now about a "genuine" Energy Union - whatever that means..
March 21, 2025 at 8:52 AM
The EUCO conclusions show how climate policy is being sidelined, at least rhetorically. Not a word on the 2040 target. Energy is back in the spotlight. Interestingly, after the official "completion" of the Energy Union in 2019 (Cañete), it's now about a "genuine" Energy Union - whatever that means..
Ah, that's why they used climate neutrality instead of GHG neutrality..
Before we invest in SRM, we'll have a debate about international credits again, framed as efforts to set up an international ETS. We're already seeing this at EU level and today the FDP also had it in their Entschließungsantrag
Before we invest in SRM, we'll have a debate about international credits again, framed as efforts to set up an international ETS. We're already seeing this at EU level and today the FDP also had it in their Entschließungsantrag
March 18, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Ah, that's why they used climate neutrality instead of GHG neutrality..
Before we invest in SRM, we'll have a debate about international credits again, framed as efforts to set up an international ETS. We're already seeing this at EU level and today the FDP also had it in their Entschließungsantrag
Before we invest in SRM, we'll have a debate about international credits again, framed as efforts to set up an international ETS. We're already seeing this at EU level and today the FDP also had it in their Entschließungsantrag
The German Environment Agency raised its emissions projection for 2045 by 20%. To 204 Mt compared to last year's 169 Mt CO2e. Germany will not be able to achieve enough carbon removals to counterbalance this. It shows, once again, that CDR doesn't make sense without drastic emissions reductions.
March 18, 2025 at 10:19 AM
The German Environment Agency raised its emissions projection for 2045 by 20%. To 204 Mt compared to last year's 169 Mt CO2e. Germany will not be able to achieve enough carbon removals to counterbalance this. It shows, once again, that CDR doesn't make sense without drastic emissions reductions.
Danke für die Arbeit an den Projektionen.
Kurze Frage: Sind die 204Mt in 2045 aus den Projektionen dieses Jahres (Bild 1, von S.11) die gleiche Berechnung wie die Restemissionen 169Mt aus dem letzten Jahr (Bild 2, S.10)? Oder sind das andere Werte?
Kurze Frage: Sind die 204Mt in 2045 aus den Projektionen dieses Jahres (Bild 1, von S.11) die gleiche Berechnung wie die Restemissionen 169Mt aus dem letzten Jahr (Bild 2, S.10)? Oder sind das andere Werte?
March 17, 2025 at 10:38 PM
Danke für die Arbeit an den Projektionen.
Kurze Frage: Sind die 204Mt in 2045 aus den Projektionen dieses Jahres (Bild 1, von S.11) die gleiche Berechnung wie die Restemissionen 169Mt aus dem letzten Jahr (Bild 2, S.10)? Oder sind das andere Werte?
Kurze Frage: Sind die 204Mt in 2045 aus den Projektionen dieses Jahres (Bild 1, von S.11) die gleiche Berechnung wie die Restemissionen 169Mt aus dem letzten Jahr (Bild 2, S.10)? Oder sind das andere Werte?
Die IPCC-Definition von “Klimaneutralität” geht über Emissionen hinaus. Es geht um den "net effect on the climate system", also zB auch um Aktivitäten, die die Albedo oder das lokale Klima beeinflussen. Bislang ist das nicht das Ziel - die GG-Änderung könnte zu Unklarheiten führen. /3
March 16, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Die IPCC-Definition von “Klimaneutralität” geht über Emissionen hinaus. Es geht um den "net effect on the climate system", also zB auch um Aktivitäten, die die Albedo oder das lokale Klima beeinflussen. Bislang ist das nicht das Ziel - die GG-Änderung könnte zu Unklarheiten führen. /3