Chao Wang
@excel-wang.bsky.social
Associate Professor in health and social care statistics at Kingston University. PhD in econometrics.
Reposted by Chao Wang
This by @whippletom.bsky.social is brilliant. A little dose of epistemic humility goes a long way.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
We’ll need good data next time or lockdown arguments multiply
At the start of the pandemic two professors, Martin Landray and Peter Horby, did something that should have been banal but was also rare: they tested drugs
www.thetimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:52 PM
This by @whippletom.bsky.social is brilliant. A little dose of epistemic humility goes a long way.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Reposted by Chao Wang
We tried to tell y'all to stop calling everything "AI" many years ago and you just wouldn't listen and now the poor machine learners must also suffer alongside the statisticians 😜
so I can explain this: it's not generative AI: it's usually deep learning models trained on meteorology tasks and it can be quite effective
I know It would only annoy me, but if you are using weather balloons for data, where does the AI come in?
Because it sounds like they’re just doing meteorology and complicating it with AI.
Because it sounds like they’re just doing meteorology and complicating it with AI.
October 24, 2025 at 4:23 PM
We tried to tell y'all to stop calling everything "AI" many years ago and you just wouldn't listen and now the poor machine learners must also suffer alongside the statisticians 😜
I asked ChatGPT how to calculate confidence intervals without researching and sourcing third-party R packages. Here’s the response.
November 16, 2025 at 1:52 PM
I asked ChatGPT how to calculate confidence intervals without researching and sourcing third-party R packages. Here’s the response.
Reposted by Chao Wang
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
November 12, 2025 at 10:31 AM
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
Using Excel to bootstrap a simple linear regression and visualise the process. drwangstatsconsulting.wordpress.com/2025/10/16/u...
Using Excel to bootstrap a simple linear regression and visualise the process.
Excel is widely used and one of the most familiar professional software among students regardless of their background. Excel can help students, in particular those without statistics background, to…
drwangstatsconsulting.wordpress.com
October 16, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Using Excel to bootstrap a simple linear regression and visualise the process. drwangstatsconsulting.wordpress.com/2025/10/16/u...
Reposted by Chao Wang
The future is bleak:
AI "researchers" will send questionaires to AI "respondents" to collect data on what they "think" about Topic, poorly summarise the results and generate a paper for a mill.
AI peers will review and leave comments.
Other AI will cite the paper (and nonexistent ones).
Wooooo.
AI "researchers" will send questionaires to AI "respondents" to collect data on what they "think" about Topic, poorly summarise the results and generate a paper for a mill.
AI peers will review and leave comments.
Other AI will cite the paper (and nonexistent ones).
Wooooo.
October 1, 2025 at 4:47 AM
The future is bleak:
AI "researchers" will send questionaires to AI "respondents" to collect data on what they "think" about Topic, poorly summarise the results and generate a paper for a mill.
AI peers will review and leave comments.
Other AI will cite the paper (and nonexistent ones).
Wooooo.
AI "researchers" will send questionaires to AI "respondents" to collect data on what they "think" about Topic, poorly summarise the results and generate a paper for a mill.
AI peers will review and leave comments.
Other AI will cite the paper (and nonexistent ones).
Wooooo.
New meta-analysis of effects of 20mph speed limit in the UK shows 𝙣𝙤 statistically significant impact on killed or serious injured (KSI) crashes or injuries on sign-only schemes. t.co/WSvmnbLJ1n
September 17, 2025 at 1:53 PM
New meta-analysis of effects of 20mph speed limit in the UK shows 𝙣𝙤 statistically significant impact on killed or serious injured (KSI) crashes or injuries on sign-only schemes. t.co/WSvmnbLJ1n
Reposted by Chao Wang
I think it was a target trial emulation of difference in differences for a propensity score matched analysis with Bayesian borrowing of historical controls of digital twins based on synthetic data from the real world.
July 21, 2025 at 10:59 AM
I think it was a target trial emulation of difference in differences for a propensity score matched analysis with Bayesian borrowing of historical controls of digital twins based on synthetic data from the real world.
Reposted by Chao Wang
Once you truly understand causal inference theory, it's very hard to win an honest applied grant because:
* Many questions can't be answered
* Almost everything that sounds big and exciting is snake oil
* Most reviewers won't understand
* you're competing with the bandwagon-jumping cynics
* Many questions can't be answered
* Almost everything that sounds big and exciting is snake oil
* Most reviewers won't understand
* you're competing with the bandwagon-jumping cynics
July 17, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Once you truly understand causal inference theory, it's very hard to win an honest applied grant because:
* Many questions can't be answered
* Almost everything that sounds big and exciting is snake oil
* Most reviewers won't understand
* you're competing with the bandwagon-jumping cynics
* Many questions can't be answered
* Almost everything that sounds big and exciting is snake oil
* Most reviewers won't understand
* you're competing with the bandwagon-jumping cynics
More on “Simple method works equally well…” and do you really need SuperLearner?
drwangstatsconsulting.wordpress.com/2025/06/17/m...
drwangstatsconsulting.wordpress.com/2025/06/17/m...
More on “Simple method works equally well…” and do you really need SuperLearner?
I recently came across some interesting tutorials on TMLE. This reminds me of my previous post on comparing different estimators of treatment effects (see here). The default setting in the tmle R p…
drwangstatsconsulting.wordpress.com
June 17, 2025 at 10:13 PM
More on “Simple method works equally well…” and do you really need SuperLearner?
drwangstatsconsulting.wordpress.com/2025/06/17/m...
drwangstatsconsulting.wordpress.com/2025/06/17/m...
Reposted by Chao Wang
Half the data science influencers i followed in 2019 are now LLM/AI influencers, which leads me to believe late 2010s data science scene was all hype
May 3, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Half the data science influencers i followed in 2019 are now LLM/AI influencers, which leads me to believe late 2010s data science scene was all hype
Reposted by Chao Wang
7 habits that make you look like a professor.
May 2, 2025 at 11:18 PM
7 habits that make you look like a professor.
Reposted by Chao Wang
If the goal is to describe or to explain, true high colinearity between important covariates may be a fact of life and difficult to overcome. Quick-fix solutions may result in bad confounding corrections.
Bottom-line: quick fix solutions like PCA are often a poor man's solutions to colinearity
Bottom-line: quick fix solutions like PCA are often a poor man's solutions to colinearity
March 26, 2025 at 2:54 PM
If the goal is to describe or to explain, true high colinearity between important covariates may be a fact of life and difficult to overcome. Quick-fix solutions may result in bad confounding corrections.
Bottom-line: quick fix solutions like PCA are often a poor man's solutions to colinearity
Bottom-line: quick fix solutions like PCA are often a poor man's solutions to colinearity
Reposted by Chao Wang
I get the impression that polisci is now pretty sold on LPM over logit. What's the go to citation making the case for this?
December 3, 2024 at 4:35 PM
I get the impression that polisci is now pretty sold on LPM over logit. What's the go to citation making the case for this?