Eileen Sinclair
@eileenlvk.bsky.social
Observing long-term patterns in people.
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
President Trump said anything less than American control of Greenland would be “unacceptable” in a social-media post hours ahead of a meeting between senior U.S. officials and the foreign ministers of Greenland and Denmark.
Trump Says Greenland Is Vital for U.S.’s National Security
President Trump said anything less than American control of the island would be “unacceptable” in a social-media post, hours ahead of a meeting between senior U.S. officials and the foreign ministers of Greenland and Denmark.
on.wsj.com
January 14, 2026 at 3:35 PM
President Trump said anything less than American control of Greenland would be “unacceptable” in a social-media post hours ahead of a meeting between senior U.S. officials and the foreign ministers of Greenland and Denmark.
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
Craig: "In my district, 2 days ago a special ed teacher pulled into her school parking lot, her windows were smashed, she was taken & detained for 12 hours. I've never seen such an out of control agency. That's why as soon as I leave, I'm joining a group to file articles of impeachment against Noem"
January 14, 2026 at 3:46 PM
Craig: "In my district, 2 days ago a special ed teacher pulled into her school parking lot, her windows were smashed, she was taken & detained for 12 hours. I've never seen such an out of control agency. That's why as soon as I leave, I'm joining a group to file articles of impeachment against Noem"
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
Bill Watterson is my favorite cartoonist. I adored the relationship btw Calvin and Hobbes as a child. But as I've gotten older, these strips feel even more tender and insightful. My respect for him grew when I learned of his stance against merchandising. Such principles are almost unheard of today.
![Excerpt from Wikipedia reads: "Fight against merchandising his characters
For years, Watterson battled against pressure from publishers to merchandise his work, something that he felt would cheapen his comic through compromising the act of creation or reading.[21][22]
He refused to merchandise his creations on the grounds that displaying Calvin and Hobbes images on commercially sold mugs, stickers, and T-shirts would devalue the characters and their personalities. Watterson said that Universal kept putting pressure on him and that he had signed his contract without fully perusing it because, as a new artist, he was happy just to find a syndicate willing to give him a chance (two other syndicates had previously turned him down). He added that the contract was so one-sided that, if Universal really wanted to, they could license his characters against his will, and could even fire him and continue Calvin and Hobbes with a new artist. Watterson's position eventually won out, and he was able to renegotiate his contract so that he would receive all rights to his work. Later he said that the licensing fight exhausted him and contributed to the need for a nine-month sabbatical in 1991.[23]"](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ks3gpa6ftoyaq7hmf6c4qx4c/bafkreihmgl3sxrmb5t6edpjnixyanj2rvcf43zdv46mbifhl7hdtmz5u6y@jpeg)
January 14, 2026 at 6:18 AM
Bill Watterson is my favorite cartoonist. I adored the relationship btw Calvin and Hobbes as a child. But as I've gotten older, these strips feel even more tender and insightful. My respect for him grew when I learned of his stance against merchandising. Such principles are almost unheard of today.
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
If he gets canned he will make many years worth of salary on a Go Fund Me before he wins his grievance through the union.
January 14, 2026 at 3:07 AM
If he gets canned he will make many years worth of salary on a Go Fund Me before he wins his grievance through the union.
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
Inflation remains at 2.7%. Prices for groceries, insurance and other necessities are much higher than they used to be.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumer-price-index-inflation-december-2025-5e292092?mod=hp_lead_pos4
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumer-price-index-inflation-december-2025-5e292092?mod=hp_lead_pos4
Pace of Inflation Held Steady in December; Consumer Prices Up 2.7% on Year
Groceries and restaurant meals had large price increases over the month, while gasoline costs and used car prices declined.
www.wsj.com
January 13, 2026 at 4:15 PM
Inflation remains at 2.7%. Prices for groceries, insurance and other necessities are much higher than they used to be.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumer-price-index-inflation-december-2025-5e292092?mod=hp_lead_pos4
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumer-price-index-inflation-december-2025-5e292092?mod=hp_lead_pos4
Another full day behind me. Grateful for a moment of quiet.
January 12, 2026 at 11:50 PM
Another full day behind me. Grateful for a moment of quiet.
In a world full of shortcuts, integrity has a quiet power. 🕊️
Protect your vision. Show up for every Monday.
Real light always shines from within. ✨”
Protect your vision. Show up for every Monday.
Real light always shines from within. ✨”
January 12, 2026 at 5:12 PM
In a world full of shortcuts, integrity has a quiet power. 🕊️
Protect your vision. Show up for every Monday.
Real light always shines from within. ✨”
Protect your vision. Show up for every Monday.
Real light always shines from within. ✨”
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
Treat your central bank like a third-world country, trade like a third-world country.
bsky.app/profile/apne...
bsky.app/profile/apne...
BREAKING: The Department of Justice subpoenas the Federal Reserve, says Chair Jerome Powell.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell says DOJ has subpoenaed central bank, threatens criminal indictment
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the Department of Justice has served the central bank with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over his testimony about the Fed’s building renovations.
bit.ly
January 12, 2026 at 1:25 AM
Treat your central bank like a third-world country, trade like a third-world country.
bsky.app/profile/apne...
bsky.app/profile/apne...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation”
It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
Good evening. On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testi
www.federalreserve.gov
January 12, 2026 at 12:39 AM
“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation”
It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
I'm on maternity leave, and OptimistiCallie is on a publishing hiatus.
But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁
www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...
But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁
www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...
December 23, 2025 at 5:19 PM
I'm on maternity leave, and OptimistiCallie is on a publishing hiatus.
But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁
www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...
But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁
www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
1/ I strongly endorse this op-ed by @marthagimbel.bsky.social of @budgetlab.bsky.social in @theargumentmag.bsky.social .
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
Don't get fancy with your labor market fixes for AI
AI could be unpredictable. Our labor market response to it shouldn't be.
open.substack.com
December 20, 2025 at 6:59 PM
1/ I strongly endorse this op-ed by @marthagimbel.bsky.social of @budgetlab.bsky.social in @theargumentmag.bsky.social .
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
The Beige Book says employment is contracting, ADP says employment is contracting, the BLS says unemployment is going up, continuing jobless claims are rising, and WARN notices are up. It's very clear what's going on in the labor market, but stocks are up so people brush it off.
December 3, 2025 at 1:34 PM
The Beige Book says employment is contracting, ADP says employment is contracting, the BLS says unemployment is going up, continuing jobless claims are rising, and WARN notices are up. It's very clear what's going on in the labor market, but stocks are up so people brush it off.
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
The unemployment rate moved higher in September, mainly because people permanently lost their jobs.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
November 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
The unemployment rate moved higher in September, mainly because people permanently lost their jobs.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🔭 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔭
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
November 17, 2025 at 6:05 PM
🔭 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔭
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
November 10, 2025 at 4:53 PM
🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
😵💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵💫
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
November 3, 2025 at 5:53 PM
😵💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵💫
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
Strange: the 2-year yield is up 12 basis points on the day, its biggest move higher on a Fed day since March 2008.
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
October 29, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Strange: the 2-year yield is up 12 basis points on the day, its biggest move higher on a Fed day since March 2008.
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
October 27, 2025 at 6:15 PM
MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
October 27, 2025 at 3:30 PM
🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
October 20, 2025 at 12:45 PM
🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
Two interesting stats:
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
October 16, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Two interesting stats:
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
October 13, 2025 at 1:17 PM
🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
October 6, 2025 at 1:49 PM
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
October 6, 2025 at 1:45 PM
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
The S&P 500's average year vs. its five best and worst years.
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
October 5, 2025 at 10:21 PM
The S&P 500's average year vs. its five best and worst years.
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe