Ed Hill
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Ed Hill
@edmhill.bsky.social
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Researcher in mathematical epidemiology & infectious disease modelling.

Affiliations: Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL) @livunichil.bsky.social, @thepandemicinst.bsky.social, @livuni-phps.bsky.social‬, @livuni-iph.bsky.social, @liverpooluni.bsky.social.
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Adding on info for virus antigenic characterisation

🗓️ Between weeks 40 to 46 (29 Sep - 16 Nov 2025)

▶️ A(H1N1)pdm09: None antigenically characterised.

▶️ A(H3N2): Seven antigenically characterised. Six viruses antigenically distant (all K subclade).

▶️ B/Victoria: None antigenically characterised.
Antigenic characterisation. UKHSA RVU performs antigenic characterisation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B viruses using haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Data from these assays are used to compare how similar the currently circulating influenza viruses are to the strains included in seasonal influenza vaccines, and to monitor for changes in circulating influenza viruses. Similarity of currently circulating influenza strains to vaccine strains is defined as having an antibody titre within 4-fold when compared to reference viruses representative of the vaccine strain. - A(H1N1)pdm09: No A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses have been antigenically characterised since week 40 2025. - A(H3N2): Seven A(H3N2) viruses have been antigenically characterised and one was similar to reference viruses representative of the A/District of Columbia/27/2023 (H3N2)-like and A/Croatia/10136RV/2023 (H3N2)‑like Northern Hemisphere 2025/26 (H3N2) vaccine strains. The six viruses that were antigenically distant from the Northern Hemisphere 2025/26 vaccine strains belonged to the K subclade. - B/Victoria: No influenza B viruses have been antigenically characterised since week 40 2025.
November 23, 2025 at 7:23 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
And 🔗 to the associated report.

National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report: 20 November 2025 (week 47)
www.gov.uk/government/s...
National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report: 20 November 2025 (week 47)
www.gov.uk
November 23, 2025 at 7:05 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
Similar statistics for England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

🗓️ Between weeks 40 to 46 (29 Sep - 16 Nov 2025)

🧬 UKHSA respiratory virus unit has genetically characterised 290 seasonal influenza viruses

▶️ Most flu A (287/290)
▶️ ~78% of the flu A is H3N2 (224/287)
▶️ Of analysed H3N2 viruses, ~92% subclade K (206/224)
Genetic characterisation. Between week 40 2025 (week ending 5 October 2025) and week 46 2025 (week ending 16 November 2025), the UKHSA respiratory virus unit (RVU) has genetically characterised 290 seasonal influenza viruses, and identified 224 influenza A(H3N2) viruses, 63 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, and 3 influenza B viruses. Details of the characterised viruses by subtype are shown in tables 1, 2 and 3. The RVU has confirmed by genome sequencing the detection of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) viruses in three influenza A positive samples collected from children aged between 2 and 16 years of age. Table 2. Number of influenza A(H3N2) viruses characterised by genetic analysis at the UKHSA Respiratory Virus Unit since week 40 2025 Clade: 2a.3a.1 Subclade: J.2 Detections: 7 Subclade: J.2.4 Detections: 10 Subclade: K (J.2.4.1) Detections: 206 Subclade: J.2.5 Detections: 1 Antigenic characterisation. UKHSA RVU performs antigenic characterisation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B viruses using haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Data from these assays are used to compare how similar the currently circulating influenza viruses are to the strains included in seasonal influenza vaccines, and to monitor for changes in circulating influenza viruses. Similarity of currently circulating influenza strains to vaccine strains is defined as having an antibody titre within 4-fold when compared to reference viruses representative of the vaccine strain. - A(H1N1)pdm09: No A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses have been antigenically characterised since week 40 2025. - A(H3N2): Seven A(H3N2) viruses have been antigenically characterised and one was similar to reference viruses representative of the A/District of Columbia/27/2023 (H3N2)-like and A/Croatia/10136RV/2023 (H3N2)‑like Northern Hemisphere 2025/26 (H3N2) vaccine strains. The six viruses that were antigenically distant from the Northern Hemisphere 2025/26 vaccine strains belonged to the K subclade. - B/Victoria: No influenza B viruses have been antigenically characterised since week 40 2025.
November 23, 2025 at 7:02 PM
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Daily percentage of tests positive for influenza among all reported influenza tests in England, parallels with the 'late' season of 2023/24 having an initial peak & drop-off (aligned with schools on term break + end of year)

For 2025/26, recent drop aligns with half-term break for many schools.
November 21, 2025 at 12:10 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
5/ Resources

Report 🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

National flu & COVID-19 surveillance data: 20 November 2025 (week 47)

🔗: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691df3...

National flu & COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season repository

🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

/end
National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season
National influenza (flu) and COVID-19 report, monitoring COVID-19 activity, seasonal flu and other seasonal respiratory illnesses.
www.gov.uk
November 20, 2025 at 5:03 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
4/ Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients: 2- & 3-year-old children

📊 Data up to end of week 46 2025 (16 Nov 2025), from 99.2% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake data

▶️ 38.5% in all 2 year olds
▶️ 38.8% in all 3 year olds

💉 Uptake vs equivalent week in 2024/25: ⬆️
Influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients Weekly vaccine uptake data is provisional. Influenza vaccination is reported by GP practice through the ImmForm website. ImmForm provides a secure online platform for vaccine uptake data collection for several immunisation surveys, including the seasonal influenza vaccine uptake collection. Details can be found at sources of surveillance data for influenza, COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sources-of-surveillance-data-for-influenza-covid-19-and-other-respiratory-viruses#vaccine-uptake For the 2025 to 2026 season’s vaccination programme, as in previous seasons children and pregnant women have been eligible since 1 September. For this current season and the previous season (2025 to 2026 and 2024 to 2025 seasons respectively), adult groups (excluding pregnant women) were eligible from the start of October (01 October 2025 and 03 October 2024 respectively), rather than 1 September as in previous seasons. See the Timing section of the annual flu letter for more information: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flu-immunisation-programme-plan-2025-to-2026 Up to the end of week 46 of 2025 (Sunday 16 November 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows: Children (99.2% of GP practices reporting): - 38.5% of children aged 2 years - 38.8% in children aged 3 years Compared with the equivalent week last season (2024 to 2025), influenza vaccine uptake is higher for pregnant women, and those aged 2 and 3 years, and comparable for those aged 65 years and over and those aged under 65 years in clinical risk groups. Up to the end of week 46 of 2025 (Sunday 16 November 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows: Children (99.2% of GP practices reporting): - 38.5% of children aged 2 years - 38.8% in children aged 3 years Compared with the equivalent week last season (2024 to 2025), influenza vaccine uptake is higher for pregnant women, and those aged 2 and 3 years, and comparable for those aged 65 years and over and those aged under 65 years in clinical risk groups.
November 20, 2025 at 5:03 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
3/ Vaccine uptake in GP patients

💉 Provisional data up to 16 Nov 2025 from 99.2% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake

▶️ 65+ years: 67.8% (↔️ vs equivalent week in 2024/2025)
▶️ Under 65 years in clinical risk group: 33.5% (↔️ vs equiv wk 24/25)
▶️ Pregnant women: 32.8% (⬆️ vs equiv wk 24/25)
Influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients. Weekly vaccine uptake data is provisional. Influenza vaccination is reported by GP practice through the ImmForm website. ImmForm provides a secure online platform for vaccine uptake data collection for several immunisation surveys, including the seasonal influenza vaccine uptake collection. Details can be found at sources of surveillance data for influenza, COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sources-of-surveillance-data-for-influenza-covid-19-and-other-respiratory-viruses#vaccine-uptake For the 2025 to 2026 season’s vaccination programme, as in previous seasons children and pregnant women have been eligible since 1 September. For this current season and the previous season (2025 to 2026 and 2024 to 2025 seasons respectively), adult groups (excluding pregnant women) were eligible from the start of October (01 October 2025 and 03 October 2024 respectively), rather than 1 September as in previous seasons. See the Timing section of the annual flu letter for more information: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flu-immunisation-programme-plan-2025-to-2026 Up to the end of week 46 of 2025 (Sunday 16 November 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows: Adults (99.2% of GP practices reporting through Immform): - 33.5% in those aged under 65 years in a clinical risk group - 32.8% in all pregnant women - 67.8% in all those aged over 65 years Compared with the equivalent week last season (2024 to 2025), influenza vaccine uptake is higher for pregnant women, and those aged 2 and 3 years, and comparable for those aged 65 years and over and those aged under 65 years in clinical risk groups. Up to the end of week 46 of 2025 (Sunday 16 November 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows: Adults (99.2% of GP practices reporting through Immform): - 33.5% in those aged under 65 years in a clinical risk group - 32.8% in all pregnant women - 67.8% in all those aged over 65 years Compared with the equivalent week last season (2024 to 2025), influenza vaccine uptake is higher for pregnant women, and those aged 2 and 3 years, and comparable for those aged 65 years and over and those aged under 65 years in clinical risk groups.
November 20, 2025 at 5:03 PM
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2/ Influenza activity level (AL) indicators

🔬 Lab surveillance influenza positivity: ↘️ (AL: Low)

🥼 Influenza-like illnesses GP consultations: ↔️ (AL: Baseline)

🧬 GP swabbing positivity: ⬆️ (AL: Medium)

🏥 Hospital admissions: ↘️ (AL: Low)

🚑 ICU admissions: ⬇️ (AL: Baseline)
Influenza activity showed mixed trends and is circulating at low levels. This is an unusually early start of the influenza season. Circulation remained high in children and young adults. Emergency department (ED) attendances for influenza-like-illness (ILI) increased. The number of influenza-confirmed acute respiratory infection (ARI) incidents decreased. Of influenza viruses subtyped at the UKHSA Respiratory Virus Unit, the majority were A(H3N2). Compared with the equivalent week last season (2024 to 2025), influenza vaccine uptake is higher for pregnant women, and those aged 2 and 3 years, and comparable for those aged 65 years and over and those aged under 65 years in clinical risk groups. Indicator: Laboratory surveillance Trend: Decreased slightly Level: Low Data: Influenza positivity decreased slightly with a weekly mean positivity rate of 11.1% compared with 11.7% in the previous week/ Indicator: Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) General Practice (GP) consultations Trend: Stable Level: Baseline Data: The weekly ILI consultation rate remained stable at 7.4 per 100,000 registered population in participating GP practices compared with 7.1 per 100,000 in the previous week/ Indicator: GP swabbing positivity Trend: Increasing Level: Medium Data: In week 46, among all tested samples, 25% were positive for influenza, compared with 14.2% in the previous week. Indicator: Hospital admissions Trend: Slightly decreasing Level: Low Data: The overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza hospitalisations was slightly decreasing at 3.37 per 100,000 compared with 3.68 per 100,000 in the previous week. Indicator: ICU/HDU admissions Trend: Decreasing Level: Baseline Data: The overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza ICU-HDU was decreasing at 0.10 per 100,000 compared with 0.11 per 100,000 in the previous week. This rate was on the border between baseline and low impact range. Laboratory-confirmed influenza cases The Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) captures test result information for notifiable infectious diseases, including COVID-19 and influenza, from laboratories in England. The unified sample dataset (USD), used to calculate the percentage tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 among all SARS-CoV-2 tests, stores all SARS-CoV-2 test results reported to SGSS, Respiratory DataMart, and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) laboratories. As of 18 November 2025, influenza positivity in week 46 decreased slightly with a weekly average positivity rate of 11.1% compared with 11.7% in the previous week. Influenza positivity rates were highest in those aged between 5 and 14 years at a weekly average positivity rate of 31.7%. This has increased from 27.1% among those aged between 5 and 14 years in week 45. Influenza hospital admissions Surveillance of influenza hospitalisations to all levels of care is based on data from a small sentinel network of acute NHS trusts in England. Please note that SARI Watch data is provisional and subject to retrospective updates. Rates are presented per 100,000 trust catchment population. Influenza hospitalisations to all levels of care in week 46 2025 based on 26 sentinel NHS trusts in England were as follows: - the overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza hospitalisations was slightly decreasing at 3.37 per 100,000 compared with 3.68 per 100,000 in the previous week - this rate is in the low impact range (1.95 to less than 6.88 per 100,000) - hospital admission rates for influenza were highest in those aged 85 years and over (11.90 per 100,000). Please refer to the respiratory virus section of the data dashboard for regional breakdowns: https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/respiratory-viruses/influenza - there were 397 new hospital admissions for influenza (350 influenza A(not subtyped), 9 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 34 influenza A(H3N2), and 4 influenza B) Influenza ICU or HDU admissions Surveillance of admissions to ICU or HDU for influenza is mandatory with data required from all acute NHS trusts in England. Please note that SARI Watch data is provisional and subject to retrospective updates. Rates are presented per 100,000 trust catchment population. Influenza ICU-HDU admissions in week 46 2025 based on 101 NHS trusts in England were as follows: - the overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza ICU-HDU was decreasing at 0.10 per 100,000 compared with 0.11 per 100,000 in the previous week - this rate is in the baseline impact range (less than 0.1 per 100,000) - please refer to the respiratory virus section of the data dashboard for regional breakdowns: https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/respiratory-viruses/influenza - there were 45 new ICU or HDU admissions for influenza (38 influenza A(not subtyped), 4 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 3 influenza A(H3N2), and 0 influenza B)
November 20, 2025 at 5:01 PM
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4/ IDD community resources continued

📝 IDD training: Build expertise in IDD through training programmes around the world.

👥 IDD diversity/equity/inclusion: Resources for advancing diversity, equity & inclusion in our field.

👉 Available at: www.gsidd.org/resources

/end
Resources | GSIDD
www.gsidd.org
November 19, 2025 at 6:24 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
3/ IDD community resources

🤝 IDD organisation landscape: Organisations advancing infectious disease dynamics.

💼 IDD jobs: Connecting talented researchers & practitioners with positions worldwide.

🎤 IDD seminars: Showcase breadth & depth of our field while fostering new collaborations.
Resources | GSIDD
www.gsidd.org
November 19, 2025 at 6:24 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
2/ GSIDD development plans

💬 Mission: Promote collaboration, drive innovation, advance education & advocate for field’s impact on health policy + practice.

🗓️ Official launch planned for Feb 2026.

📧 Open to the IDD community - researchers, practitioners, educators, students.

Register interest👇
Join Us | GSIDD
gsidd.org
November 19, 2025 at 6:24 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
6/ The repository of outbreak assessment documents (from Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs + Animal & Plant Health Agency) for HPAI in Great Britain and Europe.

🔗: www.gov.uk/government/p...

/end
Avian influenza (bird flu) in Europe, Russia and the UK
Preliminary and updated outbreak assessments for avian influenza (bird flu) in Europe, Russia and the UK.
www.gov.uk
November 18, 2025 at 11:12 PM
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5/ HPAI risk levels in Great Britain

▶️ Wild birds: VERY HIGH (occurs almost certainly)

▶️ Poultry exposure risk (biosecurity suboptimal): ⬆️ to VERY HIGH (occurs almost certainly) w/ low uncertainty

▶️ Poultry exposure risk (stringent biosecurity): ⬆️ to MEDIUM (occurs regularly) w/ high uncertainty
Conclusion Since our previous assessment on 28 October 2025 (High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) in Great Britain and Europe: updated outbreak assessment 2), cases of HPAI H5Nx in Great Britain have increased almost exponentially in wild birds week on week with almost 80 cases in week 45 up from 40 in week 43. Therefore, the national risk level for HPAI H5 in wild birds in Great Britain is maintained at VERY HIGH (occurs almost certainly). The risks to poultry both in Great Britain and Europe are increasing. Since our previous assessment on the 28 October 2025 there have been another 24 new IPs in Great Britain. The risk of infection of poultry in Great Britain with suboptimal biosecurity is therefore increased to VERY HIGH (occurs almost certainly) with low uncertainty. The increasing wild bird infection pressure undoubtedly filters through to poultry and will inevitably put pressure even on those premises with stringent biosecurity. The risk to poultry with stringent biosecurity is therefore increased from low to MEDIUM (occurs regularly) and the uncertainty is maintained at high. We are continuing to closely monitor the situation in Europe and to review the risk. It is important that stringent adherence to good biosecurity practices is maintained.
November 18, 2025 at 11:12 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
4/ HPAI H5 in poultry & wild birds in Europe

🗓️ Between 28 Oct – 10 Nov 2025 reported by The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH).

▶️ 841 HPAI H5 event reports (67 from poultry; 774 from wild birds)

📊 Positive reports doubled from 214 in week 43 2025 to 418 in week 44 2025
Europe Between 28 October 2025 and 10 November 2025 there were a total of 841 HPAI H5 events in domestic poultry, captive birds and non-poultry including wild birds across Europe reported by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH). Of these reports on WOAH, 774 were in wild birds and 67 were poultry outbreaks. Positive reports according to data from IZSVe (2025) almost doubled from 214 in week 43 to 418 in week 44 as shown in Figure 2. This increase is virtually all due to the number of wild bird cases increasing, which may be influenced to some extent by the large number of cases in common cranes in Germany and France. So far in week 45, there have been 447 positive reports in Europe, again mainly in wild birds. The number and density of reports across northern Germany, Denmark, Belgium, north-east France and the Netherlands is remarkable, although there are now far fewer reports in eastern and southern Europe and only two reports in the Iberian Peninsula. Wild bird species reported include migratory ducks and geese, mute swans, raptors and pheasants and a total of 466 common cranes (393 in Germany, 64 in France, 5 in Belgium, 2 in Denmark and 2 in Poland. In addtion to 393 cases in common cranes, Germany has reported 153 wild bird cases in geese and 7 cases in gulls. In France, mass mortalities have been detected in migrating cranes along the migration corridor from the north-east to the south-west. Figure: Weekly numbers of HPAI H5 positive reports in Europe according to data from IZSVe (2025) to 13 November 2025. The figure shows levels doubling in early October to 55 in week 42 and then a four-fold increase to 214 in week 43 and doubling again to almost 418 in week 44 with 447 so far in week 45. The proportion of wild bird cases in grey increases more rapidly than the proportion of poultry outbreaks in red and purple as discussed in the text. It should be noted there will be more reports to follow for week 46.
November 18, 2025 at 11:12 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
3/ Wild birds in Great Britain: HPAI situation assessment

🔎 Data based on passive surveillance of found dead birds

💬 During 28 Oct – 11 Nov 2025, HPAI H5 detected in 133 found-dead wild birds, in 23 species, across 38 counties.

Detected cases by nation
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: 121
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland: 5
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales: 7
Wild birds Between 28 October 2025 and 11 November (based on laboratory testing date), HPAI H5 has been detected in 133 found-dead wild birds, including 23 wild bird species (data available https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-in-wild-birds ), across 38 counties. Wild bird cases since 28 October have been reported at mainly inland locations across Great Britain. The majority of the findings were in England (121), with 7 in Wales and 5 in Scotland (based on laboratory testing date). It should be noted that there is a variable lag period between the collection of found-dead wild birds to sampling, testing, and the reporting of results. It is important to note that these surveillance figures for Great Britain are based on passive surveillance of found dead birds reported to Defra by the general public and as such, may be affected by several factors including frequency of visitors accessing areas with bird populations, the potential for immunity in the wild bird population (which may result in fewer birds developing clinical disease and or dying with HPAI), variable surveillance system sensitivity, as well as the size, location and accessibility of carcasses, meaning that this wild bird surveillance does not necessarily capture all of the cases that occur. We will continue to monitor the situation closely. Figure: Detections of HPAI H5 positive found-dead wild birds in Great Britain since 28 September to 11 November 2025 per week (based on test date).
November 18, 2025 at 11:08 PM
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2/ UK domestic poultry: HPAI situation assessment

💬 Since last outbreak assessment on 28 October 2025 (to 11 November 2025) there have been 24 Infected Premises (IPs) confirmed with HPAI H5N1 in poultry

🐔 IP by nation: 20 in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, 4 in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿.

📊 Mixture of backyard & commercial premises housing poultry.
Situation assessment Here, an HPAI H5Nx event refers to a report of HPAI in poultry, or a location with at least one HPAI H5Nx positive wild bird. Individual HPAI H5Nx positive wild birds are referred to as cases. United Kingdom Poultry Infected Premises Since our last outbreak assessment on 28 October 2025 (to 11 November 2025) there have been 24 Infected Premises (IPs) confirmed with HPAI H5N1 in poultry. Of these, 20 occurred in England and 4 in Wales. These have been reported in a mixture of backyard and commercial premises housing poultry, as single species and backyard flocks of mixed species. All recent IPs in Great Britain have been genotyped as DI.2. As of 00.01 on 6 November 2025, a mandatory housing order to cover the whole of England was introduced for poultry flocks of more than 50 birds or those that sell or give away eggs or poultry products (National Housing Order declared to protect poultry from Avian Influenza - GOV.UK; https://www.gov.uk/government/news/national-housing-order-declared-to-protect-poultry-from-avian-influenza). From 00:01 13 November, mandatory housing measures will be introduced in Wales. This will be a legal requirement for all keepers of 50 or more birds of any species and those with flocks of less than 50 birds if eggs or poultry products are sold or given away. Additional measures are being introduced for gamebirds. An Avian Influenza Prevention Zone (AIPZ) remains in place across Scotland (https://www.gov.scot/publications/avian-influenza-outbreaks/). An AIPZ was introduced in Northern Ireland from 00:01 on Saturday 1 November 2025. Following 2 confirmations of HPAI H5N1 in County Tyrone and County Fermanagh, mandatory housing measures (https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/articles/avian-influenza-prevention-zone-aipz) for all kept birds and poultry came in to force in Northern Ireland from 00:01 6 November. There is also a ban on Galliforme and Anseriforme gatherings.
November 18, 2025 at 11:06 PM