Eitvydas Bajarūnas
@ebajarunas.bsky.social
LT Ambassador/@CEPA Visiting Fellow. Fmr 🇱🇹 Amb to 🇬🇧 🇴🇲 🇵🇹 🇷🇺🇺🇿🇸🇪, Dep Amb to NATO, MFA Political Director, etc. Alumni @KingsCollegeLon @defacuk
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Belarus has targeted Lithuania with another barrage of balloons to disrupt its airspace. @ebajarunas.bsky.social explains that to counter the Kremlin's shadow warfare and hybrid tactics, "deterrence must be proactive and tailored to specific vulnerabilities."
The Hybrid Threat Imperative: Deterring Russia Before it is Too Late
Western resilience alone will not stop Russia's hybrid threats; allies should pair deterrence-by-denial with deterrence-by-punishment.
cepa.org
December 10, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Belarus has targeted Lithuania with another barrage of balloons to disrupt its airspace. @ebajarunas.bsky.social explains that to counter the Kremlin's shadow warfare and hybrid tactics, "deterrence must be proactive and tailored to specific vulnerabilities."
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Russia’s shadow warfare tries to exploit democratic openness, fracture alliances, and erode public trust in institutions. @ebajarunas.bsky.social explores how the West can formulate a coordinated deterrence strategy.
The Hybrid Threat Imperative: Deterring Russia Before it is Too Late
Western resilience alone will not stop Russia's hybrid threats; allies should pair deterrence-by-denial with deterrence-by-punishment.
cepa.org
December 5, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Russia’s shadow warfare tries to exploit democratic openness, fracture alliances, and erode public trust in institutions. @ebajarunas.bsky.social explores how the West can formulate a coordinated deterrence strategy.
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Read the full report by @ebajarunas.bsky.social to learn more about what makes an effective deterrence-by-denial and deterrence-by-punishment strategy.
The Hybrid Threat Imperative: Deterring Russia Before it is Too Late
Western resilience alone will not stop Russia's hybrid threats; allies should pair deterrence-by-denial with deterrence-by-punishment.
cepa.org
December 5, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Read the full report by @ebajarunas.bsky.social to learn more about what makes an effective deterrence-by-denial and deterrence-by-punishment strategy.
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
"[Smuggler balloons are] part of Russia's — and involving Belarus's — hybrid warfare campaign against both countries, Central Europe, and the rest of Europe." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
https://theworld.org/segments/2025/10/30/lithuania-taking-action-to-prevent-smuggler-balloons-from-belarus
https://theworld.org/segments/2025/10/30/lithuania-taking-action-to-prevent-smuggler-balloons-from-belarus
Lithuania taking action to prevent smuggler balloons from Belarus - The World from PRX
Weather balloons carrying boxes of smuggled cigarettes have been disrupting flights in Lithuania. The situation has escalated dramatically over the past week, and the government in Vilnius has announced plans to close Lithuania's border with Belarus. Th...
theworld.org
November 16, 2025 at 7:44 PM
"[Smuggler balloons are] part of Russia's — and involving Belarus's — hybrid warfare campaign against both countries, Central Europe, and the rest of Europe." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
https://theworld.org/segments/2025/10/30/lithuania-taking-action-to-prevent-smuggler-balloons-from-belarus
https://theworld.org/segments/2025/10/30/lithuania-taking-action-to-prevent-smuggler-balloons-from-belarus
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
"Drone incursions have sparked growing concern across the Baltic States as Moscow and Minsk prepare for military exercises." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Flight Risk: Baltics Scramble to Counter Hybrid Drone Threat
Drone incursions have sparked growing concern across the Baltic States as Moscow and Minsk prepare for military exercises.
cepa.org
September 10, 2025 at 1:41 PM
"Drone incursions have sparked growing concern across the Baltic States as Moscow and Minsk prepare for military exercises." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Willing nations should send troops to fight with Ukraine against Russia, with or without NATO. @ebajarunas.bsky.social @cepa.org @anderseide.bsky.social @andrewramsaygray.bsky.social @germanambusa.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social @acwlapsley.bsky.social
edsolomon.substack.com/p/a-proposal...
edsolomon.substack.com/p/a-proposal...
A proposal to end Russia's war against Ukraine
NATO should invoke Article 12 of the North Atlantic Treaty to amend the Treaty. Allow new members with a majority vote. Invite Ukraine to join.
edsolomon.substack.com
March 1, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Willing nations should send troops to fight with Ukraine against Russia, with or without NATO. @ebajarunas.bsky.social @cepa.org @anderseide.bsky.social @andrewramsaygray.bsky.social @germanambusa.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social @acwlapsley.bsky.social
edsolomon.substack.com/p/a-proposal...
edsolomon.substack.com/p/a-proposal...
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
"The Baltic states have had the US as a steadfast ally since the end of Cold War but may now have to build regional defenses as Washington turns away." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
The Baltics Adapt to Trump
The Baltic states have had the US as a steadfast ally since the end of Cold War but may now have to build regional defenses.
buff.ly
March 16, 2025 at 11:00 AM
"The Baltic states have had the US as a steadfast ally since the end of Cold War but may now have to build regional defenses as Washington turns away." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
“If Beijing supports a ceasefire agreement, it may pressure Russia to comply.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Ukraine Ceasefire Deal — What Does it Mean?
CEPA Fellows explain the US-Ukraine agreement on a ceasefire. The Trump administration says, “the ball is in Moscow’s court.”
cepa.org
March 16, 2025 at 9:30 PM
“If Beijing supports a ceasefire agreement, it may pressure Russia to comply.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
“A key factor may be China, Russia's main trading ally, which if it supports the US ceasefire proposal, may put pressure on Putin to comply.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Putin ramping up troops on border for new attack: Zelensky
Russia is planning to strike in Ukraine's Sumy region, the Ukrainian president wrote on Saturday in an X post.
www.newsweek.com
March 18, 2025 at 12:30 PM
“A key factor may be China, Russia's main trading ally, which if it supports the US ceasefire proposal, may put pressure on Putin to comply.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
The so-called [Nordic-Baltic 8] group also must play an active role in shaping the EU defense agenda, ensuring European tools complement, rather than replace, NATO efforts.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Europe’s Vital Nordic-Baltic Shield
There is much to do if Europe wants to deter war, and much of that will depend on the countries in the continent’s northeast.
buff.ly
April 5, 2025 at 12:30 PM
The so-called [Nordic-Baltic 8] group also must play an active role in shaping the EU defense agenda, ensuring European tools complement, rather than replace, NATO efforts.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
"Russia’s shadow fleet plays a crucial role for oil export earnings because of its central role in sanctions avoidance." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic
Efforts to shut down the shadow fleet have taken on greater urgency after attacks on NATO members’ critical infrastructure.
cepa.org
May 15, 2025 at 7:51 PM
"Russia’s shadow fleet plays a crucial role for oil export earnings because of its central role in sanctions avoidance." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
"Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Tactics Target the Baltics" by
@ebajarunas.bsky.social
Published in Jamestown Perspectives: jamestown.org/program/russ...
#JamestownFoundation #JamestownPerspectives
@ebajarunas.bsky.social
Published in Jamestown Perspectives: jamestown.org/program/russ...
#JamestownFoundation #JamestownPerspectives
Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Tactics Target the Baltics
We are publishing this piece because Ambassador Eitvydas Bajarūnas has a wide range of governmental experiences that give him unique insight into modern political warfare. Among his many overseas post...
jamestown.org
May 28, 2025 at 6:42 PM
"Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Tactics Target the Baltics" by
@ebajarunas.bsky.social
Published in Jamestown Perspectives: jamestown.org/program/russ...
#JamestownFoundation #JamestownPerspectives
@ebajarunas.bsky.social
Published in Jamestown Perspectives: jamestown.org/program/russ...
#JamestownFoundation #JamestownPerspectives
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
"Russia is prepared for a prolonged war and is currently not thinking about peace." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
‘There we go again’ — For war-weary Europe, Trump-Putin call yet another signal to ‘wake up’
After a two-hour call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia reiterated its refusal for a full ceasefire in the war in Ukraine while the U.S. once again…
kyivindependent.com
May 31, 2025 at 2:01 PM
"Russia is prepared for a prolonged war and is currently not thinking about peace." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
"A more assertive policy is crucial to addressing the shadow fleet, particularly in the Baltic Sea, as the region cannot afford to delay." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic
Efforts to shut down the shadow fleet have taken on greater urgency after attacks on NATO members’ critical infrastructure.
buff.ly
January 19, 2025 at 12:00 AM
"A more assertive policy is crucial to addressing the shadow fleet, particularly in the Baltic Sea, as the region cannot afford to delay." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic | "Efforts to shut down the shadow fleet have taken on greater urgency after attacks on NATO members’ critical infrastructure. Here’s what’s needed." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic
Efforts to shut down the shadow fleet have taken on greater urgency after attacks on NATO members’ critical infrastructure.
cepa.org
January 15, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic | "Efforts to shut down the shadow fleet have taken on greater urgency after attacks on NATO members’ critical infrastructure. Here’s what’s needed." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Today, CEPA is excited to launch a landmark, expert-driven initiative to combat Russian hybrid attacks against the transatlantic alliance.
Countering Russia’s Shadow War
cepa.org
January 14, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Today, CEPA is excited to launch a landmark, expert-driven initiative to combat Russian hybrid attacks against the transatlantic alliance.
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
To repel Russian attacks, the West must take action that is “sufficiently devastating to make Russian eyes water and deter future misbehavior.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social
buff.ly
January 5, 2025 at 12:19 AM
To repel Russian attacks, the West must take action that is “sufficiently devastating to make Russian eyes water and deter future misbehavior.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Lithuanian newly appointed Prime Minister Gintaras Paluckas is paying his first visit to Ukraine today and says he feels “privilege and honour”. The Prime Minister is accompanied by almost the entire cabinet.
www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e...
www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e...
Lithuanian PM says he feels ‘privilege and honour’ during first Kyiv visit
Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas is paying his first visit to Ukraine on Friday and says he feels “privilege...
www.lrt.lt
December 20, 2024 at 9:44 PM
Lithuanian newly appointed Prime Minister Gintaras Paluckas is paying his first visit to Ukraine today and says he feels “privilege and honour”. The Prime Minister is accompanied by almost the entire cabinet.
www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e...
www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e...
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
“We need deterrence by punishment,” @ebajarunas.bsky.social discusses the Western response to Russian hybrid warfare. “We are at war, and the first thing we need is to recognize we are at war.”
buff.ly
December 16, 2024 at 6:09 PM
“We need deterrence by punishment,” @ebajarunas.bsky.social discusses the Western response to Russian hybrid warfare. “We are at war, and the first thing we need is to recognize we are at war.”
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
"The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a model for tackling hybrid threats." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats
The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a new model for tackling hybrid threats.
buff.ly
December 14, 2024 at 6:00 PM
"The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a model for tackling hybrid threats." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
"The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a model for tackling hybrid threats." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats
The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a new model for tackling hybrid threats.
buff.ly
December 13, 2024 at 6:00 PM
"The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a model for tackling hybrid threats." @ebajarunas.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Today, Kęstutis Budrys assumes office as the Foreign Minister of #Lithuania. "We will actively work with allies and partners to achieve stability and democracy in Europe and its neighbourhood. Lithuania's voice in the world will remain loud and clear," states FM Budrys.
December 12, 2024 at 12:47 PM
Today, Kęstutis Budrys assumes office as the Foreign Minister of #Lithuania. "We will actively work with allies and partners to achieve stability and democracy in Europe and its neighbourhood. Lithuania's voice in the world will remain loud and clear," states FM Budrys.
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Someone Else’s Fault — Kremlin Propagandists Explain Syrian Collapse | "As Syria’s fleeing dictator arrived in Moscow, the state’s mouthpieces battled to shield Putin from any blame." @juliadavisnews.bsky.social
Someone Else’s Fault — Kremlin Propagandists Explain Syrian Collapse
As Syria’s fleeing dictator, Bashar al-Assad, arrived in Moscow, the state’s mouthpieces battled to shield Putin from any blame.
cepa.org
December 9, 2024 at 4:27 PM
Someone Else’s Fault — Kremlin Propagandists Explain Syrian Collapse | "As Syria’s fleeing dictator arrived in Moscow, the state’s mouthpieces battled to shield Putin from any blame." @juliadavisnews.bsky.social
Reposted by Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats | "The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a model for tackling hybrid threats." Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats
The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a new model for tackling hybrid threats.
cepa.org
December 9, 2024 at 8:03 PM
Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats | "The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a model for tackling hybrid threats." Eitvydas Bajarūnas
Democracy must and can defend itself, especially against external influences: Romanian court cancels presidential election amid Russian influence fears.
#hybdirthreats
www.politico.eu/article/roma...
#hybdirthreats
www.politico.eu/article/roma...
Romanian court cancels presidential election amid Russian influence fears
Constitutional court throws Romanian politics into turmoil, 2 days before runoff vote was due to take place.
www.politico.eu
December 6, 2024 at 2:33 PM
Democracy must and can defend itself, especially against external influences: Romanian court cancels presidential election amid Russian influence fears.
#hybdirthreats
www.politico.eu/article/roma...
#hybdirthreats
www.politico.eu/article/roma...