Georgi Engelbrecht
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duriandiaries.bsky.social
Georgi Engelbrecht
@duriandiaries.bsky.social
Senior Analyst @CrisisGroup. Posts on Philippines, Peace Processes+Deterrence and Durians.
Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.
October 15, 2025 at 8:51 AM
7. Funding, procurement procedures and the force structure remain other critical parts of the equation for modernisation.

Maximising defence partnerships, and working on the nuts and bolts of establishing a truly joint force, remain key tasks as well.
August 14, 2025 at 11:43 AM
6. There are still gaps: It is not easy to develop a strategic culture that moves from land-based threat perceptions to a more maritime approach and a strategy that both looks at the South China Sea and the northern Philippines as critical theatres.
August 14, 2025 at 11:42 AM
4. The modernisation effort is unfolding amid growing tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea; worries about a confrontation between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; shifting geopolitics; and uncertainty surrounding the second Trump administration’s policies.
August 14, 2025 at 11:39 AM
3. Manila is increasing its defence acquisitions, augmenting its military partnerships and deepening its alliance with Washington.

It tries to balance the “hardware” of new equipment with the “software” of thinking beyond jungle warfare/counterterrorism towards coastal defence.
August 14, 2025 at 11:38 AM
2. The shift is still a work in progress.

But under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the Philippines is modernising its military capabilities and accelerating efforts to change gear from counterinsurgency to territorial and external defence.
August 14, 2025 at 11:36 AM
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.

But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
August 14, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Everyday legacies of the Pacific War.

Santa Mesa, Manila.
May 24, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Election Day in the Philippines arrived.

All eyes on the Bangsamoro region.
May 12, 2025 at 12:53 AM
On the ground in the Bangsamoro region in the Philippines to see how the local and midterm elections in the region shape national politics and the peace process.
May 10, 2025 at 5:18 AM
The events of 11 March still occupy the Philippines.

After former president Duterte's arrest, some thoughts for G-Zero:

www.gzeromedia.com/news/watchin...

More recently, I talked on a podcast about this and other topics relating to the Philippines. Tune In!

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a...
April 2, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Zeitgeist in Manila.
February 3, 2025 at 5:34 AM
1/9 On 23 November, the Philippine government and the National Democratic Front signed a joint statement in Norway.

Both sides commit to peacefully resolve the decade-long armed conflict between Manila and communist rebels.

What are some points to consider at this stage?

THREAD
December 1, 2023 at 11:30 AM
Throwback:

The Philippine town of Marawi in 2018, months after the months-long siege in the Islamic City came to an end.
September 25, 2023 at 4:22 PM
August 22, 2023 at 11:53 PM
Throwback: Southern Palawan, 2014.
August 15, 2023 at 7:46 AM