Dr. Jeff Masters
@drjeffmasters.bsky.social
Extreme weather and climate change expert writing for Yale Climate Connections. Co-founder, Weather Underground; former hurricane hunter.
Fung-wong the 4th major landfalling typhoon of 2025:
Danas (Cat 3, Taiwan)
Ragasa (Cat 5, Panuitan Island, Philippines)
Kalmaegi (Cat 3, Vietnam)
Fung-wong (Cat 3, Philippines)
No long-term trend since 1946, but the 2004-2025 period has seen a lot (4.2/y) vs. the previous 22-year period (2.6/y).
Danas (Cat 3, Taiwan)
Ragasa (Cat 5, Panuitan Island, Philippines)
Kalmaegi (Cat 3, Vietnam)
Fung-wong (Cat 3, Philippines)
No long-term trend since 1946, but the 2004-2025 period has seen a lot (4.2/y) vs. the previous 22-year period (2.6/y).
November 10, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Fung-wong the 4th major landfalling typhoon of 2025:
Danas (Cat 3, Taiwan)
Ragasa (Cat 5, Panuitan Island, Philippines)
Kalmaegi (Cat 3, Vietnam)
Fung-wong (Cat 3, Philippines)
No long-term trend since 1946, but the 2004-2025 period has seen a lot (4.2/y) vs. the previous 22-year period (2.6/y).
Danas (Cat 3, Taiwan)
Ragasa (Cat 5, Panuitan Island, Philippines)
Kalmaegi (Cat 3, Vietnam)
Fung-wong (Cat 3, Philippines)
No long-term trend since 1946, but the 2004-2025 period has seen a lot (4.2/y) vs. the previous 22-year period (2.6/y).
I did a 12-minute interview last week with Radio Ecoshock on Hurricane Melissa, and the future of extreme hurricanes:
www.ecoshock.org/2025/11/thou...
www.ecoshock.org/2025/11/thou...
Thousand Year Storms – RADIO ECOSHOCK
www.ecoshock.org
November 10, 2025 at 4:16 PM
I did a 12-minute interview last week with Radio Ecoshock on Hurricane Melissa, and the future of extreme hurricanes:
www.ecoshock.org/2025/11/thou...
www.ecoshock.org/2025/11/thou...
Despite the lack of a planet-warming El Niño event this year, 2025 has been the 2nd-warmest year on record for the year-to-date period, and is on track to end up as the 2nd- or 3rd-warmest year on record, behind only the El Niño-warmed years of 2024 and 2023:
October 2025 was the planet's third-warmest October on record » Yale Climate Connections
Only October 2023 and October 2024 were warmer.
yaleclimateconnections.org
November 10, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Despite the lack of a planet-warming El Niño event this year, 2025 has been the 2nd-warmest year on record for the year-to-date period, and is on track to end up as the 2nd- or 3rd-warmest year on record, behind only the El Niño-warmed years of 2024 and 2023:
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Arizona has paused development of hundreds of thousands of homes on the far Phoenix fringes due to insufficient groundwater supplies, @highcountrynews.org finds: www.hcn.org/issues/57-10...
The dried-out subdivisions of Phoenix - High Country News
A groundwater crisis halted the construction of thousands of homes and pitted affordability against environmental concerns.
www.hcn.org
November 10, 2025 at 5:25 AM
Arizona has paused development of hundreds of thousands of homes on the far Phoenix fringes due to insufficient groundwater supplies, @highcountrynews.org finds: www.hcn.org/issues/57-10...
“A 0.5% annual risk might sound pretty low. But it’s a key metric for running a large insurance business in the Northeast. Why isn’t at least that level of risk the planning lever for local governments in that region, driving building codes, land use decisions, and investment priorities?”
Insurers plan for 1-in-200-year storms. Why don’t governments?
If a Melissa-level hurricane hit the Northeast, would we be ready? New column looks at climate whiplash, risk, and what real preparedness means.
open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...
If a Melissa-level hurricane hit the Northeast, would we be ready? New column looks at climate whiplash, risk, and what real preparedness means.
open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...
Insurers plan for extreme events that could crater their solvency. Shouldn’t all levels of government do the same?
What if a storm like Melissa hit the northeast US?
open.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:20 PM
“A 0.5% annual risk might sound pretty low. But it’s a key metric for running a large insurance business in the Northeast. Why isn’t at least that level of risk the planning lever for local governments in that region, driving building codes, land use decisions, and investment priorities?”
Advice from @katharinehayhoe.com: "Dismissives cannot click a link that may contain factual and accurate information about climate science, impacts, or solutions. They are incapable of doing so because they are so afraid of the threat that the truth represents to their identity and/or ideology."
On Dealing with Climate Dismissives
by Katherine Hayhoe
climatecafe.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Advice from @katharinehayhoe.com: "Dismissives cannot click a link that may contain factual and accurate information about climate science, impacts, or solutions. They are incapable of doing so because they are so afraid of the threat that the truth represents to their identity and/or ideology."
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Fig 2 from our Year in Fire report. Here we show smoke days by county in California on average over the past decade and for 2024. There is no future without wildfire smoke. The future CAN be one where we accept the reality of smoke EMISSIONS but actively manage the harms from smoke EXPOSURE.
November 5, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Fig 2 from our Year in Fire report. Here we show smoke days by county in California on average over the past decade and for 2024. There is no future without wildfire smoke. The future CAN be one where we accept the reality of smoke EMISSIONS but actively manage the harms from smoke EXPOSURE.
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
My new passive-aggressive caption for images I make 😅:
"This digital collage was made by a human using Photoshop. That human's name is Sam Harrington."
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/imag...
"This digital collage was made by a human using Photoshop. That human's name is Sam Harrington."
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/imag...
Imagery faked with AI’s help only added to the awfulness of Hurricane Melissa » Yale Climate Connections
A Category 5 landfall during Halloween week was scary enough on its own.
yaleclimateconnections.org
November 4, 2025 at 2:54 PM
My new passive-aggressive caption for images I make 😅:
"This digital collage was made by a human using Photoshop. That human's name is Sam Harrington."
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/imag...
"This digital collage was made by a human using Photoshop. That human's name is Sam Harrington."
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/imag...
"Wherever the death toll, it will be wrong. A study following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017 found that excess deaths in the first few months following the storm was 70 times as much as the original official toll of 64 — still much more than officials' revision to 2,975 deaths later on."
Once more from yesterday: My newsletter was about how hurricanes kill people long after the wind and water is gone, how that will probably be worse in Jamaica, and how the media has already moved on from one of the worst storms to strike land in recorded history.
Please subscribe!
Please subscribe!
The Long Tail of Hurricane Death Will Be Even Longer in Jamaica
A growing body of research has demonstrated that hits from tropical cyclones leave more than just damaged rooftops in their wake, in fact raising mortality rates through a likely wide variety of mecha...
www.gravityisgone.com
November 3, 2025 at 3:00 PM
"Wherever the death toll, it will be wrong. A study following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017 found that excess deaths in the first few months following the storm was 70 times as much as the original official toll of 64 — still much more than officials' revision to 2,975 deaths later on."
“States and local communities should not be expected to pick up the slack to try to ensure their citizens’ safety — that is the modus operandi of a mafia protection ring, not the federal government. It should be noted that NOAA did not respond to Alaska Public Media’s requests for comment.”
Today in federal science slashed news, Alaska Public Media reports that NOAA has canceled a contract with the Alaska Earthquake center to collect data critical for NWS tsunami warnings. In weather, Kalmaegi a serious threat to Philippines and Vietnam. More: https://tinyurl.com/34p7n6f9
Alaska Public Media reports that NOAA canceled contract with state of Alaska for seismology data critical for tsunami warnings
Supercells produce very large hail in south Texas; a western Pacific tropical cyclone looks to have significant impacts this week.
tinyurl.com
November 2, 2025 at 7:12 PM
“States and local communities should not be expected to pick up the slack to try to ensure their citizens’ safety — that is the modus operandi of a mafia protection ring, not the federal government. It should be noted that NOAA did not respond to Alaska Public Media’s requests for comment.”
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
ICYMI: Staggering rainfall in Vietnam in the past week. Bach Ma mountain near Hue City recorded a one-day rainfall of 1,740 mm (68.50 in). This is unofficially the second highest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded globally.
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
October 31, 2025 at 6:04 PM
ICYMI: Staggering rainfall in Vietnam in the past week. Bach Ma mountain near Hue City recorded a one-day rainfall of 1,740 mm (68.50 in). This is unofficially the second highest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded globally.
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
The final act of the Hurricane #Melissa 10-day rampage will be tonight in southeastern Newfoundland, bringing an end to the historic hurricane's impacts.
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/hurr...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/hurr...
Hurricane Melissa dies over the cold waters of the North Atlantic » Yale Climate Connections
In what will hopefully be the final act of the suddenly historic 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, ex-Melissa will be sweeping past Newfoundland, Canada late tonight as an extratropical storm with Cat 1...
yaleclimateconnections.org
October 31, 2025 at 5:12 PM
The final act of the Hurricane #Melissa 10-day rampage will be tonight in southeastern Newfoundland, bringing an end to the historic hurricane's impacts.
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/hurr...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/hurr...
From the Aon October 31, 2025 Review of Global Catastrophe Activity comes this rainfall image for Melissa:
October 31, 2025 at 4:15 PM
From the Aon October 31, 2025 Review of Global Catastrophe Activity comes this rainfall image for Melissa:
Trouble ahead: “Nevada is home to the fastest rate of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) development in the country—over the last 30 years, the number of homes in the WUI more than tripled. The state has also seen nearly 20% of its land area burn over the last 40 years.”
Nevada just let property insurers exclude wildfire coverage. Homeowners won’t realize until it’s too late that fire isn't covered. Expect shock, underinsurance, and scrambling for expensive new policies. Plus: pressure for a federal wildfire safety net. open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...
What happens if property insurers are allowed to exclude wildfires from coverage?
“Are we just going to turn everybody loose and let the fires burn our houses down?” Nevada just did — and others may follow.
open.substack.com
October 31, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Trouble ahead: “Nevada is home to the fastest rate of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) development in the country—over the last 30 years, the number of homes in the WUI more than tripled. The state has also seen nearly 20% of its land area burn over the last 40 years.”
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
The three Category 5 storms of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
October 30, 2025 at 9:57 PM
The three Category 5 storms of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Peak 5-day rainfall in the Dominican Republic from #Melissa was 17.59” (446.5 mm). The capital of Santo Domingo got around 6” (150 mm).
wp.indomet.gob.do/wp-content/u...
wp.indomet.gob.do/wp-content/u...
October 30, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Peak 5-day rainfall in the Dominican Republic from #Melissa was 17.59” (446.5 mm). The capital of Santo Domingo got around 6” (150 mm).
wp.indomet.gob.do/wp-content/u...
wp.indomet.gob.do/wp-content/u...
Climate change strengthened Melissa about the same amount as in Hurricane Milton and Helene last year. However, the percentage increase in damage for Melissa due to climate change (12%) was less that for Milton and Helene (~45%) because Melissa was so strong that there wasn't much extra to destroy.
Climate change strengthened Hurricane Melissa, making the storm's winds stronger and the damage worse. » Yale Climate Connections
Two new rapid attribution studies have found that climate change increased Melissa's winds by 7-10% and damage by 12%.
yaleclimateconnections.org
October 30, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Climate change strengthened Melissa about the same amount as in Hurricane Milton and Helene last year. However, the percentage increase in damage for Melissa due to climate change (12%) was less that for Milton and Helene (~45%) because Melissa was so strong that there wasn't much extra to destroy.
Nighttime polar orbiter satellite photos of Jamaica before and after #Melissa show how the power grid was affected. Melissa knocked out power to about 77% of Jamaica’s customers, said Minister of Local Government Desmond McKenzie. Photos from worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov
October 30, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Nighttime polar orbiter satellite photos of Jamaica before and after #Melissa show how the power grid was affected. Melissa knocked out power to about 77% of Jamaica’s customers, said Minister of Local Government Desmond McKenzie. Photos from worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
From 1980-2002 THREE storms acheived extreme rapid intensification.
From 2003-2025 EIGHTEEN storms achieved extreme rapid intensification.
6X increase!
It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change!
(source of data Dr Kieran Bhatia x.com/bhatiakieran...)
From 2003-2025 EIGHTEEN storms achieved extreme rapid intensification.
6X increase!
It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change!
(source of data Dr Kieran Bhatia x.com/bhatiakieran...)
October 29, 2025 at 9:38 PM
From 1980-2002 THREE storms acheived extreme rapid intensification.
From 2003-2025 EIGHTEEN storms achieved extreme rapid intensification.
6X increase!
It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change!
(source of data Dr Kieran Bhatia x.com/bhatiakieran...)
From 2003-2025 EIGHTEEN storms achieved extreme rapid intensification.
6X increase!
It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change!
(source of data Dr Kieran Bhatia x.com/bhatiakieran...)
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Alrighty, ready to see something really cool? (and maybe a little nauseating)
The evolution of Hurricane Melissa's mesovortices at peak strength.
The evolution of Hurricane Melissa's mesovortices at peak strength.
October 29, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Alrighty, ready to see something really cool? (and maybe a little nauseating)
The evolution of Hurricane Melissa's mesovortices at peak strength.
The evolution of Hurricane Melissa's mesovortices at peak strength.
Today's #Melissa post covers the slew of remarkable records the hurricane set. And look at the calendar when thinking about these records: Melissa hit on October 28, seven weeks past the traditional peak of hurricane season, at a time when less than 10% of an average season’s activity occurs!
Cat 3 Hurricane Melissa hits Cuba, speeds through the Bahamas » Yale Climate Connections
Melissa is expected to impact the Bahamas and Bermuda as a Cat 2 hurricane, then become extratropical near Newfoundland, Canada, on Friday.
yaleclimateconnections.org
October 29, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Today's #Melissa post covers the slew of remarkable records the hurricane set. And look at the calendar when thinking about these records: Melissa hit on October 28, seven weeks past the traditional peak of hurricane season, at a time when less than 10% of an average season’s activity occurs!
My quote for today's WaPo story: "We’re going to be seeing a lot more Melissas in the future and we’re definitely not ready for it".
www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025...
www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025...
The dangerous combination that made Melissa a monster hurricane
Hurricane Melissa’s power was undeniable, intensifying faster than most storms on record.
www.washingtonpost.com
October 29, 2025 at 2:42 PM
My quote for today's WaPo story: "We’re going to be seeing a lot more Melissas in the future and we’re definitely not ready for it".
www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025...
www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025...
NOAA’s hurricane research division staff has been cut from 52 in 2020 to 28 in 2025, almost a 50% cut. They’ve resorted to using volunteers to man the critical radar and dropsonde stations on Hurricane Hunter flights. Senseless cuts in an era of climate change making the strongest storms stronger.
Volunteers Step In to Help Understaffed NOAA Track Hurricane Melissa
www.nytimes.com
October 29, 2025 at 1:45 AM
NOAA’s hurricane research division staff has been cut from 52 in 2020 to 28 in 2025, almost a 50% cut. They’ve resorted to using volunteers to man the critical radar and dropsonde stations on Hurricane Hunter flights. Senseless cuts in an era of climate change making the strongest storms stronger.
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
The Copernicus Sentinel-2 polar-orbiting satellite made an extremely fortuitous pass over Hurricane Melissa right before it made landfall in Jamaica to provide these stunning images of one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in history
October 28, 2025 at 10:04 PM
The Copernicus Sentinel-2 polar-orbiting satellite made an extremely fortuitous pass over Hurricane Melissa right before it made landfall in Jamaica to provide these stunning images of one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in history
I've had to update the plot of the strongest tropical cyclones by ocean basin all too often in recent years, since climate change increases the number of high-end storms. Melissa has joined the club, tied with Dorian (2019) as strongest Atlantic hurricane recorded outside the Gulf of Mexico.
October 28, 2025 at 10:16 PM
I've had to update the plot of the strongest tropical cyclones by ocean basin all too often in recent years, since climate change increases the number of high-end storms. Melissa has joined the club, tied with Dorian (2019) as strongest Atlantic hurricane recorded outside the Gulf of Mexico.