Alaa Al Khourdajie
@dralaaclimate.bsky.social
Research Fellow @ImperialCollege | Lead Author @IPCC AR7, @WCRP HIETPs & @UNEP GEO7 | WP4 Lead @DIAMOND | Guest Scholar @IIASA | Dad
#Climate #Energy #Scenarios
https://sites.google.com/site/akhourdajie/
#Climate #Energy #Scenarios
https://sites.google.com/site/akhourdajie/
Quick clarification: at roughly today’s global emissions, an extra five years of “holding steady” would add about 0.1°C of warming. So talk of a remaining 1.5°C “gap” is not a reassuring buffer… every year of plateau deepens any future overshoot and makes a return less feasible.
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November 23, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Quick clarification: at roughly today’s global emissions, an extra five years of “holding steady” would add about 0.1°C of warming. So talk of a remaining 1.5°C “gap” is not a reassuring buffer… every year of plateau deepens any future overshoot and makes a return less feasible.
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The text’s “national pacing” fundamentally misunderstands this:
Delay doesn’t provide options; it eliminates them. Every year without output cuts pushes the peak higher, making any return to 1.5°C less feasible.
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Delay doesn’t provide options; it eliminates them. Every year without output cuts pushes the peak higher, making any return to 1.5°C less feasible.
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November 22, 2025 at 11:32 PM
The text’s “national pacing” fundamentally misunderstands this:
Delay doesn’t provide options; it eliminates them. Every year without output cuts pushes the peak higher, making any return to 1.5°C less feasible.
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Delay doesn’t provide options; it eliminates them. Every year without output cuts pushes the peak higher, making any return to 1.5°C less feasible.
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Either we accept 2.3°C as permanent, OR we attempt course correction so late that overshoot becomes unnecessarily deep and prolonged, if return remains feasible at all.
Both mean more irreversible climate impacts.
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Both mean more irreversible climate impacts.
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November 22, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Either we accept 2.3°C as permanent, OR we attempt course correction so late that overshoot becomes unnecessarily deep and prolonged, if return remains feasible at all.
Both mean more irreversible climate impacts.
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Both mean more irreversible climate impacts.
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Yet the text acknowledges a 2.3–2.5°C trajectory, risking even this overshoot-and-return scenario.
Without binding requirements for immediate fossil fuel cuts, we face two failures:
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Without binding requirements for immediate fossil fuel cuts, we face two failures:
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November 22, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Yet the text acknowledges a 2.3–2.5°C trajectory, risking even this overshoot-and-return scenario.
Without binding requirements for immediate fossil fuel cuts, we face two failures:
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Without binding requirements for immediate fossil fuel cuts, we face two failures:
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My main remark: the increased risk of and from overshoot.
Our only chance for 1.5°C is now likely through overshoot; temporarily exceeding before returning. Even that comes with huge feasibility challenges.
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Our only chance for 1.5°C is now likely through overshoot; temporarily exceeding before returning. Even that comes with huge feasibility challenges.
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November 22, 2025 at 11:32 PM
My main remark: the increased risk of and from overshoot.
Our only chance for 1.5°C is now likely through overshoot; temporarily exceeding before returning. Even that comes with huge feasibility challenges.
2/
Our only chance for 1.5°C is now likely through overshoot; temporarily exceeding before returning. Even that comes with huge feasibility challenges.
2/
If the final text implies that "abatement" is a valid alternative to a "transition away," it isn't just offering flexibility, it is ignoring the physical reality of the transition.
#COP30 #Belem #FossilFuels #EnergyTransition
#COP30 #Belem #FossilFuels #EnergyTransition
November 21, 2025 at 7:10 PM
If the final text implies that "abatement" is a valid alternative to a "transition away," it isn't just offering flexibility, it is ignoring the physical reality of the transition.
#COP30 #Belem #FossilFuels #EnergyTransition
#COP30 #Belem #FossilFuels #EnergyTransition
The hierarchy is clear: 75–85% of emission reductions through 2050 come from using less fossil fuel.
CCS plays a role, but it is strictly secondary, contributing a median of just 15–25%.
Technological neutrality is a political concept, not a scientific one.
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CCS plays a role, but it is strictly secondary, contributing a median of just 15–25%.
Technological neutrality is a political concept, not a scientific one.
2/3
November 21, 2025 at 7:10 PM
The hierarchy is clear: 75–85% of emission reductions through 2050 come from using less fossil fuel.
CCS plays a role, but it is strictly secondary, contributing a median of just 15–25%.
Technological neutrality is a political concept, not a scientific one.
2/3
CCS plays a role, but it is strictly secondary, contributing a median of just 15–25%.
Technological neutrality is a political concept, not a scientific one.
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We will be guided by the audience questions, given the format of the event, but I doubt such a question won’t come up
November 16, 2025 at 5:14 PM
We will be guided by the audience questions, given the format of the event, but I doubt such a question won’t come up
About the session: This interactive session will cut through misinformation on CCUS by using trusted voices to explain the facts. The event will include live audience polling, a CCUS ‘teach-in’ from @katharinehayhoe.com, and rapid myth-busting shaped by audience Q&A.
November 13, 2025 at 1:05 PM
About the session: This interactive session will cut through misinformation on CCUS by using trusted voices to explain the facts. The event will include live audience polling, a CCUS ‘teach-in’ from @katharinehayhoe.com, and rapid myth-busting shaped by audience Q&A.
🔬 New paper alert: "The role of artificial intelligence in climate change scientific assessments" @plosclimate.org
As #AI adoption accelerates, should @ipcc.bsky.social integrate these tools? Can LLMs (chatbots) communicate findings while maintaining scientific rigour?
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
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As #AI adoption accelerates, should @ipcc.bsky.social integrate these tools? Can LLMs (chatbots) communicate findings while maintaining scientific rigour?
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
1/9
The role of artificial intelligence in climate change scientific assessments
Climate change scientific assessments prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) face interconnected dual challenges: the exponential growth of literature, hindering synthesis ef...
doi.org
October 9, 2025 at 9:43 PM