Alaa Al Khourdajie
@dralaaclimate.bsky.social
Research Fellow @ImperialCollege | Lead Author @IPCC AR7, @WCRP HIETPs & @UNEP GEO7 | WP4 Lead @DIAMOND | Guest Scholar @IIASA | Dad
#Climate #Energy #Scenarios
https://sites.google.com/site/akhourdajie/
#Climate #Energy #Scenarios
https://sites.google.com/site/akhourdajie/
As the final text is being hammered out here in Belém for #COP30, the issue of fossil fuel phase-out is on the table again.
Looking at the actual numbers from the IPCC AR6 1.5°C assessed scenarios to decompose reduced fossil fuel output vs. carbon capture and storage - CCS (i.e. abatement)
1/3
Looking at the actual numbers from the IPCC AR6 1.5°C assessed scenarios to decompose reduced fossil fuel output vs. carbon capture and storage - CCS (i.e. abatement)
1/3
November 21, 2025 at 7:10 PM
As the final text is being hammered out here in Belém for #COP30, the issue of fossil fuel phase-out is on the table again.
Looking at the actual numbers from the IPCC AR6 1.5°C assessed scenarios to decompose reduced fossil fuel output vs. carbon capture and storage - CCS (i.e. abatement)
1/3
Looking at the actual numbers from the IPCC AR6 1.5°C assessed scenarios to decompose reduced fossil fuel output vs. carbon capture and storage - CCS (i.e. abatement)
1/3
Join our #COP30 event
“CCUS Myth-Busting Live: Ask the Experts”
Date and time Monday 17 November, 10:00–11:30 am local time (1:00-2:30pm UK time)
Location: UK Pavilion, Blue Zone (A23)
YouTube live stream: www.youtube.com/live/SjaW3Ob...
“CCUS Myth-Busting Live: Ask the Experts”
Date and time Monday 17 November, 10:00–11:30 am local time (1:00-2:30pm UK time)
Location: UK Pavilion, Blue Zone (A23)
YouTube live stream: www.youtube.com/live/SjaW3Ob...
November 13, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Join our #COP30 event
“CCUS Myth-Busting Live: Ask the Experts”
Date and time Monday 17 November, 10:00–11:30 am local time (1:00-2:30pm UK time)
Location: UK Pavilion, Blue Zone (A23)
YouTube live stream: www.youtube.com/live/SjaW3Ob...
“CCUS Myth-Busting Live: Ask the Experts”
Date and time Monday 17 November, 10:00–11:30 am local time (1:00-2:30pm UK time)
Location: UK Pavilion, Blue Zone (A23)
YouTube live stream: www.youtube.com/live/SjaW3Ob...
New working paper out: "Four scenarios for an @ipcc.bsky.social navigating Artificial Intelligence"
Led by @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social, with @shinasayama.bsky.social and Oliver Geden
Thread 🧵
1/13
Led by @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social, with @shinasayama.bsky.social and Oliver Geden
Thread 🧵
1/13
September 29, 2025 at 11:36 AM
New working paper out: "Four scenarios for an @ipcc.bsky.social navigating Artificial Intelligence"
Led by @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social, with @shinasayama.bsky.social and Oliver Geden
Thread 🧵
1/13
Led by @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social, with @shinasayama.bsky.social and Oliver Geden
Thread 🧵
1/13
3) 🏛️ For assessment workflows: Two institutional pathways
• IPCC as "producer" (developing & using validated tools internally)
• IPCC as "assessor" (critically evaluating published AI-driven analyses in the literature)
8/9
• IPCC as "producer" (developing & using validated tools internally)
• IPCC as "assessor" (critically evaluating published AI-driven analyses in the literature)
8/9
September 15, 2025 at 5:45 AM
3) 🏛️ For assessment workflows: Two institutional pathways
• IPCC as "producer" (developing & using validated tools internally)
• IPCC as "assessor" (critically evaluating published AI-driven analyses in the literature)
8/9
• IPCC as "producer" (developing & using validated tools internally)
• IPCC as "assessor" (critically evaluating published AI-driven analyses in the literature)
8/9
1) 📊 A detailed taxonomy (Table 1) mapping AI tools across 5 workflow stages: semantic search in literature query, ML classifiers for screening, topic modelling for knowledge mapping, each specifying opportunities, challenges & the expert's irreplaceable role
5/9
5/9
September 15, 2025 at 5:45 AM
1) 📊 A detailed taxonomy (Table 1) mapping AI tools across 5 workflow stages: semantic search in literature query, ML classifiers for screening, topic modelling for knowledge mapping, each specifying opportunities, challenges & the expert's irreplaceable role
5/9
5/9
Pleasure to be selected as a Lead Author for IPCC AR7, chapter 14 (Integration and interactions across sectors and systems), alongside a great team to work with for the next few years.
Full list of all AR7 authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
AR7 outline: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...
Full list of all AR7 authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
AR7 outline: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...
August 15, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Pleasure to be selected as a Lead Author for IPCC AR7, chapter 14 (Integration and interactions across sectors and systems), alongside a great team to work with for the next few years.
Full list of all AR7 authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
AR7 outline: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...
Full list of all AR7 authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
AR7 outline: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...
I keep coming back to these pages of Omar El Akkad’s book brilliantly titled “One day, when it's safe, when there's no personal downside to calling a thing what it is, when it's too late to hold anyone accountable, everyone will have always been against this”
July 29, 2025 at 10:23 AM
I keep coming back to these pages of Omar El Akkad’s book brilliantly titled “One day, when it's safe, when there's no personal downside to calling a thing what it is, when it's too late to hold anyone accountable, everyone will have always been against this”
The future will be shaped by decisions we make today.
Working on climate mitigation has never felt more personal
#WarmingStripes
Working on climate mitigation has never felt more personal
#WarmingStripes
May 19, 2025 at 8:14 AM
The future will be shaped by decisions we make today.
Working on climate mitigation has never felt more personal
#WarmingStripes
Working on climate mitigation has never felt more personal
#WarmingStripes
Equity & justice are major issues in cost-effectiveness utilitarian mitigation scenarios. Many in the scientific community are working on addressing them.
Important to flag though: @ipcc.bsky.social does not have models, or run scenarios. It is an assessment of what is out there in the literature.
Important to flag though: @ipcc.bsky.social does not have models, or run scenarios. It is an assessment of what is out there in the literature.
February 20, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Equity & justice are major issues in cost-effectiveness utilitarian mitigation scenarios. Many in the scientific community are working on addressing them.
Important to flag though: @ipcc.bsky.social does not have models, or run scenarios. It is an assessment of what is out there in the literature.
Important to flag though: @ipcc.bsky.social does not have models, or run scenarios. It is an assessment of what is out there in the literature.
Climate scientists be like..
January 1, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Climate scientists be like..
#COP29 text is out: unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
Key omissions: no mention of transitioning away from fossil fuels, phasing down unabated coal, or scaling up renewables and efficiency. These measures alone weren’t enough to meet the PA goals... and now, we’ve taken a step back...
Key omissions: no mention of transitioning away from fossil fuels, phasing down unabated coal, or scaling up renewables and efficiency. These measures alone weren’t enough to meet the PA goals... and now, we’ve taken a step back...
November 23, 2024 at 9:39 PM
#COP29 text is out: unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
Key omissions: no mention of transitioning away from fossil fuels, phasing down unabated coal, or scaling up renewables and efficiency. These measures alone weren’t enough to meet the PA goals... and now, we’ve taken a step back...
Key omissions: no mention of transitioning away from fossil fuels, phasing down unabated coal, or scaling up renewables and efficiency. These measures alone weren’t enough to meet the PA goals... and now, we’ve taken a step back...
Half way through #COP29, the negotiations on mitigation work programme under #SBSTA #SBI are almost falling apart.
LMDCs parties are calling to defer the whole discussion till COP30, Brazil, blocking continued talks next week.. not even accepting the below text simply stating lack of agreement..
LMDCs parties are calling to defer the whole discussion till COP30, Brazil, blocking continued talks next week.. not even accepting the below text simply stating lack of agreement..
November 16, 2024 at 7:21 PM
The opening plenary of the 3rd (and last) lead authors meeting for the @UNEP #GEO7 assessment on climate change, biodiversity loss, air pollution and land degradation, Nairobi
September 2, 2024 at 7:24 AM
The opening plenary of the 3rd (and last) lead authors meeting for the @UNEP #GEO7 assessment on climate change, biodiversity loss, air pollution and land degradation, Nairobi
The Economist had a go at this, in their weekly Simply Science.. this still reads to me a model being parametrised (for instance) with real time data.. thoughts?
August 29, 2024 at 9:22 AM
The Economist had a go at this, in their weekly Simply Science.. this still reads to me a model being parametrised (for instance) with real time data.. thoughts?
For example: almost 90% of companies with 1.5°C-aligned targets approved by Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) are in advanced economies, with less than 1% in Africa (Fig 1)
This shows a clear bias in adoption & capacity, resulting from the narrow & arbitrary rules
11/20
This shows a clear bias in adoption & capacity, resulting from the narrow & arbitrary rules
11/20
July 23, 2024 at 10:52 AM
For example: almost 90% of companies with 1.5°C-aligned targets approved by Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) are in advanced economies, with less than 1% in Africa (Fig 1)
This shows a clear bias in adoption & capacity, resulting from the narrow & arbitrary rules
11/20
This shows a clear bias in adoption & capacity, resulting from the narrow & arbitrary rules
11/20
🚨New Paper🚨"Science-based targets miss the mark" with @andyreisinger.bsky.social, Annette Cowie, Oliver Geden @natureportfolio.bsky.social - Comm Earth & Env #OpenAccess
In this perspective, we challenge the equity & ambition claims of science-based targets 🧵
nature.com/articles/s43...
1/20
In this perspective, we challenge the equity & ambition claims of science-based targets 🧵
nature.com/articles/s43...
1/20
July 23, 2024 at 10:49 AM
🚨New Paper🚨"Science-based targets miss the mark" with @andyreisinger.bsky.social, Annette Cowie, Oliver Geden @natureportfolio.bsky.social - Comm Earth & Env #OpenAccess
In this perspective, we challenge the equity & ambition claims of science-based targets 🧵
nature.com/articles/s43...
1/20
In this perspective, we challenge the equity & ambition claims of science-based targets 🧵
nature.com/articles/s43...
1/20
The overall picture by factor (climate ambition vs socioeconomic background vs differences between models) looks like this..
8/12
8/12
February 9, 2024 at 12:51 PM
The overall picture by factor (climate ambition vs socioeconomic background vs differences between models) looks like this..
8/12
8/12
Final energy by sector, of course pop & GDP (SSPs) matter most..
Not for the industry sector, models assumptions matter more, e.g. role of non-electric fuels, indirect electrification via hydrogen or constraints on electrifying the chemical industry (cc @chrisbataille.bsky.social )
6/12
Not for the industry sector, models assumptions matter more, e.g. role of non-electric fuels, indirect electrification via hydrogen or constraints on electrifying the chemical industry (cc @chrisbataille.bsky.social )
6/12
February 9, 2024 at 12:29 PM
Final energy by sector, of course pop & GDP (SSPs) matter most..
Not for the industry sector, models assumptions matter more, e.g. role of non-electric fuels, indirect electrification via hydrogen or constraints on electrifying the chemical industry (cc @chrisbataille.bsky.social )
6/12
Not for the industry sector, models assumptions matter more, e.g. role of non-electric fuels, indirect electrification via hydrogen or constraints on electrifying the chemical industry (cc @chrisbataille.bsky.social )
6/12
The background scenarios (SSPs) factor strongly influences final energy demand (population & econ growth) - again no surprise
A seemingly unimportant effect of climate ambition on electricity is a product of more electricity overall ⬆️ but also more efficient use of it ⬇️
5/12
A seemingly unimportant effect of climate ambition on electricity is a product of more electricity overall ⬆️ but also more efficient use of it ⬇️
5/12
February 9, 2024 at 12:29 PM
The background scenarios (SSPs) factor strongly influences final energy demand (population & econ growth) - again no surprise
A seemingly unimportant effect of climate ambition on electricity is a product of more electricity overall ⬆️ but also more efficient use of it ⬇️
5/12
A seemingly unimportant effect of climate ambition on electricity is a product of more electricity overall ⬆️ but also more efficient use of it ⬇️
5/12
When it comes to renewables, differences across models matter a lot
A possible implication is that there is more of a consensus that high levels of ambition require more renewable energy than there is on the type of renewable energy required.
4/12
A possible implication is that there is more of a consensus that high levels of ambition require more renewable energy than there is on the type of renewable energy required.
4/12
February 9, 2024 at 12:28 PM
When it comes to renewables, differences across models matter a lot
A possible implication is that there is more of a consensus that high levels of ambition require more renewable energy than there is on the type of renewable energy required.
4/12
A possible implication is that there is more of a consensus that high levels of ambition require more renewable energy than there is on the type of renewable energy required.
4/12
The climate ambition factor is the biggest driver of emissions & fossil fuels reductions (especially coal & oil) -no surprise there - (blue stacks in plots)
Coupling FF w CCS: climate ambition is unimportant, socioecon assump. are, but chosen level of CCS vary among models
3/12
Coupling FF w CCS: climate ambition is unimportant, socioecon assump. are, but chosen level of CCS vary among models
3/12
February 9, 2024 at 12:27 PM
The climate ambition factor is the biggest driver of emissions & fossil fuels reductions (especially coal & oil) -no surprise there - (blue stacks in plots)
Coupling FF w CCS: climate ambition is unimportant, socioecon assump. are, but chosen level of CCS vary among models
3/12
Coupling FF w CCS: climate ambition is unimportant, socioecon assump. are, but chosen level of CCS vary among models
3/12
We attribute variations in energy-related indicators to 3 factors individually
▶️Climate ambition
▶️Socioeconomic background scenarios (SSPs)
▶️Differences between models
Importantly we also highlight proportions of variations that can’t be explained (graphical abstract)
2/12
▶️Climate ambition
▶️Socioeconomic background scenarios (SSPs)
▶️Differences between models
Importantly we also highlight proportions of variations that can’t be explained (graphical abstract)
2/12
February 9, 2024 at 12:26 PM
We attribute variations in energy-related indicators to 3 factors individually
▶️Climate ambition
▶️Socioeconomic background scenarios (SSPs)
▶️Differences between models
Importantly we also highlight proportions of variations that can’t be explained (graphical abstract)
2/12
▶️Climate ambition
▶️Socioeconomic background scenarios (SSPs)
▶️Differences between models
Importantly we also highlight proportions of variations that can’t be explained (graphical abstract)
2/12
Next, mentions of fossil fuel phaseout in the Technical Assessment of the GST1, Sept 2023
4/6
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
4/6
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
December 11, 2023 at 7:20 PM
Next, mentions of fossil fuel phaseout in the Technical Assessment of the GST1, Sept 2023
4/6
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
4/6
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
In the latest @IPCC AR6 reports, the role of fossil fuels in net zero CO2 energy systems is clearly set out, also (unlike 39 (c) in #COP28 text above) net zero CO2 emissions timing needs to be reached earlier WGIII AR6 SPM on the left.. AR6 SYR report on the right
3/6
3/6
December 11, 2023 at 7:19 PM
In the latest @IPCC AR6 reports, the role of fossil fuels in net zero CO2 energy systems is clearly set out, also (unlike 39 (c) in #COP28 text above) net zero CO2 emissions timing needs to be reached earlier WGIII AR6 SPM on the left.. AR6 SYR report on the right
3/6
3/6