J. Doyne Farmer
@doynefarmer.bsky.social
Director of Complexity Economics at INET Oxford; Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford; external faculty at the Santa Fe Institute; Chief Scientist, Macrocosm
I had a chat with Brad Carr about how to bear roulette and predict the economy - you watch us talking at www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbdU...
#ComplexityEconomics #Complexity
#ComplexityEconomics #Complexity
Doyne Farmer: Roulette, Chaos Theory, Global Economics, Oxford University
YouTube video by Brad Carr
www.youtube.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:22 AM
I had a chat with Brad Carr about how to bear roulette and predict the economy - you watch us talking at www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbdU...
#ComplexityEconomics #Complexity
#ComplexityEconomics #Complexity
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
We’re recruiting a Postdoctoral Researcher to join a new Oxford Martin programme led by renowned innovation scholars: Prof @maxroser.bsky.social, Prof @doynefarmer.bsky.social & Dr @francoislafond.bsky.social.
Help shape global insights into how technologies evolve.
Link in thread ⬇️
Help shape global insights into how technologies evolve.
Link in thread ⬇️
November 12, 2025 at 1:03 PM
We’re recruiting a Postdoctoral Researcher to join a new Oxford Martin programme led by renowned innovation scholars: Prof @maxroser.bsky.social, Prof @doynefarmer.bsky.social & Dr @francoislafond.bsky.social.
Help shape global insights into how technologies evolve.
Link in thread ⬇️
Help shape global insights into how technologies evolve.
Link in thread ⬇️
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
We too are very excited about Karolina Bassa's new paper with Rama Cont on Dynamics of sovereign debt: credit risk and sustainability analysis
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
November 7, 2025 at 10:20 AM
We too are very excited about Karolina Bassa's new paper with Rama Cont on Dynamics of sovereign debt: credit risk and sustainability analysis
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
In our next #ComplexityEconomics seminar on 12 Nov, Rafael Prieto-Curiel @csh.ac.at will explore the challenges of making cities work for everyone while facing dual challenges of managing both expansion and contraction at a time of rapid future population expansion
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/citie...
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/citie...
Cities for everyone
In this talk, Rafael Prieto-Curiel will explore the challenges of making cities work for everyone. Previously, Rafael worked on urban dynamics as part of…
www.inet.ox.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 3:10 PM
In our next #ComplexityEconomics seminar on 12 Nov, Rafael Prieto-Curiel @csh.ac.at will explore the challenges of making cities work for everyone while facing dual challenges of managing both expansion and contraction at a time of rapid future population expansion
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/citie...
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/citie...
We're looking for a postdoc for our new project on forecasting technological change - more details below
JOB OPPORTUNITY: Post Doctoral Research Associate in the Economics of Technological Change (2yr) ➵ https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/vacancies
Join the @oxmartinschool.bsky.social Prog. on Forecasting Technological Change, led by @francoislafond.bsky.social , @doynefarmer.bsky.social & @maxroser.bsky.social
Join the @oxmartinschool.bsky.social Prog. on Forecasting Technological Change, led by @francoislafond.bsky.social , @doynefarmer.bsky.social & @maxroser.bsky.social
November 3, 2025 at 3:48 PM
We're looking for a postdoc for our new project on forecasting technological change - more details below
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
What if one model could realistically predict the economy of an entire country? The entire world? A month-long working group, co-organized by SFI External Professor @doynefarmer.bsky.social, made the case that agent-based models may bring this vision to life:
Agent-based models move into the economic mainstream
In the 1980s and ’90s, SFI played laboratory to a promising new method known as agent-based modeling. In ensuing decades, agent-based models (ABMs) proliferated across many fields, including economics...
www.santafe.edu
October 28, 2025 at 5:48 PM
What if one model could realistically predict the economy of an entire country? The entire world? A month-long working group, co-organized by SFI External Professor @doynefarmer.bsky.social, made the case that agent-based models may bring this vision to life:
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
How to improve LLM responses in domains we can’t score? Implicit signals from structured dialogue help LLM agents edit their own contexts, improving responses dramatically.
“Self-evolving expertise in complex non-verifiable subject domains: dialogue as implicit meta-RL”.
arxiv.org/pdf/2510.15772
“Self-evolving expertise in complex non-verifiable subject domains: dialogue as implicit meta-RL”.
arxiv.org/pdf/2510.15772
arxiv.org
October 20, 2025 at 11:16 AM
How to improve LLM responses in domains we can’t score? Implicit signals from structured dialogue help LLM agents edit their own contexts, improving responses dramatically.
“Self-evolving expertise in complex non-verifiable subject domains: dialogue as implicit meta-RL”.
arxiv.org/pdf/2510.15772
“Self-evolving expertise in complex non-verifiable subject domains: dialogue as implicit meta-RL”.
arxiv.org/pdf/2510.15772
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
Come work with us! We’re hiring a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Food System Transformations at the University of Oxford.
This role is part of an ambitious, interdisciplinary project exploring rapid food system transformations. More details here: my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
This role is part of an ambitious, interdisciplinary project exploring rapid food system transformations. More details here: my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
Job Details
my.corehr.com
October 8, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Come work with us! We’re hiring a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Food System Transformations at the University of Oxford.
This role is part of an ambitious, interdisciplinary project exploring rapid food system transformations. More details here: my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
This role is part of an ambitious, interdisciplinary project exploring rapid food system transformations. More details here: my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
Our #Complexity Economics Seminar series is back! We start next Wednesday 22 October with a talk from Cambridge University's @martagrzeskiewicz.bsky.social presenting an algorithm for uncovering a utility function based on observational consumption data.
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/uncov...
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/uncov...
Uncovering utility functions from observational data
The algorithm, Preference Extraction and Reward Learning (PEARL) is able to uncover a representation of the utility function that best rationalises…
www.inet.ox.ac.uk
October 15, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Our #Complexity Economics Seminar series is back! We start next Wednesday 22 October with a talk from Cambridge University's @martagrzeskiewicz.bsky.social presenting an algorithm for uncovering a utility function based on observational consumption data.
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/uncov...
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/uncov...
I have a new paper out in @oxrepjournal.bsky.social explaining Agent-based models #ABMs and their advantages and disadvantages in comparison to standard models.
doi.org/10.1093/oxre...
doi.org/10.1093/oxre...
Quantitative agent-based models: a promising alternative for macroeconomics
Abstract. Agent-based models (ABMs) are dynamic computer simulations that abandon utility maximization and instead assume that agents are boundedly rationa
doi.org
October 13, 2025 at 4:17 PM
I have a new paper out in @oxrepjournal.bsky.social explaining Agent-based models #ABMs and their advantages and disadvantages in comparison to standard models.
doi.org/10.1093/oxre...
doi.org/10.1093/oxre...
This was great fun!
An excerpt from today of dialoguing and drawing with @doynefarmer.bsky.social with ILM Collective.
It was an honour to talk to an elder in science about time, chaos, entropy, emergence, climate change, hope, purpose and AI.
#hope #art #science #ilmcollective #drawing #montreal #asmaahsankhan
It was an honour to talk to an elder in science about time, chaos, entropy, emergence, climate change, hope, purpose and AI.
#hope #art #science #ilmcollective #drawing #montreal #asmaahsankhan
October 6, 2025 at 2:33 PM
This was great fun!
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
🚨 Fresh from ArXiv:
“Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based Inference on Latent State Estimation in Agent-Based Models”
with @marcopangallo.bsky.social, @c0rrad0.bsky.social, & @gdfm.bsky.social
👉 arxiv.org/abs/2509.17625
“Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based Inference on Latent State Estimation in Agent-Based Models”
with @marcopangallo.bsky.social, @c0rrad0.bsky.social, & @gdfm.bsky.social
👉 arxiv.org/abs/2509.17625
October 6, 2025 at 7:53 AM
🚨 Fresh from ArXiv:
“Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based Inference on Latent State Estimation in Agent-Based Models”
with @marcopangallo.bsky.social, @c0rrad0.bsky.social, & @gdfm.bsky.social
👉 arxiv.org/abs/2509.17625
“Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based Inference on Latent State Estimation in Agent-Based Models”
with @marcopangallo.bsky.social, @c0rrad0.bsky.social, & @gdfm.bsky.social
👉 arxiv.org/abs/2509.17625
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
Coming up on 1 October @wifo.bsky.social: Karolina Bassa will present on the impact of fiscal and public investment policies on the sovereign's borrowing cost and credit risk in the presence of stochastic output shocks and credit-sensitive funding from investors👇
www.wifo.ac.at/en/event/433...
www.wifo.ac.at/en/event/433...
A Quantitative Model of Sovereign Credit Risk and Debt Sustainability
www.wifo.ac.at
September 29, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Coming up on 1 October @wifo.bsky.social: Karolina Bassa will present on the impact of fiscal and public investment policies on the sovereign's borrowing cost and credit risk in the presence of stochastic output shocks and credit-sensitive funding from investors👇
www.wifo.ac.at/en/event/433...
www.wifo.ac.at/en/event/433...
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
@doynefarmer.bsky.social spoke to Gregory McNiff at the New Books Network about his research and Making Sense of Chaos.
You can listen at newbooksnetwork.com/making-sense...
#Complexity #ComplexityEconomics
You can listen at newbooksnetwork.com/making-sense...
#Complexity #ComplexityEconomics
J. Doyne Farmer, "Making Sense of Chaos" (Yale UP, 2024) - New Books Network
newbooksnetwork.com
September 25, 2025 at 11:05 AM
@doynefarmer.bsky.social spoke to Gregory McNiff at the New Books Network about his research and Making Sense of Chaos.
You can listen at newbooksnetwork.com/making-sense...
#Complexity #ComplexityEconomics
You can listen at newbooksnetwork.com/making-sense...
#Complexity #ComplexityEconomics
I am at New York climate week, and at a reception put on by @ember-energy.org, who does great work in promoting the green transition. I had the pleasure of riding in an all electric boat built by Flux Marine - it moved silently through the water to the Statue of Liberty and back at an amazing speed!
September 25, 2025 at 10:12 AM
I am at New York climate week, and at a reception put on by @ember-energy.org, who does great work in promoting the green transition. I had the pleasure of riding in an all electric boat built by Flux Marine - it moved silently through the water to the Statue of Liberty and back at an amazing speed!
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
Additional role for for @ericbeinhocker.bsky.social announced
Eric has been appointed to the Science Board of @sfiscience.bsky.social as its Chair
The role advises on scientific strategy for the Institute.
https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/eric-beinhocker-to-chair-santa-fe-institute-science-board
Eric has been appointed to the Science Board of @sfiscience.bsky.social as its Chair
The role advises on scientific strategy for the Institute.
https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/eric-beinhocker-to-chair-santa-fe-institute-science-board
September 3, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Additional role for for @ericbeinhocker.bsky.social announced
Eric has been appointed to the Science Board of @sfiscience.bsky.social as its Chair
The role advises on scientific strategy for the Institute.
https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/eric-beinhocker-to-chair-santa-fe-institute-science-board
Eric has been appointed to the Science Board of @sfiscience.bsky.social as its Chair
The role advises on scientific strategy for the Institute.
https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/eric-beinhocker-to-chair-santa-fe-institute-science-board
My summer at @sfiscience.bsky.social is coming to an end. Along with the people, I will miss the views and hiking in the hills. Watching the moonrise from Castle Rock is something to be recommended.
See you again next year!
See you again next year!
August 29, 2025 at 4:01 PM
My summer at @sfiscience.bsky.social is coming to an end. Along with the people, I will miss the views and hiking in the hills. Watching the moonrise from Castle Rock is something to be recommended.
See you again next year!
See you again next year!
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
New guide for #climate & #finance ministries on the most effective ways to model Net-Zero Transition was just published in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy @oxfordunipress.bsky.social @cameronhepburn.bsky.social @doynefarmer.bsky.social @inetoxford.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/oxrep/advanc...
academic.oup.com/oxrep/advanc...
Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy
Abstract. Reaching net-zero emissions will involve a structural transformation of the global economy. The transition is complicated by deep uncertainty abo
academic.oup.com
August 29, 2025 at 12:50 PM
New guide for #climate & #finance ministries on the most effective ways to model Net-Zero Transition was just published in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy @oxfordunipress.bsky.social @cameronhepburn.bsky.social @doynefarmer.bsky.social @inetoxford.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/oxrep/advanc...
academic.oup.com/oxrep/advanc...
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
Interested in climate change and the UK #CarbonBudget? Watch this space! @doynefarmer.bsky.social is heading up our latest project to fill evidence gaps ahead of the UK Government setting its Seventh Carbon Budget next year
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/sprint-...
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/sprint-...
Sprint to Seventh Carbon Budget Commences
A project to fill macroeconomic and distributional analysis evidence gaps has started at INET Oxford this summer.
www.inet.ox.ac.uk
August 29, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Interested in climate change and the UK #CarbonBudget? Watch this space! @doynefarmer.bsky.social is heading up our latest project to fill evidence gaps ahead of the UK Government setting its Seventh Carbon Budget next year
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/sprint-...
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/sprint-...
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
▶New guide to modelling the net zero transition is published;
▶Gives clarity to a plethora of available modelling options becoming increasingly relevant
Led by @cameronhepburn.bsky.social
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/most-ef...
▶Gives clarity to a plethora of available modelling options becoming increasingly relevant
Led by @cameronhepburn.bsky.social
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/most-ef...
Most Effective Models To Guide The Net-Zero Transition
A new guide for climate and finance ministries on the most effective ways to model the Net-Zero Transition has been published in the Oxford Review of…
www.inet.ox.ac.uk
August 29, 2025 at 10:55 AM
▶New guide to modelling the net zero transition is published;
▶Gives clarity to a plethora of available modelling options becoming increasingly relevant
Led by @cameronhepburn.bsky.social
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/most-ef...
▶Gives clarity to a plethora of available modelling options becoming increasingly relevant
Led by @cameronhepburn.bsky.social
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/most-ef...
Glad to hear you guys are finding my book useful. You can find all my papers on my website, doynefarmer.com. This includes the paper mentioned coupling an epidemiological ABM to an economic ABM with Marco Pangallo as first author. Thanks for your interest.
doynefarmer.com
August 28, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Glad to hear you guys are finding my book useful. You can find all my papers on my website, doynefarmer.com. This includes the paper mentioned coupling an epidemiological ABM to an economic ABM with Marco Pangallo as first author. Thanks for your interest.
We're in the third of four weeks of our Economic Agent-Based Models: Crossing Over the Tipping Point workshops at @sfiscience.bsky.social. Thanks @j0mrn.bsky.social and Christian Diem for helping to organize. We've had so many great speakers already!
August 19, 2025 at 3:58 PM
We're in the third of four weeks of our Economic Agent-Based Models: Crossing Over the Tipping Point workshops at @sfiscience.bsky.social. Thanks @j0mrn.bsky.social and Christian Diem for helping to organize. We've had so many great speakers already!
I will be giving the New Zealand Treasury Fiscal Policy for the Future seminar - you can find more information at www.eventbrite.co.nz/e/tgls-fisca...
TGLS: Fiscal Policy for the Future seminar - Professor Doyne Farmer
Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World
www.eventbrite.co.nz
August 13, 2025 at 3:49 PM
I will be giving the New Zealand Treasury Fiscal Policy for the Future seminar - you can find more information at www.eventbrite.co.nz/e/tgls-fisca...
My latest paper with @cameronhepburn.bsky.social and @bapeterj.bsky.social among others is now available in @oxrepjournal.bsky.social
New in @oxrepjournal.bsky.social: Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy. Which key economic questions about the net-zero transition are of interest to finance ministries and which economic methods can deliver.
academic.oup.com/oxrep/advanc...
academic.oup.com/oxrep/advanc...
Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy
Abstract. Reaching net-zero emissions will involve a structural transformation of the global economy. The transition is complicated by deep uncertainty abo
academic.oup.com
July 31, 2025 at 5:30 PM
My latest paper with @cameronhepburn.bsky.social and @bapeterj.bsky.social among others is now available in @oxrepjournal.bsky.social
Reposted by J. Doyne Farmer
Sustainable decision-making requires better foresight.
Participate in the AI for Trade Challenge and build models that anticipate international trade flows.
📅 Deadline: Oct 31, 2025
🏆 $6K in prizes
More: centerforcollectivelearning.org/aifortrade
Participate in the AI for Trade Challenge and build models that anticipate international trade flows.
📅 Deadline: Oct 31, 2025
🏆 $6K in prizes
More: centerforcollectivelearning.org/aifortrade
AI For Trade — Center for Collective Learning
centerforcollectivelearning.org
July 23, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Sustainable decision-making requires better foresight.
Participate in the AI for Trade Challenge and build models that anticipate international trade flows.
📅 Deadline: Oct 31, 2025
🏆 $6K in prizes
More: centerforcollectivelearning.org/aifortrade
Participate in the AI for Trade Challenge and build models that anticipate international trade flows.
📅 Deadline: Oct 31, 2025
🏆 $6K in prizes
More: centerforcollectivelearning.org/aifortrade