Doug Analytics
@doug-analytics.bsky.social
NFL Analytics & Graphics | wAtCh tHe FiLm
Strength of Schedule Comparison
Games against Top 10 teams*
• Patriots: 2 (Bills x2)
• Texans: 8
Games against Bottom 10 teams*
• Patriots: 10
• Texans: 4
*based on 10k season simulations
Games against Top 10 teams*
• Patriots: 2 (Bills x2)
• Texans: 8
Games against Bottom 10 teams*
• Patriots: 10
• Texans: 4
*based on 10k season simulations
November 14, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Strength of Schedule Comparison
Games against Top 10 teams*
• Patriots: 2 (Bills x2)
• Texans: 8
Games against Bottom 10 teams*
• Patriots: 10
• Texans: 4
*based on 10k season simulations
Games against Top 10 teams*
• Patriots: 2 (Bills x2)
• Texans: 8
Games against Bottom 10 teams*
• Patriots: 10
• Texans: 4
*based on 10k season simulations
Rushing Success Rates
(weeks 1-10)
The Rams run Outside Zone on just 20% of their rushes (21st most) but are successful on 65%, the highest success rate for any team by 18%(!) (2nd: DEN — 47%).
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
(weeks 1-10)
The Rams run Outside Zone on just 20% of their rushes (21st most) but are successful on 65%, the highest success rate for any team by 18%(!) (2nd: DEN — 47%).
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Rushing Success Rates
(weeks 1-10)
The Rams run Outside Zone on just 20% of their rushes (21st most) but are successful on 65%, the highest success rate for any team by 18%(!) (2nd: DEN — 47%).
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
(weeks 1-10)
The Rams run Outside Zone on just 20% of their rushes (21st most) but are successful on 65%, the highest success rate for any team by 18%(!) (2nd: DEN — 47%).
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
Reposted by Doug Analytics
Sunday's game between the Patriots and Falcons will be an interior pressure showdown featuring the top three defensive tackles in pressure rate (via @doug-analytics.bsky.social).
November 2, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Sunday's game between the Patriots and Falcons will be an interior pressure showdown featuring the top three defensive tackles in pressure rate (via @doug-analytics.bsky.social).
The Giants defense played an even mix of man and zone coverage vs Jalen Hurts.
Hurts vs man:
• 9/10
• 126 yards
• 4 TDs
• +1.55 EPA/pass
• 9.6 yards average depth of completion
Hurts vs zone:
• 6/10
• 53 yards
• -0.15 EPA/pass
• 3.1 yards average depth of completion
Hurts vs man:
• 9/10
• 126 yards
• 4 TDs
• +1.55 EPA/pass
• 9.6 yards average depth of completion
Hurts vs zone:
• 6/10
• 53 yards
• -0.15 EPA/pass
• 3.1 yards average depth of completion
October 27, 2025 at 5:37 PM
The Giants defense played an even mix of man and zone coverage vs Jalen Hurts.
Hurts vs man:
• 9/10
• 126 yards
• 4 TDs
• +1.55 EPA/pass
• 9.6 yards average depth of completion
Hurts vs zone:
• 6/10
• 53 yards
• -0.15 EPA/pass
• 3.1 yards average depth of completion
Hurts vs man:
• 9/10
• 126 yards
• 4 TDs
• +1.55 EPA/pass
• 9.6 yards average depth of completion
Hurts vs zone:
• 6/10
• 53 yards
• -0.15 EPA/pass
• 3.1 yards average depth of completion
Eagles’ designed run game vs the Giants:
• 27 rushes (none on 3rd down)
• 258 yards (most in any game this season)
• +0.49 EPA/rush (2nd-highest this season)
• 66.7% success (2nd-highest this season)
• 27 rushes (none on 3rd down)
• 258 yards (most in any game this season)
• +0.49 EPA/rush (2nd-highest this season)
• 66.7% success (2nd-highest this season)
October 27, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Eagles’ designed run game vs the Giants:
• 27 rushes (none on 3rd down)
• 258 yards (most in any game this season)
• +0.49 EPA/rush (2nd-highest this season)
• 66.7% success (2nd-highest this season)
• 27 rushes (none on 3rd down)
• 258 yards (most in any game this season)
• +0.49 EPA/rush (2nd-highest this season)
• 66.7% success (2nd-highest this season)
There have been 7 plays this season where an offense ran the ball with 26+ yards to go for a first down.
Only 2 were successful by EPA.
Both were against the Giants defense.
Only 2 were successful by EPA.
Both were against the Giants defense.
October 27, 2025 at 5:36 PM
There have been 7 plays this season where an offense ran the ball with 26+ yards to go for a first down.
Only 2 were successful by EPA.
Both were against the Giants defense.
Only 2 were successful by EPA.
Both were against the Giants defense.
How often do defenses rush or drop unexpected players?
(weeks 1-7)
If I were a defensive coordinator I would simply be in the top right
(weeks 1-7)
If I were a defensive coordinator I would simply be in the top right
October 24, 2025 at 7:41 PM
How often do defenses rush or drop unexpected players?
(weeks 1-7)
If I were a defensive coordinator I would simply be in the top right
(weeks 1-7)
If I were a defensive coordinator I would simply be in the top right
Rate and EPA/Play for QBs out of the pocket
• Joe Flacco does not like being outside the pocket
• Dart & Maye with some elite QBs 👀
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
• Joe Flacco does not like being outside the pocket
• Dart & Maye with some elite QBs 👀
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
October 24, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Rate and EPA/Play for QBs out of the pocket
• Joe Flacco does not like being outside the pocket
• Dart & Maye with some elite QBs 👀
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
• Joe Flacco does not like being outside the pocket
• Dart & Maye with some elite QBs 👀
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
Average # of Pass Rushers
(by pre-snap alignment)
The Chiefs average 4.97 pass rushers per play and send a DB every ~6 plays, both the highest rates in the league.
(by pre-snap alignment)
The Chiefs average 4.97 pass rushers per play and send a DB every ~6 plays, both the highest rates in the league.
October 23, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Average # of Pass Rushers
(by pre-snap alignment)
The Chiefs average 4.97 pass rushers per play and send a DB every ~6 plays, both the highest rates in the league.
(by pre-snap alignment)
The Chiefs average 4.97 pass rushers per play and send a DB every ~6 plays, both the highest rates in the league.
Rushing Success Rates (Weeks 1–7)
League average success rates:
• Man/Duo — 41.2%
• Outside Zone — 37.6%
• Inside Zone — 38.9%
• Power — 38.4%
• Counter — 43.1%
• QB Sneak — 72.1%
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
League average success rates:
• Man/Duo — 41.2%
• Outside Zone — 37.6%
• Inside Zone — 38.9%
• Power — 38.4%
• Counter — 43.1%
• QB Sneak — 72.1%
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Rushing Success Rates (Weeks 1–7)
League average success rates:
• Man/Duo — 41.2%
• Outside Zone — 37.6%
• Inside Zone — 38.9%
• Power — 38.4%
• Counter — 43.1%
• QB Sneak — 72.1%
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
League average success rates:
• Man/Duo — 41.2%
• Outside Zone — 37.6%
• Inside Zone — 38.9%
• Power — 38.4%
• Counter — 43.1%
• QB Sneak — 72.1%
Data: @ftnfantasy.com
Time to Throw DEEP and SHORT
(weeks 1-7 pre-MNF)
Every QB has a higher average Time to Throw on attempts 20+ air yards than <10 air yards.
Caleb Williams TTT
• 20+ air yards: 4.60s
• <10 air yards: 2.72s
(weeks 1-7 pre-MNF)
Every QB has a higher average Time to Throw on attempts 20+ air yards than <10 air yards.
Caleb Williams TTT
• 20+ air yards: 4.60s
• <10 air yards: 2.72s
October 22, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Time to Throw DEEP and SHORT
(weeks 1-7 pre-MNF)
Every QB has a higher average Time to Throw on attempts 20+ air yards than <10 air yards.
Caleb Williams TTT
• 20+ air yards: 4.60s
• <10 air yards: 2.72s
(weeks 1-7 pre-MNF)
Every QB has a higher average Time to Throw on attempts 20+ air yards than <10 air yards.
Caleb Williams TTT
• 20+ air yards: 4.60s
• <10 air yards: 2.72s
Giants Big 4 Snap Combinations
(weeks 1-5)
• All 4 together: 25% of snaps
• At least 3 of 4: 69%
• At least 2 of 4: 93%
Burns, Thibodeaux, Carter
- All 3 on field: 46% pressure rate
- 2 of 3 on field: 32%
(weeks 1-5)
• All 4 together: 25% of snaps
• At least 3 of 4: 69%
• At least 2 of 4: 93%
Burns, Thibodeaux, Carter
- All 3 on field: 46% pressure rate
- 2 of 3 on field: 32%
October 9, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Giants Big 4 Snap Combinations
(weeks 1-5)
• All 4 together: 25% of snaps
• At least 3 of 4: 69%
• At least 2 of 4: 93%
Burns, Thibodeaux, Carter
- All 3 on field: 46% pressure rate
- 2 of 3 on field: 32%
(weeks 1-5)
• All 4 together: 25% of snaps
• At least 3 of 4: 69%
• At least 2 of 4: 93%
Burns, Thibodeaux, Carter
- All 3 on field: 46% pressure rate
- 2 of 3 on field: 32%
The Eagles have reached the RedZone on just 24.5% of drives (26th), but have scored a TD on all but one of those trips (92.3%, 1st)
The Giants have reached the RedZone on 37.3% of drives (8th), but have scored a TD on only 31.6% of those trips (32nd)
The Giants have reached the RedZone on 37.3% of drives (8th), but have scored a TD on only 31.6% of those trips (32nd)
October 9, 2025 at 5:17 PM
The Eagles have reached the RedZone on just 24.5% of drives (26th), but have scored a TD on all but one of those trips (92.3%, 1st)
The Giants have reached the RedZone on 37.3% of drives (8th), but have scored a TD on only 31.6% of those trips (32nd)
The Giants have reached the RedZone on 37.3% of drives (8th), but have scored a TD on only 31.6% of those trips (32nd)
Play-Action % & Motion at Snap %
(weeks 1-5)
Some good offenses in the top right
Data charted by @ftnfantasy.com
(weeks 1-5)
Some good offenses in the top right
Data charted by @ftnfantasy.com
October 9, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Play-Action % & Motion at Snap %
(weeks 1-5)
Some good offenses in the top right
Data charted by @ftnfantasy.com
(weeks 1-5)
Some good offenses in the top right
Data charted by @ftnfantasy.com
Defensive Line Stunts
NYG usage (pressure % with stunts):
• Week 1: 3% (0%)
• Week 2: 7% (25%)
• Week 3: 10% (50%)
• Week 4: 23% (70%!)
• Week 5: 16% (0%)
NYG usage (pressure % with stunts):
• Week 1: 3% (0%)
• Week 2: 7% (25%)
• Week 3: 10% (50%)
• Week 4: 23% (70%!)
• Week 5: 16% (0%)
October 9, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Defensive Line Stunts
NYG usage (pressure % with stunts):
• Week 1: 3% (0%)
• Week 2: 7% (25%)
• Week 3: 10% (50%)
• Week 4: 23% (70%!)
• Week 5: 16% (0%)
NYG usage (pressure % with stunts):
• Week 1: 3% (0%)
• Week 2: 7% (25%)
• Week 3: 10% (50%)
• Week 4: 23% (70%!)
• Week 5: 16% (0%)
Offensive Rushing Success Rates
(broken down by run concept)
Klayton Adams must be pretty good huh
Run concepts charted by @ftnfantasy.com
(broken down by run concept)
Klayton Adams must be pretty good huh
Run concepts charted by @ftnfantasy.com
October 8, 2025 at 11:13 PM
Offensive Rushing Success Rates
(broken down by run concept)
Klayton Adams must be pretty good huh
Run concepts charted by @ftnfantasy.com
(broken down by run concept)
Klayton Adams must be pretty good huh
Run concepts charted by @ftnfantasy.com
Receiving Yards by Target Location
Puka Nacua leads the NFL in receiving yards down the seams (435), and only 3 WRs have more total receiving yards.
Puka Nacua leads the NFL in receiving yards down the seams (435), and only 3 WRs have more total receiving yards.
October 8, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Receiving Yards by Target Location
Puka Nacua leads the NFL in receiving yards down the seams (435), and only 3 WRs have more total receiving yards.
Puka Nacua leads the NFL in receiving yards down the seams (435), and only 3 WRs have more total receiving yards.
Based on NGS player tracking at handoff, the Eagles have the lowest expected rushing yards per carry in the NFL (3.18 xYPC). Defenses have stacked the box with 8+ defenders on 30.3% of their runs, 4th highest in the league.
The Giants average 6.1 men in the box (2nd fewest)
The Giants average 6.1 men in the box (2nd fewest)
October 8, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Based on NGS player tracking at handoff, the Eagles have the lowest expected rushing yards per carry in the NFL (3.18 xYPC). Defenses have stacked the box with 8+ defenders on 30.3% of their runs, 4th highest in the league.
The Giants average 6.1 men in the box (2nd fewest)
The Giants average 6.1 men in the box (2nd fewest)
Despite his rate of <10 air yard attempts dropping each week, Jalen Hurts has still targeted receivers under 10 air yards at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL this season (72%).
The Giants defense has allowed the 4th fewest yards/attempt on passes under 10 air yards.
The Giants defense has allowed the 4th fewest yards/attempt on passes under 10 air yards.
October 8, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Despite his rate of <10 air yard attempts dropping each week, Jalen Hurts has still targeted receivers under 10 air yards at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL this season (72%).
The Giants defense has allowed the 4th fewest yards/attempt on passes under 10 air yards.
The Giants defense has allowed the 4th fewest yards/attempt on passes under 10 air yards.
Only 6.7% of Jaxson Dart’s pass attempts (4 of 60) have gone to receivers with less than 1 yard of separation, the lowest rate among QBs with 40+ attempts, per NextGenStats.
The Eagles defense has forced tight-window throws on 24% of opponent attempts, 2nd highest in the NFL.
The Eagles defense has forced tight-window throws on 24% of opponent attempts, 2nd highest in the NFL.
October 8, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Only 6.7% of Jaxson Dart’s pass attempts (4 of 60) have gone to receivers with less than 1 yard of separation, the lowest rate among QBs with 40+ attempts, per NextGenStats.
The Eagles defense has forced tight-window throws on 24% of opponent attempts, 2nd highest in the NFL.
The Eagles defense has forced tight-window throws on 24% of opponent attempts, 2nd highest in the NFL.
Bobby Okereke has 48 tackles, 4th most among linebackers. Of those, 21 (44%) have resulted in negative EPA, per NextGenStats.
His 21 run stops on 121 run defense snaps (17.4%) is the highest rate among LBs with 50+ run snaps.
His 21 run stops on 121 run defense snaps (17.4%) is the highest rate among LBs with 50+ run snaps.
October 8, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Bobby Okereke has 48 tackles, 4th most among linebackers. Of those, 21 (44%) have resulted in negative EPA, per NextGenStats.
His 21 run stops on 121 run defense snaps (17.4%) is the highest rate among LBs with 50+ run snaps.
His 21 run stops on 121 run defense snaps (17.4%) is the highest rate among LBs with 50+ run snaps.
The Texans defense is making QBs hurry:
• 2.59s avg time to throw (fastest vs any defense)
• 2.42s avg time to pressure (fastest in NFL)
• Opponents throw 0.15s quicker than their season average (largest gap in league)
• 2.59s avg time to throw (fastest vs any defense)
• 2.42s avg time to pressure (fastest in NFL)
• Opponents throw 0.15s quicker than their season average (largest gap in league)
October 8, 2025 at 4:57 PM
The Texans defense is making QBs hurry:
• 2.59s avg time to throw (fastest vs any defense)
• 2.42s avg time to pressure (fastest in NFL)
• Opponents throw 0.15s quicker than their season average (largest gap in league)
• 2.59s avg time to throw (fastest vs any defense)
• 2.42s avg time to pressure (fastest in NFL)
• Opponents throw 0.15s quicker than their season average (largest gap in league)
Giants & Eagles weekly run concepts charted by @ftnfantasy.com
October 8, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Giants & Eagles weekly run concepts charted by @ftnfantasy.com
Which CBs get picked on the most?
(weeks 1-5)
Based on target rate and catch rate over expected as the nearest defender
(weeks 1-5)
Based on target rate and catch rate over expected as the nearest defender
October 8, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Which CBs get picked on the most?
(weeks 1-5)
Based on target rate and catch rate over expected as the nearest defender
(weeks 1-5)
Based on target rate and catch rate over expected as the nearest defender
Pressure % and Time to Pressure
(DT Alignment only - NGS)
(DT Alignment only - NGS)
October 8, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Pressure % and Time to Pressure
(DT Alignment only - NGS)
(DT Alignment only - NGS)