David Munro
@dmunro.bsky.social
Academic Economist, Middlebury College
Thanks for the update! Weird that the numbers between you and Cawley are so different. Some single postings seem to be posting for multiple position... but I would be surprised if this accounts for the difference (maybe save, e.g., central banks hiring many?) Here are two examples:
November 24, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Thanks for the update! Weird that the numbers between you and Cawley are so different. Some single postings seem to be posting for multiple position... but I would be surprised if this accounts for the difference (maybe save, e.g., central banks hiring many?) Here are two examples:
And the Insured Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly to 1.26%. Overall unemployment picture during the shutdown points towards a gradually weakening labor market. Hopefully signing off! 🫡 @josephpolitano.bsky.social @estruby.bsky.social
November 14, 2025 at 3:34 PM
And the Insured Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly to 1.26%. Overall unemployment picture during the shutdown points towards a gradually weakening labor market. Hopefully signing off! 🫡 @josephpolitano.bsky.social @estruby.bsky.social
Initial Claims (week ending Nov. 8th) up 12k or 5.6% (SA) and up 22k or 10% (NSA).
November 14, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Initial Claims (week ending Nov. 8th) up 12k or 5.6% (SA) and up 22k or 10% (NSA).
OMG, now I'm just thinking about all the future headaches this causes in terms of having missing data in a time series...
November 6, 2025 at 6:25 PM
OMG, now I'm just thinking about all the future headaches this causes in terms of having missing data in a time series...
And the Insured Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly: 1.24 to 1.26% over the week. @josephpolitano.bsky.social
October 31, 2025 at 1:11 PM
And the Insured Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly: 1.24 to 1.26% over the week. @josephpolitano.bsky.social
Initial claims down slightly: 3k or 1.4% (NSA), 3k or 1.6% (SA). Thus, the rise in insured unemployment likely driven from lower job finding (people hanging out in the claims pool longer) not new layoffs.
October 31, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Initial claims down slightly: 3k or 1.4% (NSA), 3k or 1.6% (SA). Thus, the rise in insured unemployment likely driven from lower job finding (people hanging out in the claims pool longer) not new layoffs.
New this week, Insured Unemployment Rate (CC/cov. emp.) (worth noting cov. emp. is, by construction, a pretty lagging measure of employment). Stayed relatively constant week-to-week (around ~1.25%), but has been trending upwards over the past year. @josephpolitano.bsky.social @mchinn.bsky.social
October 24, 2025 at 3:15 PM
New this week, Insured Unemployment Rate (CC/cov. emp.) (worth noting cov. emp. is, by construction, a pretty lagging measure of employment). Stayed relatively constant week-to-week (around ~1.25%), but has been trending upwards over the past year. @josephpolitano.bsky.social @mchinn.bsky.social
Initial Claims also pretty steady: -5k or -2.7% (NSA). -8.5k or -4% (SA).
October 24, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Initial Claims also pretty steady: -5k or -2.7% (NSA). -8.5k or -4% (SA).
Agreed. High interest rates, economy slowing, the growth-y edge of the economy (tech) is softening... not a new phenomenon.
October 21, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Agreed. High interest rates, economy slowing, the growth-y edge of the economy (tech) is softening... not a new phenomenon.
Initial claims (again, excl. AZ, MA, NV, TN), ticked up: increased 12.5K (SA), or about 6% increase, but nothing too crazy.
@josephpolitano.bsky.social we're not totally in the dark about the US labor market!
@josephpolitano.bsky.social we're not totally in the dark about the US labor market!
October 17, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Initial claims (again, excl. AZ, MA, NV, TN), ticked up: increased 12.5K (SA), or about 6% increase, but nothing too crazy.
@josephpolitano.bsky.social we're not totally in the dark about the US labor market!
@josephpolitano.bsky.social we're not totally in the dark about the US labor market!
We didn't walk around with our VHS recorders filming ourselves!... did we?
October 13, 2025 at 6:01 PM
We didn't walk around with our VHS recorders filming ourselves!... did we?
Similar to the norm of filming oneself in public without a trace of discomfiture or recognition that other things are going on around you, lol. Burn it all down! (old man yells at cloud)
October 13, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Similar to the norm of filming oneself in public without a trace of discomfiture or recognition that other things are going on around you, lol. Burn it all down! (old man yells at cloud)
And here's the same for initial claims. Again, relatively steady.
October 10, 2025 at 1:58 PM
And here's the same for initial claims. Again, relatively steady.
My second rogue jobs report (compiled from state claims). Here's insured unemployment (excl. HI and MA (no release yet)) and NSA and SA (weekly SA is giving me a bit of a headache, but anyway). Not much change.
October 10, 2025 at 1:56 PM
My second rogue jobs report (compiled from state claims). Here's insured unemployment (excl. HI and MA (no release yet)) and NSA and SA (weekly SA is giving me a bit of a headache, but anyway). Not much change.