David Keller, CMT
@dkellercmt.bsky.social
Market Behaviorist | President @ Sierra Alpha Research | Host @ Market Misbehavior podcast | CNBC Contributor | Former StockCharts, Fidelity, Bloomberg | For educational purposes only.
#Bitcoin $GBTC teasing the "red light" portion of our traffic light setup with a break below the 200-day MA. For a pattern like this, I'd look for a close below the 200-day and then confirmation with some follow-through to signal a bearish configuration.
November 4, 2025 at 6:04 PM
#Bitcoin $GBTC teasing the "red light" portion of our traffic light setup with a break below the 200-day MA. For a pattern like this, I'd look for a close below the 200-day and then confirmation with some follow-through to signal a bearish configuration.
$SPX Bullish Percent Index now below 50% for the first time since the April market low. Market has undeniably bad breadth here...
November 4, 2025 at 5:06 PM
$SPX Bullish Percent Index now below 50% for the first time since the April market low. Market has undeniably bad breadth here...
Only 39% of $SPX members currently remain above their 50-day moving average. Can the major indexes keep going higher, despite this crazy weak breadth? Apparently so...
November 4, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Only 39% of $SPX members currently remain above their 50-day moving average. Can the major indexes keep going higher, despite this crazy weak breadth? Apparently so...
Thanks to Mike Dickson @ Horizon Investments for a fantastic interview on the Market Misbehavior podcast! We talked top heavy benchmarks, building factor models, and why the path of returns matters as much as the destination. Solid quant insights and market perspective!
November 3, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Thanks to Mike Dickson @ Horizon Investments for a fantastic interview on the Market Misbehavior podcast! We talked top heavy benchmarks, building factor models, and why the path of returns matters as much as the destination. Solid quant insights and market perspective!
Not sure how the breadth could look much worse than this. Every new ATH for $SPX since June has been marked by less S&P 500 members regaining their 50-day moving average. "Healthy bull markets are marked by an expansion in breadth."
October 31, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Not sure how the breadth could look much worse than this. Every new ATH for $SPX since June has been marked by less S&P 500 members regaining their 50-day moving average. "Healthy bull markets are marked by an expansion in breadth."
I'm seeing this as the second Hindenburg Omen signal in October. And that's not bullish for $SPX $QQQ! Not the world's most ideal timing tool, but does tell me to diligently look for signs of distribution. Discussed in detail on yesterday's show: www.youtube.com/live/1OjdBLk...
October 31, 2025 at 4:02 PM
I'm seeing this as the second Hindenburg Omen signal in October. And that's not bullish for $SPX $QQQ! Not the world's most ideal timing tool, but does tell me to diligently look for signs of distribution. Discussed in detail on yesterday's show: www.youtube.com/live/1OjdBLk...
Behold the powerful "traffic light" approach applied to $V:
$V over $355 = green light
$V between 335-355 = yellow light
$V below 335 = red light
Don't swing just to swing. Wait for the good pitches! ⚾️
$V over $355 = green light
$V between 335-355 = yellow light
$V below 335 = red light
Don't swing just to swing. Wait for the good pitches! ⚾️
October 30, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Behold the powerful "traffic light" approach applied to $V:
$V over $355 = green light
$V between 335-355 = yellow light
$V below 335 = red light
Don't swing just to swing. Wait for the good pitches! ⚾️
$V over $355 = green light
$V between 335-355 = yellow light
$V below 335 = red light
Don't swing just to swing. Wait for the good pitches! ⚾️
"Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average." Almost there, $UNH. Keep fighting!
October 29, 2025 at 7:06 PM
"Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average." Almost there, $UNH. Keep fighting!
At some point, one of these trends has to give. Either the breadth starts to improve as more stocks participate in the uptrend phase, or $SPX drops as almost everything but the Mag7 struggles. What's the call?
October 29, 2025 at 6:06 PM
At some point, one of these trends has to give. Either the breadth starts to improve as more stocks participate in the uptrend phase, or $SPX drops as almost everything but the Mag7 struggles. What's the call?
Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast features Tom Atkinson of FX Evolution. We discussed hard-won lessons on risk management, sector exposure), scaling into winners, avoiding FOMO, and using market cycles and macro “pillars” (population, innovation, debt). Cheers!
October 18, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast features Tom Atkinson of FX Evolution. We discussed hard-won lessons on risk management, sector exposure), scaling into winners, avoiding FOMO, and using market cycles and macro “pillars” (population, innovation, debt). Cheers!
New investment strategy: Any Ticker Starting With "W"
Walmart $WMT... new all-time high!
Wells Fargo $WFC... new all-time high!
Waste Management $WM...
Wait.
Never mind.
Walmart $WMT... new all-time high!
Wells Fargo $WFC... new all-time high!
Waste Management $WM...
Wait.
Never mind.
October 16, 2025 at 12:06 PM
New investment strategy: Any Ticker Starting With "W"
Walmart $WMT... new all-time high!
Wells Fargo $WFC... new all-time high!
Waste Management $WM...
Wait.
Never mind.
Walmart $WMT... new all-time high!
Wells Fargo $WFC... new all-time high!
Waste Management $WM...
Wait.
Never mind.
Say what you want about the bull market never ending... but I'm not sure $AMZN breaking below its 200-day moving average would be a check in the "strong bull market evidence" column......
October 15, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Say what you want about the bull market never ending... but I'm not sure $AMZN breaking below its 200-day moving average would be a check in the "strong bull market evidence" column......
One of the key bullet points on my Market Top Checklist is outperformance from defensive sectors. Utilities $XLU has usually been my go-to, and it's the top performing $SPX sector for the last month! Now other defensive sectors starting to outperform...
October 15, 2025 at 6:06 PM
One of the key bullet points on my Market Top Checklist is outperformance from defensive sectors. Utilities $XLU has usually been my go-to, and it's the top performing $SPX sector for the last month! Now other defensive sectors starting to outperform...
🚨 HINDENBURG OMEN ALERT 🚨
Hindenburg Omen fired an initial signal on Friday. This macro technical indicator combines three factors:
1. Market in a confirmed uptrend.
2. A decent number of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows.
3. Breadth turns negative.
If we get a second signal in the next month 👀
Hindenburg Omen fired an initial signal on Friday. This macro technical indicator combines three factors:
1. Market in a confirmed uptrend.
2. A decent number of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows.
3. Breadth turns negative.
If we get a second signal in the next month 👀
October 14, 2025 at 6:06 PM
🚨 HINDENBURG OMEN ALERT 🚨
Hindenburg Omen fired an initial signal on Friday. This macro technical indicator combines three factors:
1. Market in a confirmed uptrend.
2. A decent number of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows.
3. Breadth turns negative.
If we get a second signal in the next month 👀
Hindenburg Omen fired an initial signal on Friday. This macro technical indicator combines three factors:
1. Market in a confirmed uptrend.
2. A decent number of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows.
3. Breadth turns negative.
If we get a second signal in the next month 👀
Chaikin Money Flow has been holding above the zero level this week, implying the markets are still in an accumulation phase. But the bearish divergence in recent weeks is very similar to previous market tops. $SPX
October 14, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Chaikin Money Flow has been holding above the zero level this week, implying the markets are still in an accumulation phase. But the bearish divergence in recent weeks is very similar to previous market tops. $SPX
How bullish do I want to be when less than half of $SPX members remain above their 50-day moving averages? 🤔
October 14, 2025 at 4:08 PM
How bullish do I want to be when less than half of $SPX members remain above their 50-day moving averages? 🤔
It's time again for a "choose your own adventure" exercise. Review four potential future paths for $SPX, vote for the one you see as most likely, review what others are thinking! $SPX 7000? $SPX 5500?.........
youtu.be/69VQuHFIH8w
youtu.be/69VQuHFIH8w
October 10, 2025 at 5:21 PM
It's time again for a "choose your own adventure" exercise. Review four potential future paths for $SPX, vote for the one you see as most likely, review what others are thinking! $SPX 7000? $SPX 5500?.........
youtu.be/69VQuHFIH8w
youtu.be/69VQuHFIH8w
Proud to announce your Amazon cheatsheet:
🟢 $AMZN > 240 = Breakout -> onward and ever upward!
🟡 $AMZN between 214-240 = Consolidation -> sit on hands
🔴 $AMZN < 214 = Breakdown -> price gap around 200
🟢 $AMZN > 240 = Breakout -> onward and ever upward!
🟡 $AMZN between 214-240 = Consolidation -> sit on hands
🔴 $AMZN < 214 = Breakdown -> price gap around 200
October 8, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Proud to announce your Amazon cheatsheet:
🟢 $AMZN > 240 = Breakout -> onward and ever upward!
🟡 $AMZN between 214-240 = Consolidation -> sit on hands
🔴 $AMZN < 214 = Breakdown -> price gap around 200
🟢 $AMZN > 240 = Breakout -> onward and ever upward!
🟡 $AMZN between 214-240 = Consolidation -> sit on hands
🔴 $AMZN < 214 = Breakdown -> price gap around 200
#Bitcoin pulling back from key resistance around 123-124K. Bearish candle patterns marked the July and August peaks. Until we get a confirmed move above this resistance, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation range. Upside targets unlocked with a pop above 124K!
October 8, 2025 at 5:05 PM
#Bitcoin pulling back from key resistance around 123-124K. Bearish candle patterns marked the July and August peaks. Until we get a confirmed move above this resistance, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation range. Upside targets unlocked with a pop above 124K!
#Gold first became overbought at the end of August. Since becoming overbought, gold is up another 13%. Overbought is not necessarily a bad thing. "Overbought means up a lot."
October 8, 2025 at 4:07 PM
#Gold first became overbought at the end of August. Since becoming overbought, gold is up another 13%. Overbought is not necessarily a bad thing. "Overbought means up a lot."
McClellan Oscillator remains below zero, and has been in this state since mid-September. These latest new ATH for $SPX have been marked by a lack of breadth support. Can the market go higher with weaker breadth? Of course. Would it be better if there was broader support? It would.
October 8, 2025 at 3:05 PM
McClellan Oscillator remains below zero, and has been in this state since mid-September. These latest new ATH for $SPX have been marked by a lack of breadth support. Can the market go higher with weaker breadth? Of course. Would it be better if there was broader support? It would.
Hey there, mindful investors! Made it back from Michigan yesterday- here's a pic from Family Weekend. Our flights were delayed so unfortunately couldn't get a show out yesterday. Will be back and better than ever today and we go live at 5pm ET. Looking forward to talking charts with you again! D
October 7, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Hey there, mindful investors! Made it back from Michigan yesterday- here's a pic from Family Weekend. Our flights were delayed so unfortunately couldn't get a show out yesterday. Will be back and better than ever today and we go live at 5pm ET. Looking forward to talking charts with you again! D
Our next FREE webcast will teach you trend-following techniques from the ground up. Trend Following 101: Learn the Rules, Follow the Moves. Wednesday 9/24/25 1:00pm ET. Sign up for this FREE webcast at marketmisbehavior.com/trend!
September 19, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Our next FREE webcast will teach you trend-following techniques from the ground up. Trend Following 101: Learn the Rules, Follow the Moves. Wednesday 9/24/25 1:00pm ET. Sign up for this FREE webcast at marketmisbehavior.com/trend!
$META has been stalled out since the gap higher on earnings at the end of July. As long as price holds 740, this appears to be a test of support after a breakout. But a move below the 50-day MA and support at 740 would imply further potential downside!
September 18, 2025 at 12:06 PM
$META has been stalled out since the gap higher on earnings at the end of July. As long as price holds 740, this appears to be a test of support after a breakout. But a move below the 50-day MA and support at 740 would imply further potential downside!
#Bitcoin has certainly stalled out, but as long as it holds 105K, I'm inclined to consider this a short-term pullback within a long-term uptrend. All bets are off if price breaks Fibonacci support ~104K and 200-day moving average ~103K. Resistance often becomes support!
September 17, 2025 at 7:04 PM
#Bitcoin has certainly stalled out, but as long as it holds 105K, I'm inclined to consider this a short-term pullback within a long-term uptrend. All bets are off if price breaks Fibonacci support ~104K and 200-day moving average ~103K. Resistance often becomes support!