David Keller, CMT
@dkellercmt.bsky.social
Market Behaviorist | President @ Sierra Alpha Research | Host @ Market Misbehavior podcast | CNBC Contributor | Former StockCharts, Fidelity, Bloomberg | For educational purposes only.
Had an awesome conversation with Jerry Robinson of FollowTheMoney.com about trend following, position trading, diversification, and mindful investing.
We cover tools, timeframes & turning down the noise.
🎧 Watch/Listen: youtu.be/hjF-mobzrWs
We cover tools, timeframes & turning down the noise.
🎧 Watch/Listen: youtu.be/hjF-mobzrWs
Trend Following Secrets w/ Jerry Robinson: Follow the Money, Not the Noise
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 10, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Had an awesome conversation with Jerry Robinson of FollowTheMoney.com about trend following, position trading, diversification, and mindful investing.
We cover tools, timeframes & turning down the noise.
🎧 Watch/Listen: youtu.be/hjF-mobzrWs
We cover tools, timeframes & turning down the noise.
🎧 Watch/Listen: youtu.be/hjF-mobzrWs
Choppy week for the markets, but Friday brought a twist. The S&P 500 dipped under its 50-day, then clawed back to finish positive. A good sign—or just a head fake? Full thoughts on CHART THIS: youtu.be/Q_9yTjVd__Q
S&P 500 Rebounds Above 50-Day After Volatile Week | CHART THIS with Dave Keller (Nov 7, 2025)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 7, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Choppy week for the markets, but Friday brought a twist. The S&P 500 dipped under its 50-day, then clawed back to finish positive. A good sign—or just a head fake? Full thoughts on CHART THIS: youtu.be/Q_9yTjVd__Q
Reposted by David Keller, CMT
We really don’t want these lines to get much closer.
(via FEDWATCH) 👀
(via FEDWATCH) 👀
November 7, 2025 at 7:10 PM
We really don’t want these lines to get much closer.
(via FEDWATCH) 👀
(via FEDWATCH) 👀
Most investors chase price. Steven Bavaria says focus on income! In our latest Market Misbehavior podcast episode, he shares how his “Income Factory” approach builds steady returns through credit, yield & reinvestment. 🎧 Watch here: youtu.be/doYlxF56rRY
Steven Bavaria on The “Income Factory”: How to Build Steady Returns in Any Market
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 7, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Most investors chase price. Steven Bavaria says focus on income! In our latest Market Misbehavior podcast episode, he shares how his “Income Factory” approach builds steady returns through credit, yield & reinvestment. 🎧 Watch here: youtu.be/doYlxF56rRY
Big intraday swings again today. Stocks up early, then fade into the close. Are institutions quietly selling into strength? Let’s chart it out together 👉 CHART THIS: youtu.be/UA1admDqun8
Late-Day Selloff But Semiconductors Surge | CHART THIS with Dave Keller (Nov 5, 2025)
In this midweek edition of CHART THIS, host Dave Keller recaps a volatile Wednesday session as stocks recovered early losses before fading into the close. Despite the S&P 500 and NASDAQ finishing in…
youtu.be
November 5, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Big intraday swings again today. Stocks up early, then fade into the close. Are institutions quietly selling into strength? Let’s chart it out together 👉 CHART THIS: youtu.be/UA1admDqun8
#Bitcoin $GBTC teasing the "red light" portion of our traffic light setup with a break below the 200-day MA. For a pattern like this, I'd look for a close below the 200-day and then confirmation with some follow-through to signal a bearish configuration.
November 4, 2025 at 6:04 PM
#Bitcoin $GBTC teasing the "red light" portion of our traffic light setup with a break below the 200-day MA. For a pattern like this, I'd look for a close below the 200-day and then confirmation with some follow-through to signal a bearish configuration.
$SPX Bullish Percent Index now below 50% for the first time since the April market low. Market has undeniably bad breadth here...
November 4, 2025 at 5:06 PM
$SPX Bullish Percent Index now below 50% for the first time since the April market low. Market has undeniably bad breadth here...
We're going live this Thursday 11/6 for TICKER TANTRUM- a live Q&A featuring your tickers, my charts, and lots of great insights on using technical analysis to identify opportunities and manage risk. Should be fun! marketmisbehavior.com/ticker
Ticker Tantrum: Live Q&A and You Choose the Tickers!
Dave hosts a LIVE Q&A on Thursday, November 6th 2025. Drop your tickers into the live chat and Dave will review the charts, identify key levels and signals, and share plenty of insights and education...
marketmisbehavior.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:24 PM
We're going live this Thursday 11/6 for TICKER TANTRUM- a live Q&A featuring your tickers, my charts, and lots of great insights on using technical analysis to identify opportunities and manage risk. Should be fun! marketmisbehavior.com/ticker
Only 39% of $SPX members currently remain above their 50-day moving average. Can the major indexes keep going higher, despite this crazy weak breadth? Apparently so...
November 4, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Only 39% of $SPX members currently remain above their 50-day moving average. Can the major indexes keep going higher, despite this crazy weak breadth? Apparently so...
Thanks to Mike Dickson @ Horizon Investments for a fantastic interview on the Market Misbehavior podcast! We talked top heavy benchmarks, building factor models, and why the path of returns matters as much as the destination. Solid quant insights and market perspective!
November 3, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Thanks to Mike Dickson @ Horizon Investments for a fantastic interview on the Market Misbehavior podcast! We talked top heavy benchmarks, building factor models, and why the path of returns matters as much as the destination. Solid quant insights and market perspective!
Not sure how the breadth could look much worse than this. Every new ATH for $SPX since June has been marked by less S&P 500 members regaining their 50-day moving average. "Healthy bull markets are marked by an expansion in breadth."
October 31, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Not sure how the breadth could look much worse than this. Every new ATH for $SPX since June has been marked by less S&P 500 members regaining their 50-day moving average. "Healthy bull markets are marked by an expansion in breadth."
I'm seeing this as the second Hindenburg Omen signal in October. And that's not bullish for $SPX $QQQ! Not the world's most ideal timing tool, but does tell me to diligently look for signs of distribution. Discussed in detail on yesterday's show: www.youtube.com/live/1OjdBLk...
October 31, 2025 at 4:02 PM
I'm seeing this as the second Hindenburg Omen signal in October. And that's not bullish for $SPX $QQQ! Not the world's most ideal timing tool, but does tell me to diligently look for signs of distribution. Discussed in detail on yesterday's show: www.youtube.com/live/1OjdBLk...
We're going live at 5pm ET / 2pm PT on our YouTube channel for a market recap.
Topics to include:
* Risk-off move for the $SPX
* Mag7 earnings causing all the disruption $AAPL $AMZN
* The Hindenburg Omen firing up again!
Don't miss it. bit.ly/MarketMisbeh...
Topics to include:
* Risk-off move for the $SPX
* Mag7 earnings causing all the disruption $AAPL $AMZN
* The Hindenburg Omen firing up again!
Don't miss it. bit.ly/MarketMisbeh...
Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC. Former Fidelity, StockCharts, Bloomberg, CMT Association. I help active investors and financial advisors make more informed investment…
bit.ly
October 30, 2025 at 8:51 PM
We're going live at 5pm ET / 2pm PT on our YouTube channel for a market recap.
Topics to include:
* Risk-off move for the $SPX
* Mag7 earnings causing all the disruption $AAPL $AMZN
* The Hindenburg Omen firing up again!
Don't miss it. bit.ly/MarketMisbeh...
Topics to include:
* Risk-off move for the $SPX
* Mag7 earnings causing all the disruption $AAPL $AMZN
* The Hindenburg Omen firing up again!
Don't miss it. bit.ly/MarketMisbeh...
$SPX is hovering near record highs — but the real story lies beneath the surface. Time to break down three key charts — Alphabet ($GOOGL), Nvidia ($NVDA), and Meta ($META) — to uncover what they’re telling us about where the market is heading next!
youtu.be/YwDTyErMjz0
youtu.be/YwDTyErMjz0
Can Big Tech Keep the Market Rally Alive? | GOOGL, NVDA & META Charts Explained
🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist
🎯 Upgrade…
youtu.be
October 30, 2025 at 5:22 PM
$SPX is hovering near record highs — but the real story lies beneath the surface. Time to break down three key charts — Alphabet ($GOOGL), Nvidia ($NVDA), and Meta ($META) — to uncover what they’re telling us about where the market is heading next!
youtu.be/YwDTyErMjz0
youtu.be/YwDTyErMjz0
Behold the powerful "traffic light" approach applied to $V:
$V over $355 = green light
$V between 335-355 = yellow light
$V below 335 = red light
Don't swing just to swing. Wait for the good pitches! ⚾️
$V over $355 = green light
$V between 335-355 = yellow light
$V below 335 = red light
Don't swing just to swing. Wait for the good pitches! ⚾️
October 30, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Behold the powerful "traffic light" approach applied to $V:
$V over $355 = green light
$V between 335-355 = yellow light
$V below 335 = red light
Don't swing just to swing. Wait for the good pitches! ⚾️
$V over $355 = green light
$V between 335-355 = yellow light
$V below 335 = red light
Don't swing just to swing. Wait for the good pitches! ⚾️
"Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average." Almost there, $UNH. Keep fighting!
October 29, 2025 at 7:06 PM
"Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average." Almost there, $UNH. Keep fighting!
At some point, one of these trends has to give. Either the breadth starts to improve as more stocks participate in the uptrend phase, or $SPX drops as almost everything but the Mag7 struggles. What's the call?
October 29, 2025 at 6:06 PM
At some point, one of these trends has to give. Either the breadth starts to improve as more stocks participate in the uptrend phase, or $SPX drops as almost everything but the Mag7 struggles. What's the call?
Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast features Tom Atkinson of FX Evolution. We discussed hard-won lessons on risk management, sector exposure), scaling into winners, avoiding FOMO, and using market cycles and macro “pillars” (population, innovation, debt). Cheers!
October 18, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast features Tom Atkinson of FX Evolution. We discussed hard-won lessons on risk management, sector exposure), scaling into winners, avoiding FOMO, and using market cycles and macro “pillars” (population, innovation, debt). Cheers!
New investment strategy: Any Ticker Starting With "W"
Walmart $WMT... new all-time high!
Wells Fargo $WFC... new all-time high!
Waste Management $WM...
Wait.
Never mind.
Walmart $WMT... new all-time high!
Wells Fargo $WFC... new all-time high!
Waste Management $WM...
Wait.
Never mind.
October 16, 2025 at 12:06 PM
New investment strategy: Any Ticker Starting With "W"
Walmart $WMT... new all-time high!
Wells Fargo $WFC... new all-time high!
Waste Management $WM...
Wait.
Never mind.
Walmart $WMT... new all-time high!
Wells Fargo $WFC... new all-time high!
Waste Management $WM...
Wait.
Never mind.
Say what you want about the bull market never ending... but I'm not sure $AMZN breaking below its 200-day moving average would be a check in the "strong bull market evidence" column......
October 15, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Say what you want about the bull market never ending... but I'm not sure $AMZN breaking below its 200-day moving average would be a check in the "strong bull market evidence" column......
One of the key bullet points on my Market Top Checklist is outperformance from defensive sectors. Utilities $XLU has usually been my go-to, and it's the top performing $SPX sector for the last month! Now other defensive sectors starting to outperform...
October 15, 2025 at 6:06 PM
One of the key bullet points on my Market Top Checklist is outperformance from defensive sectors. Utilities $XLU has usually been my go-to, and it's the top performing $SPX sector for the last month! Now other defensive sectors starting to outperform...
🚨 HINDENBURG OMEN ALERT 🚨
Hindenburg Omen fired an initial signal on Friday. This macro technical indicator combines three factors:
1. Market in a confirmed uptrend.
2. A decent number of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows.
3. Breadth turns negative.
If we get a second signal in the next month 👀
Hindenburg Omen fired an initial signal on Friday. This macro technical indicator combines three factors:
1. Market in a confirmed uptrend.
2. A decent number of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows.
3. Breadth turns negative.
If we get a second signal in the next month 👀
October 14, 2025 at 6:06 PM
🚨 HINDENBURG OMEN ALERT 🚨
Hindenburg Omen fired an initial signal on Friday. This macro technical indicator combines three factors:
1. Market in a confirmed uptrend.
2. A decent number of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows.
3. Breadth turns negative.
If we get a second signal in the next month 👀
Hindenburg Omen fired an initial signal on Friday. This macro technical indicator combines three factors:
1. Market in a confirmed uptrend.
2. A decent number of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows.
3. Breadth turns negative.
If we get a second signal in the next month 👀
Chaikin Money Flow has been holding above the zero level this week, implying the markets are still in an accumulation phase. But the bearish divergence in recent weeks is very similar to previous market tops. $SPX
October 14, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Chaikin Money Flow has been holding above the zero level this week, implying the markets are still in an accumulation phase. But the bearish divergence in recent weeks is very similar to previous market tops. $SPX
How bullish do I want to be when less than half of $SPX members remain above their 50-day moving averages? 🤔
October 14, 2025 at 4:08 PM
How bullish do I want to be when less than half of $SPX members remain above their 50-day moving averages? 🤔
Thanks to Simon Ree for a wonderful discussion on the Market Misbehavior podcast! We discussed how martial arts training helps build mindful traders, using moving average techniques to define market trends, warning signs to watch for in Q4, and how traders to use options to manage risk. Well done!
Simon Ree Shares How Martial Arts Create Mindful Traders
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
October 13, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Thanks to Simon Ree for a wonderful discussion on the Market Misbehavior podcast! We discussed how martial arts training helps build mindful traders, using moving average techniques to define market trends, warning signs to watch for in Q4, and how traders to use options to manage risk. Well done!