Devolved Election Projections
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
A range of simple tools to create your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️
https://devolvedelections.co.uk/
Donate: https://buymeacoffee.com/devolvedelections
https://devolvedelections.co.uk/
Donate: https://buymeacoffee.com/devolvedelections
Our Nowcast for the next NI Assembly.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
November 8, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Our Nowcast for the next NI Assembly.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
Our current Nowcast for the Senedd 2026 election.
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
November 8, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Our current Nowcast for the Senedd 2026 election.
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
A projection based on the latest Beaufort Research Senedd poll for @NationCymru:
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
October 21, 2025 at 10:40 AM
A projection based on the latest Beaufort Research Senedd poll for @NationCymru:
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
October 11, 2025 at 12:52 PM
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect?
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
October 9, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect?
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
Holyrood Projection based on the latest Survation/Scotland in Union Poll:
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
September 25, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Holyrood Projection based on the latest Survation/Scotland in Union Poll:
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Not all of these outcomes are equally likely and we only allow variation within the margin of error (about 2.5%).
There are some surprising outcomes that need small, but very specific, polling misses.
There are some surprising outcomes that need small, but very specific, polling misses.
August 29, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Not all of these outcomes are equally likely and we only allow variation within the margin of error (about 2.5%).
There are some surprising outcomes that need small, but very specific, polling misses.
There are some surprising outcomes that need small, but very specific, polling misses.
Scotland update:
We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling.
Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers
The numbers change with every click
We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling.
Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers
The numbers change with every click
August 29, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Scotland update:
We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling.
Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers
The numbers change with every click
We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling.
Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers
The numbers change with every click
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
August 27, 2025 at 12:36 PM
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Graham Simpson (Central Region) defects from Conservative to Reform becoming their only MSP.
He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West.
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West.
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
August 27, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Graham Simpson (Central Region) defects from Conservative to Reform becoming their only MSP.
He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West.
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West.
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
August 16, 2025 at 9:42 AM
We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
A projection based on the latest
@belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social
poll for NI Assembly ‘27:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1
From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
@belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social
poll for NI Assembly ‘27:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1
From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
August 15, 2025 at 10:04 PM
A projection based on the latest
@belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social
poll for NI Assembly ‘27:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1
From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
@belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social
poll for NI Assembly ‘27:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1
From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Thanks, and no offence taken! We know they did badly before but a lot has changed - Labour's collapse mainly.
The projection from this poll has it a three way tie, all on very low shares (which does feel harsh on Labour).
Reform are a bit further back in our Nowcast average.
The projection from this poll has it a three way tie, all on very low shares (which does feel harsh on Labour).
Reform are a bit further back in our Nowcast average.
July 31, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Thanks, and no offence taken! We know they did badly before but a lot has changed - Labour's collapse mainly.
The projection from this poll has it a three way tie, all on very low shares (which does feel harsh on Labour).
Reform are a bit further back in our Nowcast average.
The projection from this poll has it a three way tie, all on very low shares (which does feel harsh on Labour).
Reform are a bit further back in our Nowcast average.
We'll be ready!
July 31, 2025 at 9:32 AM
We'll be ready!
These numbers are very similar to the recent by-election results in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.
It puts Reform within 3% of winning in all three border seats.
It puts Reform within 3% of winning in all three border seats.
July 31, 2025 at 9:23 AM
These numbers are very similar to the recent by-election results in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.
It puts Reform within 3% of winning in all three border seats.
It puts Reform within 3% of winning in all three border seats.
The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election:
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
July 31, 2025 at 9:23 AM
The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election:
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
We have a little something for that too!
July 26, 2025 at 10:39 AM
We have a little something for that too!
Today's Nowcast for the next Assembly Election:
SF — 24 Seats
DUP — 20
AP — 15
UUP — 10
SDLP — 10
TUV — 10
GP — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
SF — 24 Seats
DUP — 20
AP — 15
UUP — 10
SDLP — 10
TUV — 10
GP — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
July 26, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Today's Nowcast for the next Assembly Election:
SF — 24 Seats
DUP — 20
AP — 15
UUP — 10
SDLP — 10
TUV — 10
GP — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
SF — 24 Seats
DUP — 20
AP — 15
UUP — 10
SDLP — 10
TUV — 10
GP — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Our current Scottish Parliamentary Nowcast:
SNP — 60 Seats
Lab — 22
Con — 12
GP — 11
LD — 7
Ref — 17
Alba — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP — 60 Seats
Lab — 22
Con — 12
GP — 11
LD — 7
Ref — 17
Alba — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
July 26, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Our current Scottish Parliamentary Nowcast:
SNP — 60 Seats
Lab — 22
Con — 12
GP — 11
LD — 7
Ref — 17
Alba — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP — 60 Seats
Lab — 22
Con — 12
GP — 11
LD — 7
Ref — 17
Alba — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
In Scotland, Your Party could win list seats in most/all regions. They could cost Labour some constituency seats and possibly tip some Tory-SNP maginals over the line for the Conservatives.
This would all equalise on the list.
This would all equalise on the list.
July 25, 2025 at 8:39 AM
In Scotland, Your Party could win list seats in most/all regions. They could cost Labour some constituency seats and possibly tip some Tory-SNP maginals over the line for the Conservatives.
This would all equalise on the list.
This would all equalise on the list.
In Wales, they could get 2 seats but could cost Labour 5! Reform and the Tories grabbing some 6th seats as the left splits.
July 25, 2025 at 8:39 AM
In Wales, they could get 2 seats but could cost Labour 5! Reform and the Tories grabbing some 6th seats as the left splits.
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
July 25, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Laura Anne Jones defects to from Conservative to Reform giving them their first MS.
Our Nowcast has Reform winning 2 in the new Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency which overlaps with Jones' current seat, the Conservatives projected to win 1.
Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Our Nowcast has Reform winning 2 in the new Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency which overlaps with Jones' current seat, the Conservatives projected to win 1.
Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
July 22, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Laura Anne Jones defects to from Conservative to Reform giving them their first MS.
Our Nowcast has Reform winning 2 in the new Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency which overlaps with Jones' current seat, the Conservatives projected to win 1.
Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Our Nowcast has Reform winning 2 in the new Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency which overlaps with Jones' current seat, the Conservatives projected to win 1.
Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
And that no changes are planned to Northern Ireland's photo ID restrictions which are already far stricter than those in GB.
An Australian or Indian passport doesn't count as valid ID for a commonwealth citizen.
An Australian or Indian passport doesn't count as valid ID for a commonwealth citizen.
July 17, 2025 at 11:11 AM
And that no changes are planned to Northern Ireland's photo ID restrictions which are already far stricter than those in GB.
An Australian or Indian passport doesn't count as valid ID for a commonwealth citizen.
An Australian or Indian passport doesn't count as valid ID for a commonwealth citizen.
Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru :
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
July 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru :
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/