Devolved Election Projections
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
A range of simple tools to create your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️
https://devolvedelections.co.uk/
Donate: https://buymeacoffee.com/devolvedelections
https://devolvedelections.co.uk/
Donate: https://buymeacoffee.com/devolvedelections
Our latest experiment looking at Reform UK's chances in Northern Ireland based on the most recent @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll, in @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social
sluggerotoole.com/2025/11/15/s...
sluggerotoole.com/2025/11/15/s...
Some tentative prospects for Reform UK in Northern Ireland…
Eoghan Kelly is a postdoc on the University of Edinburgh’s Scottish Election Study and has lectured in Irish politics at Queen’s. Here, he uses his new election projection site to see how reform might...
sluggerotoole.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Our latest experiment looking at Reform UK's chances in Northern Ireland based on the most recent @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll, in @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social
sluggerotoole.com/2025/11/15/s...
sluggerotoole.com/2025/11/15/s...
Our Nowcast for the next NI Assembly.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
November 8, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Our Nowcast for the next NI Assembly.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
Our current Nowcast for the Senedd 2026 election.
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
November 8, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Our current Nowcast for the Senedd 2026 election.
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
There's not been a lot of polling for the 2026 Scottish Parliament recently so here's the current lay of the land.
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
November 8, 2025 at 11:44 AM
There's not been a lot of polling for the 2026 Scottish Parliament recently so here's the current lay of the land.
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Wales overnight, Scotland the next day. Perfect.
Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.
Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.
Massive change for next year's Holyrood election: there'll be no overnight count. Votes to be counted on the Friday instead.
October 29, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Wales overnight, Scotland the next day. Perfect.
Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.
Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.
A projection based on the latest Beaufort Research Senedd poll for @NationCymru:
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
October 21, 2025 at 10:40 AM
A projection based on the latest Beaufort Research Senedd poll for @NationCymru:
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
October 11, 2025 at 12:52 PM
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect?
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
October 9, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect?
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the Norstat poll for @thetimes.com :
🎗️ SNP — 56
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 20
🐤 LD — 12
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 56
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 20
🐤 LD — 12
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
September 28, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the Norstat poll for @thetimes.com :
🎗️ SNP — 56
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 20
🐤 LD — 12
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 56
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 20
🐤 LD — 12
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Holyrood Projection based on the latest Survation/Scotland in Union Poll:
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
September 25, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Holyrood Projection based on the latest Survation/Scotland in Union Poll:
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
A projection based on the latest Barn Cymru poll for YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University for Senedd ‘26:
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 36
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
From
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 36
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
From
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
September 16, 2025 at 8:07 PM
A projection based on the latest Barn Cymru poll for YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University for Senedd ‘26:
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 36
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
From
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 36
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
From
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
We've been busy on the other site as Ireland's presidential election gets into full swing
We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection!
Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.
irishelections.ie/presidential/
Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.
irishelections.ie/presidential/
September 13, 2025 at 1:49 PM
We've been busy on the other site as Ireland's presidential election gets into full swing
Scotland update:
We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling.
Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers
The numbers change with every click
We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling.
Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers
The numbers change with every click
August 29, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Scotland update:
We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling.
Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers
The numbers change with every click
We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling.
Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers
The numbers change with every click
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
August 27, 2025 at 12:36 PM
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Graham Simpson (Central Region) defects from Conservative to Reform becoming their only MSP.
He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West.
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West.
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
August 27, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Graham Simpson (Central Region) defects from Conservative to Reform becoming their only MSP.
He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West.
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West.
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales.
2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...
2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
August 19, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales.
2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...
2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...
We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
August 16, 2025 at 9:42 AM
We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
A projection based on the latest
@belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social
poll for NI Assembly ‘27:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1
From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
@belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social
poll for NI Assembly ‘27:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1
From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
August 15, 2025 at 10:04 PM
A projection based on the latest
@belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social
poll for NI Assembly ‘27:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1
From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
@belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social
poll for NI Assembly ‘27:
☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1
From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election:
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
July 31, 2025 at 9:23 AM
The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election:
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Reposted by Devolved Election Projections
🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
Irish Election Projections
Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
irishelections.ie
July 29, 2025 at 10:21 AM
🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
Our latest Nowcast for the 2026 Senedd election:
Ref — 31 Seats
PC — 28
Lab — 25
Con — 6
LD — 4
GP — 2
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Ref — 31 Seats
PC — 28
Lab — 25
Con — 6
LD — 4
GP — 2
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
July 26, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Our latest Nowcast for the 2026 Senedd election:
Ref — 31 Seats
PC — 28
Lab — 25
Con — 6
LD — 4
GP — 2
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Ref — 31 Seats
PC — 28
Lab — 25
Con — 6
LD — 4
GP — 2
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Today's Nowcast for the next Assembly Election:
SF — 24 Seats
DUP — 20
AP — 15
UUP — 10
SDLP — 10
TUV — 10
GP — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
SF — 24 Seats
DUP — 20
AP — 15
UUP — 10
SDLP — 10
TUV — 10
GP — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
July 26, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Today's Nowcast for the next Assembly Election:
SF — 24 Seats
DUP — 20
AP — 15
UUP — 10
SDLP — 10
TUV — 10
GP — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
SF — 24 Seats
DUP — 20
AP — 15
UUP — 10
SDLP — 10
TUV — 10
GP — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Our current Scottish Parliamentary Nowcast:
SNP — 60 Seats
Lab — 22
Con — 12
GP — 11
LD — 7
Ref — 17
Alba — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP — 60 Seats
Lab — 22
Con — 12
GP — 11
LD — 7
Ref — 17
Alba — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
July 26, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Our current Scottish Parliamentary Nowcast:
SNP — 60 Seats
Lab — 22
Con — 12
GP — 11
LD — 7
Ref — 17
Alba — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP — 60 Seats
Lab — 22
Con — 12
GP — 11
LD — 7
Ref — 17
Alba — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
July 25, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Laura Anne Jones defects to from Conservative to Reform giving them their first MS.
Our Nowcast has Reform winning 2 in the new Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency which overlaps with Jones' current seat, the Conservatives projected to win 1.
Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Our Nowcast has Reform winning 2 in the new Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency which overlaps with Jones' current seat, the Conservatives projected to win 1.
Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
July 22, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Laura Anne Jones defects to from Conservative to Reform giving them their first MS.
Our Nowcast has Reform winning 2 in the new Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency which overlaps with Jones' current seat, the Conservatives projected to win 1.
Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Our Nowcast has Reform winning 2 in the new Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency which overlaps with Jones' current seat, the Conservatives projected to win 1.
Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/