David Passmore
@davidpassmore.bsky.social
Distinguished Professor, Emeritus, Penn State University, https://davidpassmore.net; live in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; a Niagara Falls native.
“There is infinite hope,” Franz Kafka tells us, “only not for us.”
~ imprecisely translated
~ imprecisely translated
November 25, 2025 at 4:24 PM
“There is infinite hope,” Franz Kafka tells us, “only not for us.”
~ imprecisely translated
~ imprecisely translated
November 25, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Le peuple se lève?
"We are not even two weeks from the government shutdown, and the public conversation on the matter has fled the building....[N]o matter what you believe, there’s a simple truth. The shutdown will have zero lasting consequence for next year’s midterms."
bit.ly/3KeZu19
"We are not even two weeks from the government shutdown, and the public conversation on the matter has fled the building....[N]o matter what you believe, there’s a simple truth. The shutdown will have zero lasting consequence for next year’s midterms."
bit.ly/3KeZu19
Opinion | James Carville: Out With Woke. In With Rage.
www.nytimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Le peuple se lève?
"We are not even two weeks from the government shutdown, and the public conversation on the matter has fled the building....[N]o matter what you believe, there’s a simple truth. The shutdown will have zero lasting consequence for next year’s midterms."
bit.ly/3KeZu19
"We are not even two weeks from the government shutdown, and the public conversation on the matter has fled the building....[N]o matter what you believe, there’s a simple truth. The shutdown will have zero lasting consequence for next year’s midterms."
bit.ly/3KeZu19
SHORT-RUN PRICE IMPACT OF U.S. TARIFFS
Prices began rising immediately after tariffs announced. Imported goods rose twice as much as domestic. Tariff costs gradually but steadily transmitted to U.S. consumers, with additional spillovers to domestic goods.
www.nber.org/papers/w34496
Prices began rising immediately after tariffs announced. Imported goods rose twice as much as domestic. Tariff costs gradually but steadily transmitted to U.S. consumers, with additional spillovers to domestic goods.
www.nber.org/papers/w34496
Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 24, 2025 at 6:04 PM
SHORT-RUN PRICE IMPACT OF U.S. TARIFFS
Prices began rising immediately after tariffs announced. Imported goods rose twice as much as domestic. Tariff costs gradually but steadily transmitted to U.S. consumers, with additional spillovers to domestic goods.
www.nber.org/papers/w34496
Prices began rising immediately after tariffs announced. Imported goods rose twice as much as domestic. Tariff costs gradually but steadily transmitted to U.S. consumers, with additional spillovers to domestic goods.
www.nber.org/papers/w34496
FORECASTING SOCIAL SCIENCE
"Confidence in the accuracy of one's forecasts is perversely associated with lower accuracy."
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
"Confidence in the accuracy of one's forecasts is perversely associated with lower accuracy."
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
Forecasting Social Science: Evidence from 100 Projects
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 24, 2025 at 5:58 PM
FORECASTING SOCIAL SCIENCE
"Confidence in the accuracy of one's forecasts is perversely associated with lower accuracy."
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
"Confidence in the accuracy of one's forecasts is perversely associated with lower accuracy."
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
November 24, 2025 at 2:21 PM
THE UNIVERSITY YOU OWN
"The ultrawealthy have long lorded their money and might over university presidents, pelting them with ideas and demands, promises and threats.
"Now they have an ally in the White House."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/u...
"The ultrawealthy have long lorded their money and might over university presidents, pelting them with ideas and demands, promises and threats.
"Now they have an ally in the White House."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/u...
Wealthy People Have Always Shaped Universities. This Time Is Different.
www.nytimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:24 PM
THE UNIVERSITY YOU OWN
"The ultrawealthy have long lorded their money and might over university presidents, pelting them with ideas and demands, promises and threats.
"Now they have an ally in the White House."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/u...
"The ultrawealthy have long lorded their money and might over university presidents, pelting them with ideas and demands, promises and threats.
"Now they have an ally in the White House."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/u...
Like a ship that's tossed and driven
Battered by an angry sea
When the storms of life are raging
And the fury falls on me
I wonder what I have done
To make this race so hard to run
— Thomas Dorsey (1899-1993)
Battered by an angry sea
When the storms of life are raging
And the fury falls on me
I wonder what I have done
To make this race so hard to run
— Thomas Dorsey (1899-1993)
November 22, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Like a ship that's tossed and driven
Battered by an angry sea
When the storms of life are raging
And the fury falls on me
I wonder what I have done
To make this race so hard to run
— Thomas Dorsey (1899-1993)
Battered by an angry sea
When the storms of life are raging
And the fury falls on me
I wonder what I have done
To make this race so hard to run
— Thomas Dorsey (1899-1993)
WHAT A SUCKER
“I could never lend myself to any transaction, however respectable, that would commercialise the prestige and dignity of the office of the presidency,” said Harry Truman after exiting presidency.
bit.ly/48bpLFR
The buck stopped right there.
Give 'em hell, Harry!
“I could never lend myself to any transaction, however respectable, that would commercialise the prestige and dignity of the office of the presidency,” said Harry Truman after exiting presidency.
bit.ly/48bpLFR
The buck stopped right there.
Give 'em hell, Harry!
November 21, 2025 at 11:38 AM
WHAT A SUCKER
“I could never lend myself to any transaction, however respectable, that would commercialise the prestige and dignity of the office of the presidency,” said Harry Truman after exiting presidency.
bit.ly/48bpLFR
The buck stopped right there.
Give 'em hell, Harry!
“I could never lend myself to any transaction, however respectable, that would commercialise the prestige and dignity of the office of the presidency,” said Harry Truman after exiting presidency.
bit.ly/48bpLFR
The buck stopped right there.
Give 'em hell, Harry!
21 NOVEMBER 1787
On this day in history, the Treaty of Versailles of 1787 was signed to establish an alliance between France and Vietnam.
Yes, friends, other subsequent treaties were signed in Versailles.
Remember, in the U.S., "Le peuple est l'État, et ce n'est pas une déclaration séditieuse!"
On this day in history, the Treaty of Versailles of 1787 was signed to establish an alliance between France and Vietnam.
Yes, friends, other subsequent treaties were signed in Versailles.
Remember, in the U.S., "Le peuple est l'État, et ce n'est pas une déclaration séditieuse!"
November 21, 2025 at 11:30 AM
21 NOVEMBER 1787
On this day in history, the Treaty of Versailles of 1787 was signed to establish an alliance between France and Vietnam.
Yes, friends, other subsequent treaties were signed in Versailles.
Remember, in the U.S., "Le peuple est l'État, et ce n'est pas une déclaration séditieuse!"
On this day in history, the Treaty of Versailles of 1787 was signed to establish an alliance between France and Vietnam.
Yes, friends, other subsequent treaties were signed in Versailles.
Remember, in the U.S., "Le peuple est l'État, et ce n'est pas une déclaration séditieuse!"
KISSING IS A ...
"non-aggressive, mouth-to-mouth contact that did not involve food transfer."
Thank G_D for science.
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-11...
"non-aggressive, mouth-to-mouth contact that did not involve food transfer."
Thank G_D for science.
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-11...
Ape ancestors and Neanderthals likely kissed, new analysis finds |
A new study led by the University of Oxford has found evidence that kissing evolved in the common ancestor of humans and other large apes around 21 million years ago, and that Neanderthals likely
www.ox.ac.uk
November 20, 2025 at 12:19 PM
KISSING IS A ...
"non-aggressive, mouth-to-mouth contact that did not involve food transfer."
Thank G_D for science.
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-11...
"non-aggressive, mouth-to-mouth contact that did not involve food transfer."
Thank G_D for science.
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-11...
"A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention webpage that previously made the case that vaccines don’t cause autism now says they might."
bit.ly/48n1iyl
“I don’t think…” said Alice. “Then you shouldn’t talk,” said the Hatter.
bit.ly/48n1iyl
“I don’t think…” said Alice. “Then you shouldn’t talk,” said the Hatter.
November 20, 2025 at 11:38 AM
"A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention webpage that previously made the case that vaccines don’t cause autism now says they might."
bit.ly/48n1iyl
“I don’t think…” said Alice. “Then you shouldn’t talk,” said the Hatter.
bit.ly/48n1iyl
“I don’t think…” said Alice. “Then you shouldn’t talk,” said the Hatter.
PERHAPS A SPIRITUAL EPIPHANY?
"I cannot stop wondering if I’ve sold Marjorie Taylor Greene short."
~ Frank Bruni, New York Times contributing Opinion writer.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/o...
"I cannot stop wondering if I’ve sold Marjorie Taylor Greene short."
~ Frank Bruni, New York Times contributing Opinion writer.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/o...
Opinion | Marjorie Taylor Greene Was Not on Our Bingo Card
www.nytimes.com
November 20, 2025 at 11:27 AM
PERHAPS A SPIRITUAL EPIPHANY?
"I cannot stop wondering if I’ve sold Marjorie Taylor Greene short."
~ Frank Bruni, New York Times contributing Opinion writer.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/o...
"I cannot stop wondering if I’ve sold Marjorie Taylor Greene short."
~ Frank Bruni, New York Times contributing Opinion writer.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/o...
SEEMS LIKE POPE LEO'S TEACHINGS ARE RESONATING THOUGH ACTIVE CATHOLICS
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/u...
November 20, 2025 at 11:20 AM
SEEMS LIKE POPE LEO'S TEACHINGS ARE RESONATING THOUGH ACTIVE CATHOLICS
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/u...
Spinoza argued that "Everything one needs for salvation is already at hand," and "All things excellent are as difficult as they are rare.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/m...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/m...
The Secret to Getting Through Big, Dense, Difficult Books
www.nytimes.com
November 20, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Spinoza argued that "Everything one needs for salvation is already at hand," and "All things excellent are as difficult as they are rare.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/m...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/m...
MORE ROUTES FOR OIL
Western Canadian production of heavy crude oil will continue rising. New pipeline takeaway capacity will be needed to handle those increasing volumes.
bit.ly/CrudEx
Western Canadian production of heavy crude oil will continue rising. New pipeline takeaway capacity will be needed to handle those increasing volumes.
bit.ly/CrudEx
Let’s Get It Started – Enbridge In Early Stages of Major Crude Oil Pipeline Expansion Program
Buoyed by record crude oil flows and the expectation of further growth in Western Canada, Enbridge has been sanctioning more pipeline expansion projects and discussing plans to add more capacity.
bit.ly
November 20, 2025 at 11:10 AM
MORE ROUTES FOR OIL
Western Canadian production of heavy crude oil will continue rising. New pipeline takeaway capacity will be needed to handle those increasing volumes.
bit.ly/CrudEx
Western Canadian production of heavy crude oil will continue rising. New pipeline takeaway capacity will be needed to handle those increasing volumes.
bit.ly/CrudEx
WALL STREET JOURNAL, NEWS THAT SUPPLY CHAIN WEAK TO CHINESE?
“U.S. policymakers still lack transparency around the scope of these vulnerabilities as well as a broader appreciation of what could happen if Beijing ever chose to weaponize these economic dependencies in a conflict scenario."
“U.S. policymakers still lack transparency around the scope of these vulnerabilities as well as a broader appreciation of what could happen if Beijing ever chose to weaponize these economic dependencies in a conflict scenario."
November 18, 2025 at 3:29 PM
WALL STREET JOURNAL, NEWS THAT SUPPLY CHAIN WEAK TO CHINESE?
“U.S. policymakers still lack transparency around the scope of these vulnerabilities as well as a broader appreciation of what could happen if Beijing ever chose to weaponize these economic dependencies in a conflict scenario."
“U.S. policymakers still lack transparency around the scope of these vulnerabilities as well as a broader appreciation of what could happen if Beijing ever chose to weaponize these economic dependencies in a conflict scenario."
Nov 17 median estimate by Metaculus market participants of likelihood of the U.S. carrying out military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces by 1 January 2026:
50% <--- up 5% in the past week.
Variation of estimates appended.
www.metaculus.com/questions/39...
50% <--- up 5% in the past week.
Variation of estimates appended.
www.metaculus.com/questions/39...
November 17, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Nov 17 median estimate by Metaculus market participants of likelihood of the U.S. carrying out military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces by 1 January 2026:
50% <--- up 5% in the past week.
Variation of estimates appended.
www.metaculus.com/questions/39...
50% <--- up 5% in the past week.
Variation of estimates appended.
www.metaculus.com/questions/39...
SUSPICIOUS COINCIDENCES?
On this day in history, Actor Danny DeVito was born (1944); the first known case of COVID-19 was traced to a man who visited Wuhan, China (2019).
Think it over, you sheeples!
On this day in history, Actor Danny DeVito was born (1944); the first known case of COVID-19 was traced to a man who visited Wuhan, China (2019).
Think it over, you sheeples!
November 17, 2025 at 1:42 PM
SUSPICIOUS COINCIDENCES?
On this day in history, Actor Danny DeVito was born (1944); the first known case of COVID-19 was traced to a man who visited Wuhan, China (2019).
Think it over, you sheeples!
On this day in history, Actor Danny DeVito was born (1944); the first known case of COVID-19 was traced to a man who visited Wuhan, China (2019).
Think it over, you sheeples!
ALL IN FINANCIALLY FOR DATA CENTERS
World oil-and-gas industry borrowing, 2012-2015, $1 trillion; few AI tech giants, roughly $1.2 trillion, 2025-2028.
Meta's Hyperion project is bigger than Midtown Manhattan.
AI infrastructure deals sure are lucrative for money managers.
on.wsj.com/49oB9jS
World oil-and-gas industry borrowing, 2012-2015, $1 trillion; few AI tech giants, roughly $1.2 trillion, 2025-2028.
Meta's Hyperion project is bigger than Midtown Manhattan.
AI infrastructure deals sure are lucrative for money managers.
on.wsj.com/49oB9jS
November 17, 2025 at 1:14 PM
ALL IN FINANCIALLY FOR DATA CENTERS
World oil-and-gas industry borrowing, 2012-2015, $1 trillion; few AI tech giants, roughly $1.2 trillion, 2025-2028.
Meta's Hyperion project is bigger than Midtown Manhattan.
AI infrastructure deals sure are lucrative for money managers.
on.wsj.com/49oB9jS
World oil-and-gas industry borrowing, 2012-2015, $1 trillion; few AI tech giants, roughly $1.2 trillion, 2025-2028.
Meta's Hyperion project is bigger than Midtown Manhattan.
AI infrastructure deals sure are lucrative for money managers.
on.wsj.com/49oB9jS
CRYPTO ON YOU
"At least $28 billion tied to illicit activity has flowed into crypto exchanges over the last two years." Yet, the DOJ deleted its crypto enforcement team.
Ever been "pig butchered" for your funds? Has a "money mule" ever picked up cash from you? Embarrassed? Angry?
bit.ly/4piOhvC
"At least $28 billion tied to illicit activity has flowed into crypto exchanges over the last two years." Yet, the DOJ deleted its crypto enforcement team.
Ever been "pig butchered" for your funds? Has a "money mule" ever picked up cash from you? Embarrassed? Angry?
bit.ly/4piOhvC
November 17, 2025 at 11:36 AM
CRYPTO ON YOU
"At least $28 billion tied to illicit activity has flowed into crypto exchanges over the last two years." Yet, the DOJ deleted its crypto enforcement team.
Ever been "pig butchered" for your funds? Has a "money mule" ever picked up cash from you? Embarrassed? Angry?
bit.ly/4piOhvC
"At least $28 billion tied to illicit activity has flowed into crypto exchanges over the last two years." Yet, the DOJ deleted its crypto enforcement team.
Ever been "pig butchered" for your funds? Has a "money mule" ever picked up cash from you? Embarrassed? Angry?
bit.ly/4piOhvC
SEAMUS HEANEY COLLECTION
"Take off from here. And don’t be so earnest,
let others wear the sackcloth and the ashes.
Let go, let fly, forget.
You’ve listened long enough. Now strike your note.”
See a review at: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/16/b...
"Take off from here. And don’t be so earnest,
let others wear the sackcloth and the ashes.
Let go, let fly, forget.
You’ve listened long enough. Now strike your note.”
See a review at: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/16/b...
This 1,200-Page Poetry Book Affirms Seamus Heaney’s Towering Genius
www.nytimes.com
November 17, 2025 at 11:24 AM
SEAMUS HEANEY COLLECTION
"Take off from here. And don’t be so earnest,
let others wear the sackcloth and the ashes.
Let go, let fly, forget.
You’ve listened long enough. Now strike your note.”
See a review at: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/16/b...
"Take off from here. And don’t be so earnest,
let others wear the sackcloth and the ashes.
Let go, let fly, forget.
You’ve listened long enough. Now strike your note.”
See a review at: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/16/b...
PURSUING LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS A FALSE PATH?
“If you are a Ph.D. student in AI, you should absolutely not work on LLMs.”
~ Yann LeCun.
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/yann...?
“If you are a Ph.D. student in AI, you should absolutely not work on LLMs.”
~ Yann LeCun.
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/yann...?
He’s Been Right About AI for 40 Years. Now He Thinks Everyone Is Wrong.
Yann LeCun invented many fundamental components of modern AI. Now he’s convinced most in his field have been led astray by the siren song of large language models.
www.wsj.com
November 17, 2025 at 10:46 AM
PURSUING LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS A FALSE PATH?
“If you are a Ph.D. student in AI, you should absolutely not work on LLMs.”
~ Yann LeCun.
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/yann...?
“If you are a Ph.D. student in AI, you should absolutely not work on LLMs.”
~ Yann LeCun.
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/yann...?
I am not sure how this happened, but I missed the anniversary of Laika’s death on 3 November. She died in 1957 of hypothermia in low space.
November 13, 2025 at 4:50 PM
I am not sure how this happened, but I missed the anniversary of Laika’s death on 3 November. She died in 1957 of hypothermia in low space.
Reposted by David Passmore
Discernment is like shining a light on something; judgment is more like trying to paint it your favorite color. Less judgment, more discernment.
November 11, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Discernment is like shining a light on something; judgment is more like trying to paint it your favorite color. Less judgment, more discernment.