Dan Cassino
@dancassino.bsky.social
Political scientist at FDU, Executive Director of the FDU Poll, studying masculinities and research methods.
Also, while I knew Allen Ginsberg was from Paterson, I did not expect him to show up repeatedly(identified only by initials) in “Paterson.”
November 24, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Also, while I knew Allen Ginsberg was from Paterson, I did not expect him to show up repeatedly(identified only by initials) in “Paterson.”
William Carlos Williams is writing about Paterson, and has no time for anywhere else.
November 24, 2025 at 1:01 AM
William Carlos Williams is writing about Paterson, and has no time for anywhere else.
What I hadn’t previously noticed is that the questions are also missing the interpretative statements required by NJ Law.
November 22, 2025 at 1:03 PM
What I hadn’t previously noticed is that the questions are also missing the interpretative statements required by NJ Law.
The Montclair School funding referendum has attracted its first lawsuit even before the vote, with the plaintiffs arguing (correctly, I think) that the clear language of the questions is asking voters to have a referendum, rather than approving money.
November 22, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The Montclair School funding referendum has attracted its first lawsuit even before the vote, with the plaintiffs arguing (correctly, I think) that the clear language of the questions is asking voters to have a referendum, rather than approving money.
And in case that would lead me to think this was a Gill sponsored poll, it follows up with another vote test (to see if the info about Gill would change my mind), then a bigger info dump about Bartlett.
November 18, 2025 at 7:30 PM
And in case that would lead me to think this was a Gill sponsored poll, it follows up with another vote test (to see if the info about Gill would change my mind), then a bigger info dump about Bartlett.
Boy, that’s a lot of info about Gill. I’m surprised that it’s not calling out “the biggest conservation project in NJ history” by name, as the greenway is a big deal in much of the district.
November 18, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Boy, that’s a lot of info about Gill. I’m surprised that it’s not calling out “the biggest conservation project in NJ history” by name, as the greenway is a big deal in much of the district.
My guess is that we’re getting a choice/intervention/choice design, so this is the initial vote choice question. Those designs are accurate, but very low power, so you need a giant sample size to see any effects. Not sure it’s what I’d be doing here.
November 18, 2025 at 7:27 PM
My guess is that we’re getting a choice/intervention/choice design, so this is the initial vote choice question. Those designs are accurate, but very low power, so you need a giant sample size to see any effects. Not sure it’s what I’d be doing here.
Well, here’s the problem with polling a giant primary: at least one major option isn’t listed, Analila Mejia, isn’t listed, so the results will be instantly outdated (I know she hasn’t announced; doesn’t matter for polls).
November 18, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Well, here’s the problem with polling a giant primary: at least one major option isn’t listed, Analila Mejia, isn’t listed, so the results will be instantly outdated (I know she hasn’t announced; doesn’t matter for polls).
Ok, race questions really should be multiple response options, and there should be a MENA option; get with the program.
November 18, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Ok, race questions really should be multiple response options, and there should be a MENA option; get with the program.
Oh, I hope it’s an NJ-11 Special Election survey!
November 18, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Oh, I hope it’s an NJ-11 Special Election survey!
And the difference is bigger if we separate it out by gender as well as sex. 19% QAnon support among less traditional women.
November 17, 2025 at 2:53 PM
And the difference is bigger if we separate it out by gender as well as sex. 19% QAnon support among less traditional women.
OK, I think I'm parsing this right: among Trump supporters, there are more men than women. But Trump supporting women are more likely to say that they support QAnon than Trump supporting men are. 15% (women) versus 11% (men).
November 17, 2025 at 2:50 PM
OK, I think I'm parsing this right: among Trump supporters, there are more men than women. But Trump supporting women are more likely to say that they support QAnon than Trump supporting men are. 15% (women) versus 11% (men).
In another question, respondents are asked if Trump supports QAnon. Trump supporting women who assert non-traditional gender identities are *way* more likely to say that he does: 22%, versus 11-12% among everyone else.
November 17, 2025 at 2:39 PM
In another question, respondents are asked if Trump supports QAnon. Trump supporting women who assert non-traditional gender identities are *way* more likely to say that he does: 22%, versus 11-12% among everyone else.
Similar pattern with posts about QAnon: women Trump supporters are more likely to reporting having posted about QAnon than men who support Trump.
November 17, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Similar pattern with posts about QAnon: women Trump supporters are more likely to reporting having posted about QAnon than men who support Trump.
Things get weird when we zoom in on Trump supporters (reported vote for Trump in 2020). In that group, the highest endorsement of QAnon is among... women asserting non-traditional gender identities. Not typical Trump supporters, but something is going on there.
November 17, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Things get weird when we zoom in on Trump supporters (reported vote for Trump in 2020). In that group, the highest endorsement of QAnon is among... women asserting non-traditional gender identities. Not typical Trump supporters, but something is going on there.
When it comes to the harder test - asking people if they have posted online about QAnon - there's a gender traditionalism effect, but no sex effect. Women and men who assert more traditonal gender identities are more likely to say that they've posted about it.
November 17, 2025 at 2:26 PM
When it comes to the harder test - asking people if they have posted online about QAnon - there's a gender traditionalism effect, but no sex effect. Women and men who assert more traditonal gender identities are more likely to say that they've posted about it.
OK - data is from 2021, which isn't great, but the sample size is ~2,800. There's a combination of sex effects (men more likely to say that they support QAnon), and gender effects (people with more traditional gender identities more likely to endorse).
November 17, 2025 at 2:24 PM
OK - data is from 2021, which isn't great, but the sample size is ~2,800. There's a combination of sex effects (men more likely to say that they support QAnon), and gender effects (people with more traditional gender identities more likely to endorse).
The answer is: kinda. It matters, pushing people towards the more traditional gender identities, but the effects are only evident in the scalar (0-100) measure. The effects are also (no big surprise), much bigger among men than women.
November 14, 2025 at 4:41 PM
The answer is: kinda. It matters, pushing people towards the more traditional gender identities, but the effects are only evident in the scalar (0-100) measure. The effects are also (no big surprise), much bigger among men than women.
14% of respondents gave themselves the exact same score at both times, and 41% were within 5 points. About a quarter moved more than 20 points.
November 14, 2025 at 4:37 PM
14% of respondents gave themselves the exact same score at both times, and 41% were within 5 points. About a quarter moved more than 20 points.
The scalar measure, which runs from 0-100, has been used mostly in online surveys, like the Canadian Election Survey. It looks like this:
November 14, 2025 at 4:35 PM
The scalar measure, which runs from 0-100, has been used mostly in online surveys, like the Canadian Election Survey. It looks like this:
We had a group of about 1,100 respondents in a prob-based online panel answer this question in 2021, and again 4 years later in 2025. The responses are very stable.
November 14, 2025 at 4:32 PM
We had a group of about 1,100 respondents in a prob-based online panel answer this question in 2021, and again 4 years later in 2025. The responses are very stable.
Perhaps because I'm mostly asking questions over the telephone, I tend to prefer a 6 point scalar option, which looks like this:
November 14, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Perhaps because I'm mostly asking questions over the telephone, I tend to prefer a 6 point scalar option, which looks like this:
First problem: the wording of the ballot questions, the plain language of which doesn’t actually authorize the tax increases that they’re asking for.
November 13, 2025 at 12:18 PM
First problem: the wording of the ballot questions, the plain language of which doesn’t actually authorize the tax increases that they’re asking for.
Coming in January!
November 11, 2025 at 1:45 AM
Coming in January!
Election Day in NJ! Democrats have a substantial margin in early voting, but anything can happen. Here’s my predictions for tonight, in order of likelihood:
November 4, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Election Day in NJ! Democrats have a substantial margin in early voting, but anything can happen. Here’s my predictions for tonight, in order of likelihood: