Dan Ancona
@danancona.bsky.social
Daddo and married to @jenancona. Standing athwart history yelling, WTF. Research, writing, ads, and building processes for understanding and persuading across the Dem-left coalition.
WARNING: Dumb analysis! Do not do this! But:
18-29s, 2024:
Dem support 55%
turnout 50 swing/42 elsewhere
EVs: 226 D 312 R
2024 scenario I, Biden 18-29 results:
Dem support 61%
turnout 55 swing/52 nonswing
EVs: 247 D 291 R
2024 scenario II, Biden +5 18-29 turnout and +1 share:
EVs: 287 D 251 R
18-29s, 2024:
Dem support 55%
turnout 50 swing/42 elsewhere
EVs: 226 D 312 R
2024 scenario I, Biden 18-29 results:
Dem support 61%
turnout 55 swing/52 nonswing
EVs: 247 D 291 R
2024 scenario II, Biden +5 18-29 turnout and +1 share:
EVs: 287 D 251 R
November 27, 2025 at 1:10 AM
WARNING: Dumb analysis! Do not do this! But:
18-29s, 2024:
Dem support 55%
turnout 50 swing/42 elsewhere
EVs: 226 D 312 R
2024 scenario I, Biden 18-29 results:
Dem support 61%
turnout 55 swing/52 nonswing
EVs: 247 D 291 R
2024 scenario II, Biden +5 18-29 turnout and +1 share:
EVs: 287 D 251 R
18-29s, 2024:
Dem support 55%
turnout 50 swing/42 elsewhere
EVs: 226 D 312 R
2024 scenario I, Biden 18-29 results:
Dem support 61%
turnout 55 swing/52 nonswing
EVs: 247 D 291 R
2024 scenario II, Biden +5 18-29 turnout and +1 share:
EVs: 287 D 251 R
Ok there’s some acquiescence bias in this q wording, but still. Dang.
November 26, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Ok there’s some acquiescence bias in this q wording, but still. Dang.
We took the train up to UC Davis for a football game last weekend. Strongly recommend both Amtrak and Aggies football. Great small stadium experience. But I was reminded why I can’t quite hang with the YIMBY. I want us to build housing but this is turning farmland into traffic and isolation.
November 26, 2025 at 5:07 PM
We took the train up to UC Davis for a football game last weekend. Strongly recommend both Amtrak and Aggies football. Great small stadium experience. But I was reminded why I can’t quite hang with the YIMBY. I want us to build housing but this is turning farmland into traffic and isolation.
somebody update the org chart, i can't keep track
November 22, 2025 at 2:07 AM
somebody update the org chart, i can't keep track
The Horrors Of Socialism
November 21, 2025 at 4:41 PM
The Horrors Of Socialism
You should DJ!!! It's really stupidly fun. You just need one of these lil guys, this one was a couple hundred bucks. (pool, floaties and small sound system not included)
November 20, 2025 at 8:19 PM
You should DJ!!! It's really stupidly fun. You just need one of these lil guys, this one was a couple hundred bucks. (pool, floaties and small sound system not included)
besides laying the groundwork for what ICE is doing now they also were wildly politically ineffective and backfired on horse race, issue trust and mobilization in this test
November 20, 2025 at 5:58 PM
besides laying the groundwork for what ICE is doing now they also were wildly politically ineffective and backfired on horse race, issue trust and mobilization in this test
I’d say this is pretty close to “abandon immigrants.” $4M telling people to vote for the other guys.
November 20, 2025 at 4:52 PM
I’d say this is pretty close to “abandon immigrants.” $4M telling people to vote for the other guys.
This is very cool and interesting and helpful. My only quibble is this finding should not be surprising! to anyone! Tons of normal voters mostly do not have coherent ideologies, particularly at the issue level. They want a jumble of stuff.
November 20, 2025 at 2:54 PM
This is very cool and interesting and helpful. My only quibble is this finding should not be surprising! to anyone! Tons of normal voters mostly do not have coherent ideologies, particularly at the issue level. They want a jumble of stuff.
Starting to think the accusations of bad faith are a tell. They know their argument is increasingly shaky so they gotta bluff on the pair of 3s. I’m terrible at poker but even I can see it.
November 18, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Starting to think the accusations of bad faith are a tell. They know their argument is increasingly shaky so they gotta bluff on the pair of 3s. I’m terrible at poker but even I can see it.
needs an “all of the above” option
November 15, 2025 at 1:30 AM
needs an “all of the above” option
Gave it some thought and Greg's right. Starting with 7 days, might switch it to forever. Whichever NYT editor has the humiliation kink, good for them, but they are not involving me in their mess without my consent.
November 14, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Gave it some thought and Greg's right. Starting with 7 days, might switch it to forever. Whichever NYT editor has the humiliation kink, good for them, but they are not involving me in their mess without my consent.
I did this run when I was in Bk a few week ago, just as the sun was setting. Epic. It was like running in a video game level.
November 14, 2025 at 4:30 PM
I did this run when I was in Bk a few week ago, just as the sun was setting. Epic. It was like running in a video game level.
This is VERY true and this is my #1 favorite receipt of it, and why I think maybe these people want Dems to lose. They have a tendency to drop these reports DURING GOTV. Third Way had one drop THE DAY BEFORE E-DAY in 2022, and it earned them a Fox News chyron.
November 14, 2025 at 1:30 AM
This is VERY true and this is my #1 favorite receipt of it, and why I think maybe these people want Dems to lose. They have a tendency to drop these reports DURING GOTV. Third Way had one drop THE DAY BEFORE E-DAY in 2022, and it earned them a Fox News chyron.
The Post is STILL running cover for this guy. Unbelievable.
November 13, 2025 at 3:03 PM
The Post is STILL running cover for this guy. Unbelievable.
this is what JEFFREY EPSTEIN thought of Trump
“i have met some very bad people , none as bad as trump. not one decent cell in his body. so yes- dangerous”
what has gone wrong systemically, and spiritually, in our culture that this is the person who was chosen to lead
“i have met some very bad people , none as bad as trump. not one decent cell in his body. so yes- dangerous”
what has gone wrong systemically, and spiritually, in our culture that this is the person who was chosen to lead
November 13, 2025 at 2:47 AM
this is what JEFFREY EPSTEIN thought of Trump
“i have met some very bad people , none as bad as trump. not one decent cell in his body. so yes- dangerous”
what has gone wrong systemically, and spiritually, in our culture that this is the person who was chosen to lead
“i have met some very bad people , none as bad as trump. not one decent cell in his body. so yes- dangerous”
what has gone wrong systemically, and spiritually, in our culture that this is the person who was chosen to lead
My "DHS DEFINITELY DOES NOT PEPPER SPRAY CHILDREN" t-shirt has people asking questions already answered by my shirt for some reason
November 12, 2025 at 6:18 AM
My "DHS DEFINITELY DOES NOT PEPPER SPRAY CHILDREN" t-shirt has people asking questions already answered by my shirt for some reason
Real post from an a16z GP. I swear: it was a long time ago, but when I moved to CA to work in tech, it was NOTHING like this.
November 12, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Real post from an a16z GP. I swear: it was a long time ago, but when I moved to CA to work in tech, it was NOTHING like this.
Different version of it, but I like the flag map
November 11, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Different version of it, but I like the flag map
Youth turnout, 2021 to 2025 (and 2025 as pct of 2021):
NJ Gov 20% to 29% (+145%)
VA Gov 27% to 34% (+126%)
NYC Mayor 11.1% to 41.3% (+372%)
Sources: CIRCLE circle.tufts.edu/latest-resea... and DDHQ
NJ Gov 20% to 29% (+145%)
VA Gov 27% to 34% (+126%)
NYC Mayor 11.1% to 41.3% (+372%)
Sources: CIRCLE circle.tufts.edu/latest-resea... and DDHQ
November 10, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Youth turnout, 2021 to 2025 (and 2025 as pct of 2021):
NJ Gov 20% to 29% (+145%)
VA Gov 27% to 34% (+126%)
NYC Mayor 11.1% to 41.3% (+372%)
Sources: CIRCLE circle.tufts.edu/latest-resea... and DDHQ
NJ Gov 20% to 29% (+145%)
VA Gov 27% to 34% (+126%)
NYC Mayor 11.1% to 41.3% (+372%)
Sources: CIRCLE circle.tufts.edu/latest-resea... and DDHQ
Like, the Paris city government does what now?
November 9, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Like, the Paris city government does what now?
The Trump administration is using access to food as a weapon of psychological warfare against millions of Americans. A21.
November 9, 2025 at 5:08 PM
The Trump administration is using access to food as a weapon of psychological warfare against millions of Americans. A21.