Conrad
@conradaml.bsky.social
PhDing @ University of Reading: 'DIVIDED: Inequality and Polarization Prevention' | New Zealand stuff for @oceaniaelects.bsky.social | he/they 🏳️🌈
Pinned
Conrad
@conradaml.bsky.social
· Sep 26
Is Alberta's party system changing? Not yet.
A shock new poll from Cardinal Research suggests big change could be underway in Alberta, but there's reason to be sceptical
conradaml.substack.com
I wrote about a recent poll in Alberta that had some very eye-catching numbers — it's a key case of needing to be cautious to not draw too many conclusions from a single poll, even when it shows something dramatic
conradaml.substack.com/p/is-alberta...
conradaml.substack.com/p/is-alberta...
Now: Super Paper Mario (sadly remains the last good paper mario game… *grumble*)
Don’t think I was playing any games from that year back then so can’t say for then
Don’t think I was playing any games from that year back then so can’t say for then
...aaaand we're back! It's the Big One
Quote this with your favourite game NOW that was released in 2007, and what your favourite was THEN (if you had one)
Localisations/early access count, remasters/ports don't. Remakes depend.
Two-way ties count.
Refresher list: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
Quote this with your favourite game NOW that was released in 2007, and what your favourite was THEN (if you had one)
Localisations/early access count, remasters/ports don't. Remakes depend.
Two-way ties count.
Refresher list: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
December 26, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Now: Super Paper Mario (sadly remains the last good paper mario game… *grumble*)
Don’t think I was playing any games from that year back then so can’t say for then
Don’t think I was playing any games from that year back then so can’t say for then
A success taste wise! Still haven’t really mastered the art of making pastry – some of them were collapsing a bit. But i’m happy with them on whole ☺️
I basically do no baking but decided to make (vegan🌱) mince pies this year. Think they turned out alright for a first go!
Just followed the BBC Good Food recipe for the filling and followed another one for vegan shortcrust.
Happy Christmas! ☺️
Just followed the BBC Good Food recipe for the filling and followed another one for vegan shortcrust.
Happy Christmas! ☺️
December 25, 2025 at 7:20 PM
A success taste wise! Still haven’t really mastered the art of making pastry – some of them were collapsing a bit. But i’m happy with them on whole ☺️
I basically do no baking but decided to make (vegan🌱) mince pies this year. Think they turned out alright for a first go!
Just followed the BBC Good Food recipe for the filling and followed another one for vegan shortcrust.
Happy Christmas! ☺️
Just followed the BBC Good Food recipe for the filling and followed another one for vegan shortcrust.
Happy Christmas! ☺️
December 24, 2025 at 11:52 PM
I basically do no baking but decided to make (vegan🌱) mince pies this year. Think they turned out alright for a first go!
Just followed the BBC Good Food recipe for the filling and followed another one for vegan shortcrust.
Happy Christmas! ☺️
Just followed the BBC Good Food recipe for the filling and followed another one for vegan shortcrust.
Happy Christmas! ☺️
Then: Super Smash Bros Brawl (never actually owned it, just played it endlessly at my friends!)
Now: Persona 4
Now: Persona 4
Quote this with your favourite game NOW that was released in 2008, and what your favourite was THEN (if you had one)
Localisations/early access count, remasters/ports don't. Remakes depend
Two-way ties count
If you need more of a refresher: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
Localisations/early access count, remasters/ports don't. Remakes depend
Two-way ties count
If you need more of a refresher: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
December 24, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Then: Super Smash Bros Brawl (never actually owned it, just played it endlessly at my friends!)
Now: Persona 4
Now: Persona 4
Then: The Sims 3
Now: (Hear me out) Final Fantasy XIII
Yes it’s slow and linear, but it’s visually awesome, has great world building, and the paradigm system is really unique and cool!
Now: (Hear me out) Final Fantasy XIII
Yes it’s slow and linear, but it’s visually awesome, has great world building, and the paradigm system is really unique and cool!
Quote this with your favourite game NOW that was released in 2009, and what your favourite was THEN (if you had one)
Localisations/early access count, remasters/ports don't. Remakes depend
Two-way ties count
If you need more of a refresher: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
Localisations/early access count, remasters/ports don't. Remakes depend
Two-way ties count
If you need more of a refresher: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
December 22, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Then: The Sims 3
Now: (Hear me out) Final Fantasy XIII
Yes it’s slow and linear, but it’s visually awesome, has great world building, and the paradigm system is really unique and cool!
Now: (Hear me out) Final Fantasy XIII
Yes it’s slow and linear, but it’s visually awesome, has great world building, and the paradigm system is really unique and cool!
Back then: Super Mario Galaxy 2
Now: Limbo
(This reminds me I should really play Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective!)
Now: Limbo
(This reminds me I should really play Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective!)
Quote this with what you would have said your game of the year was at the end of 2010, if you had one, and what you would say your favourite game of 2010 is now, if it differs
Localisations and early access count, remasters and ports don't. Remakes depend
Refresher: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
Localisations and early access count, remasters and ports don't. Remakes depend
Refresher: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
December 21, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Back then: Super Mario Galaxy 2
Now: Limbo
(This reminds me I should really play Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective!)
Now: Limbo
(This reminds me I should really play Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective!)
inFamous 2 at the time (only game I have a platinum trophy for!)
Portal 2 now for sure — inFamous 2 is fun but gets a bit samey after a bit, and you do feel it struggling on the PS3 lol
Portal 2 now for sure — inFamous 2 is fun but gets a bit samey after a bit, and you do feel it struggling on the PS3 lol
Quote this with what you would have said your game of the year was at the end of 2011, if you had one, and what you would say your favourite game of 2011 is now, if it differs
Localisations and early access count, remasters don't. Remakes depend
Refresher list: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
Localisations and early access count, remasters don't. Remakes depend
Refresher list: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
December 20, 2025 at 4:30 PM
inFamous 2 at the time (only game I have a platinum trophy for!)
Portal 2 now for sure — inFamous 2 is fun but gets a bit samey after a bit, and you do feel it struggling on the PS3 lol
Portal 2 now for sure — inFamous 2 is fun but gets a bit samey after a bit, and you do feel it struggling on the PS3 lol
I think then I would’ve said FTL.
Still enjoy FTL but I have to say Thomas Was Alone for me is actually now basically my favourite puzzle platformer so I think that wins now.
Still enjoy FTL but I have to say Thomas Was Alone for me is actually now basically my favourite puzzle platformer so I think that wins now.
Quote this with what you would have said your game of the year was at the end of 2012, if you had one, and what you would say your favourite game of 2012 is now, if it differs
Localisations and early access count, remasters don't. Remakes depend
Refresher list: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
Localisations and early access count, remasters don't. Remakes depend
Refresher list: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
December 20, 2025 at 11:27 AM
I think then I would’ve said FTL.
Still enjoy FTL but I have to say Thomas Was Alone for me is actually now basically my favourite puzzle platformer so I think that wins now.
Still enjoy FTL but I have to say Thomas Was Alone for me is actually now basically my favourite puzzle platformer so I think that wins now.
I think it would be Stanley Parable for both if i’m just thinking about how much I jus thoroughly enjoyed playing it.
I tried out the Ultra Deluxe version recently and i thought maybe it actually wouldn’t hold up very well anymore, but I found it really does imo!
I tried out the Ultra Deluxe version recently and i thought maybe it actually wouldn’t hold up very well anymore, but I found it really does imo!
Quote this with what you would have said your game of the year was at the end of 2013, if you had one, and what you would say your favourite game of 2013 is now, if it differs
Localisations and early access count, remasters don't. Remakes depend
Refresher list: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
Localisations and early access count, remasters don't. Remakes depend
Refresher list: backloggd.com/games/lib/po...
December 19, 2025 at 10:48 AM
I think it would be Stanley Parable for both if i’m just thinking about how much I jus thoroughly enjoyed playing it.
I tried out the Ultra Deluxe version recently and i thought maybe it actually wouldn’t hold up very well anymore, but I found it really does imo!
I tried out the Ultra Deluxe version recently and i thought maybe it actually wouldn’t hold up very well anymore, but I found it really does imo!
Also with the Curia poll and the Freshwater Strategy poll now in, the Verian poll is looking very outlier-y now. Picked up on the opposition dropping in support but way more bullish on support for the government than anyone else by a lot.
December 18, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Also with the Curia poll and the Freshwater Strategy poll now in, the Verian poll is looking very outlier-y now. Picked up on the opposition dropping in support but way more bullish on support for the government than anyone else by a lot.
I highlighted that the Freshwater Strategy poll back in June showed leads for Labour on the key issues of the electorate: Cost of living and healthcare. Six months on, they remain the two key issues and Labour continues to lead
CoL: 15pt (+5)
Health: 12pt (-1)
www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...
CoL: 15pt (+5)
Health: 12pt (-1)
www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...
December 18, 2025 at 4:32 PM
I highlighted that the Freshwater Strategy poll back in June showed leads for Labour on the key issues of the electorate: Cost of living and healthcare. Six months on, they remain the two key issues and Labour continues to lead
CoL: 15pt (+5)
Health: 12pt (-1)
www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...
CoL: 15pt (+5)
Health: 12pt (-1)
www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...
Reposted by Conrad
Indiana’s Senate has voted AGAINST the GOP gerrymander that’d have locked in a 9-0 map.
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
December 11, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Indiana’s Senate has voted AGAINST the GOP gerrymander that’d have locked in a 9-0 map.
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
Reposted by Conrad
London Centric has got hold of Reform UK's internal candidate training plan for next year's local elections, where it hopes to make big gains in London.
"Don't drink and tweet", focus on bin collections, and copy the Lib Dems' tactics.
www.londoncentric.media/p/reform-uk-...
(£/free trial).
"Don't drink and tweet", focus on bin collections, and copy the Lib Dems' tactics.
www.londoncentric.media/p/reform-uk-...
(£/free trial).
"Don't drink and tweet": The leaked Reform UK plan to win in London
Plus: Is this Google Map the way to unlock London's real hidden gem restaurants, are you the driver who owes Hackney council £250,000, and is the Bakerloo finally getting new trains?
www.londoncentric.media
December 10, 2025 at 7:06 AM
London Centric has got hold of Reform UK's internal candidate training plan for next year's local elections, where it hopes to make big gains in London.
"Don't drink and tweet", focus on bin collections, and copy the Lib Dems' tactics.
www.londoncentric.media/p/reform-uk-...
(£/free trial).
"Don't drink and tweet", focus on bin collections, and copy the Lib Dems' tactics.
www.londoncentric.media/p/reform-uk-...
(£/free trial).
Errr they do realise that the thing they are refusing to criticise is pretty much white genocide conspiracy stuff right? Someone has told No. 10 this yeh?
Keir Starmer’s spokesman refuses to criticise Trump for calling Europe a group of “decaying” nations led by “weak” leaders
Asked about Trump saying European countries will no longer be “viable" thanks to migration, Keir Starmer’s spokesman says the UK is “returning control to our asylum system”
Asked about Trump saying European countries will no longer be “viable" thanks to migration, Keir Starmer’s spokesman says the UK is “returning control to our asylum system”
December 9, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Errr they do realise that the thing they are refusing to criticise is pretty much white genocide conspiracy stuff right? Someone has told No. 10 this yeh?
Reposted by Conrad
The government has delayed the 2026 mayoral elections in Greater Essex, Sussex and Brighton, Hampshire and the Solent, and Norfolk and Suffolk.
But the decision represents a major setback in a policy area in which had been making real progress www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/gove...
But the decision represents a major setback in a policy area in which had been making real progress www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/gove...
The government’s decision to delay mayoral elections cannot be justified on democratic or fairness grounds | Institute for Government
The government has postponed the May 2026 mayoral elections in Greater Essex, Sussex and Brighton, Hampshire and the Solent, and Norfolk and Suffolk.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
December 8, 2025 at 9:54 AM
The government has delayed the 2026 mayoral elections in Greater Essex, Sussex and Brighton, Hampshire and the Solent, and Norfolk and Suffolk.
But the decision represents a major setback in a policy area in which had been making real progress www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/gove...
But the decision represents a major setback in a policy area in which had been making real progress www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/gove...
🇳🇿This is the best poll for the government in over a year — at the moment still an outlier, but comes along an uptick in people thinking that the economic situation will get better over the next year. If that's something that holds then it's a big challenge for the opposition.
December 8, 2025 at 3:50 PM
🇳🇿This is the best poll for the government in over a year — at the moment still an outlier, but comes along an uptick in people thinking that the economic situation will get better over the next year. If that's something that holds then it's a big challenge for the opposition.
To me this makes the One Nation surge make way more sense. It's not just that voters on the right are fed with the Coalition — though that's definitely a big part. It's that One Nation's key issue, immigration, now taps into this anti-immigrant view that is shared by many more Aussies than before
4) Major shift in immigration views, lowest support for immigration since the 90s — 2022 now stands out as something of an oddity, probably the effects of the recovery from COVID
What stands out even more is a sharp decrease in positive attitude towards immigrant effects on Australia
What stands out even more is a sharp decrease in positive attitude towards immigrant effects on Australia
December 3, 2025 at 4:15 PM
To me this makes the One Nation surge make way more sense. It's not just that voters on the right are fed with the Coalition — though that's definitely a big part. It's that One Nation's key issue, immigration, now taps into this anti-immigrant view that is shared by many more Aussies than before
Some initial headline points from the Australian Election Study
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
December 3, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Some initial headline points from the Australian Election Study
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
Reposted by Conrad
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms
Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:56 AM
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
Possible effect from the fallout of the failed Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum?
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
November 27, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Possible effect from the fallout of the failed Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum?
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
Stokesyyyy. What a guy!!
November 21, 2025 at 9:51 AM
Stokesyyyy. What a guy!!
Reposted by Conrad
"Safeguarding data quality is no longer a single checkpoint but an end-to-end pipeline - one that reallocates substantial resources from sampling to continuous fraud monitoring"
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
www.poal.co.uk
November 18, 2025 at 8:04 AM
"Safeguarding data quality is no longer a single checkpoint but an end-to-end pipeline - one that reallocates substantial resources from sampling to continuous fraud monitoring"
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
Reposted by Conrad
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
Someone needs to tell the government that at this point they shouldn't just be trying to salvage the next election, they need to be seriously considering the possibility of Pasokification if they continue like this.
November 17, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Someone needs to tell the government that at this point they shouldn't just be trying to salvage the next election, they need to be seriously considering the possibility of Pasokification if they continue like this.
Reposted by Conrad
democrats love all their moderate, progressive, and top-of-the-distribution leaders <3
they can all live in harmony together under a big diverse tent if they restore regional party identities and stop the circular firing squad on nationalized media <3
they can all live in harmony together under a big diverse tent if they restore regional party identities and stop the circular firing squad on nationalized media <3
November 13, 2025 at 11:13 PM
democrats love all their moderate, progressive, and top-of-the-distribution leaders <3
they can all live in harmony together under a big diverse tent if they restore regional party identities and stop the circular firing squad on nationalized media <3
they can all live in harmony together under a big diverse tent if they restore regional party identities and stop the circular firing squad on nationalized media <3