Charles Kenny
@charlesjkenny.bsky.social
Fellow at the Center for Global Development, author of Getting Better and The Plague Cycle. (CGD doesn't have institutional positions, so don't blame it for mine).
November 20, 2025 at 1:15 PM
So focus aid in the poorest countries –promoting growth, fighting poverty and the diseases of poverty. That’s where donor country voters want aid to be spent and it is where aid works. Aid isn’t fairy dust, but in those countries it can still achieve miracles.
November 18, 2025 at 6:08 PM
So focus aid in the poorest countries –promoting growth, fighting poverty and the diseases of poverty. That’s where donor country voters want aid to be spent and it is where aid works. Aid isn’t fairy dust, but in those countries it can still achieve miracles.
Aid still has vital role: promoting development in the world’s poorest countries. In those economies, there is evidence that it can foster economic growth. And even aid critics support health assistance, plausibly saving millions of lives a year, concentrated in LICs
November 18, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Aid still has vital role: promoting development in the world’s poorest countries. In those economies, there is evidence that it can foster economic growth. And even aid critics support health assistance, plausibly saving millions of lives a year, concentrated in LICs
Deals involving private participation in transport, waste, energy, and water and sanitation infrastructure in developing countries as a whole peaked in 2012 at a total value of $157 billion. In 2023 it was just under one-half of that level.
November 18, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Deals involving private participation in transport, waste, energy, and water and sanitation infrastructure in developing countries as a whole peaked in 2012 at a total value of $157 billion. In 2023 it was just under one-half of that level.
At macro level, arguably a weak positive relationship between aid flows and FDI (more convincing in LICs). But limited role of aid in sustaining private flows suggested by the fact that, in 2023 and 2024, net private flows to developing countries as a group were negative.
November 18, 2025 at 6:05 PM
At macro level, arguably a weak positive relationship between aid flows and FDI (more convincing in LICs). But limited role of aid in sustaining private flows suggested by the fact that, in 2023 and 2024, net private flows to developing countries as a group were negative.
As to leverage, despite increased attention to domestic resource mobilization, the overall relationship between aid flows and domestic tax revenues remains, if anything, slightly negative.
November 18, 2025 at 6:04 PM
As to leverage, despite increased attention to domestic resource mobilization, the overall relationship between aid flows and domestic tax revenues remains, if anything, slightly negative.
ODA now on average worth less than a quarter of a percentage point of the income of middle-income countries (middle income economies that see aid receipts worth more than 10% of GNI : Ukraine, West Bank and Gaza, 11 small island states).
November 18, 2025 at 6:03 PM
ODA now on average worth less than a quarter of a percentage point of the income of middle-income countries (middle income economies that see aid receipts worth more than 10% of GNI : Ukraine, West Bank and Gaza, 11 small island states).
In 1960s, 55 countries saw aid receipts worth more than 10 percent of GNI. By 2021 the number receiving more than 10 percent of GNI in aid was down to 22 countries, or 17 percent of recipients.
November 18, 2025 at 6:02 PM
In 1960s, 55 countries saw aid receipts worth more than 10 percent of GNI. By 2021 the number receiving more than 10 percent of GNI in aid was down to 22 countries, or 17 percent of recipients.
2nd, that SDGs/climate mean we need a lot more investment backed by aid.
Thesis and antithesis achieve synthesis in idea billions in aid can foster trillions in investment by catalyzing, leveraging, and crowding in.
Sadly not.
Thesis and antithesis achieve synthesis in idea billions in aid can foster trillions in investment by catalyzing, leveraging, and crowding in.
Sadly not.
November 18, 2025 at 6:01 PM
2nd, that SDGs/climate mean we need a lot more investment backed by aid.
Thesis and antithesis achieve synthesis in idea billions in aid can foster trillions in investment by catalyzing, leveraging, and crowding in.
Sadly not.
Thesis and antithesis achieve synthesis in idea billions in aid can foster trillions in investment by catalyzing, leveraging, and crowding in.
Sadly not.
The last few years have seen many commentators in global development embracing two contradictory ideas at the same time. 1st, that we are increasingly in a “post-aid world”—at the aggregate, ODA is less significant compared to domestic taxes, private flows, and remittances.
November 18, 2025 at 5:59 PM
The last few years have seen many commentators in global development embracing two contradictory ideas at the same time. 1st, that we are increasingly in a “post-aid world”—at the aggregate, ODA is less significant compared to domestic taxes, private flows, and remittances.
Small island states received six times more adaptation finance per head than LDCs. This despite SIDS per capita income of $9700 8x higher than LDC average. There is virtually no relationship between adaptation finance per head and climate vulnerability indices.
www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
www.cgdev.org
November 10, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Small island states received six times more adaptation finance per head than LDCs. This despite SIDS per capita income of $9700 8x higher than LDC average. There is virtually no relationship between adaptation finance per head and climate vulnerability indices.
www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
Related: A new paper by Jonathan Beynon looks at link between vulnerability to climate change and who gets adaptation finance. Answer: most vulnerable to climate change are the poorest countries, the most generously provided with climate finance are small island states.
November 10, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Related: A new paper by Jonathan Beynon looks at link between vulnerability to climate change and who gets adaptation finance. Answer: most vulnerable to climate change are the poorest countries, the most generously provided with climate finance are small island states.
It also remains unclear from World Bank project documents why projects are tagged a given percentage climate finance. And it is clear that what is counted as ’mitigation finance’ is a terrible, awful, no-good measure of mitigation *impact.*
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 PM
It also remains unclear from World Bank project documents why projects are tagged a given percentage climate finance. And it is clear that what is counted as ’mitigation finance’ is a terrible, awful, no-good measure of mitigation *impact.*
And even at the World Bank, despite comparative transparency, it remains very difficult to understand what the impact of climate targets and shadow carbon prices and so on have been on Bank lending –let alone on greenhouse gasses averted.
November 10, 2025 at 6:05 PM
And even at the World Bank, despite comparative transparency, it remains very difficult to understand what the impact of climate targets and shadow carbon prices and so on have been on Bank lending –let alone on greenhouse gasses averted.
Suggests that, if (like me) you concerned that climate finance is eating effective development finance, that concern is probably less valid at the World Bank even if (i) it appears true more broadly (ii) the fear becomes bigger as climate finance grows.
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
The Crisis of Climate and Development Finance
On May 22, 2025, CGD senior fellow Charles Kenny delivered remarks at the Oxford Martin School, where he is a visiting fellow. His speech, “The Crisis of Climate and Development Finance," focused on t...
www.cgdev.org
November 10, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Suggests that, if (like me) you concerned that climate finance is eating effective development finance, that concern is probably less valid at the World Bank even if (i) it appears true more broadly (ii) the fear becomes bigger as climate finance grows.
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
But also no strong pattern that a higher mitigation finance share in a World Bank project is associated with a higher increase in economic returns when accounting for a shadow price of carbon: i.e., that a larger share of mitigation finance means a bigger mitigation impact.
November 10, 2025 at 6:03 PM
But also no strong pattern that a higher mitigation finance share in a World Bank project is associated with a higher increase in economic returns when accounting for a shadow price of carbon: i.e., that a larger share of mitigation finance means a bigger mitigation impact.
There doesn’t seem to be any strong relationship between the percentage of World Bank project finance tagged as climate finance and local economic rates of return (excluding the shadow price of carbon) –in that sense, there no climate-development tradeoff in Bank finance.
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
There doesn’t seem to be any strong relationship between the percentage of World Bank project finance tagged as climate finance and local economic rates of return (excluding the shadow price of carbon) –in that sense, there no climate-development tradeoff in Bank finance.
…or a whole project that passed the hurdle return purely on the grounds of the shadow cost of carbon --although there is some evidence of low-emissions investments that pass a hurdle rate, but may not be lowest cost in terms of energy production.
November 10, 2025 at 6:00 PM
…or a whole project that passed the hurdle return purely on the grounds of the shadow cost of carbon --although there is some evidence of low-emissions investments that pass a hurdle rate, but may not be lowest cost in terms of energy production.
Looking at all World Bank projects that include climate finance in 2024 and the predicted economic rate of return they would deliver, I didn’t find any project that would clearly have failed the hurdle rate of return taking into consideration shadow cost of carbon…
November 10, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Looking at all World Bank projects that include climate finance in 2024 and the predicted economic rate of return they would deliver, I didn’t find any project that would clearly have failed the hurdle rate of return taking into consideration shadow cost of carbon…
Turning to sectors, a World Bank focus on climate concerns would suggest more financing for infrastructure (and in particular electricity) and agriculture. But these sectors don’t account for an increasing percentage of World Bank financing over past 10 years (if anything the reverse) --see picture.
November 10, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Turning to sectors, a World Bank focus on climate concerns would suggest more financing for infrastructure (and in particular electricity) and agriculture. But these sectors don’t account for an increasing percentage of World Bank financing over past 10 years (if anything the reverse) --see picture.
You might expect a focus on mitigation would foster more lending in high-emitting upper middle income countries and an adaptation focus would push lending to the poorest countries that are most affected. But World Bank country allocation mechanisms haven’t really changed to account for climate.
November 10, 2025 at 5:55 PM
You might expect a focus on mitigation would foster more lending in high-emitting upper middle income countries and an adaptation focus would push lending to the poorest countries that are most affected. But World Bank country allocation mechanisms haven’t really changed to account for climate.
My paper asks ‘"do World Bank climate targets and carbon prices change the World Bank portfolio?" and comes back with the answer “maybe yes, but at most marginally.”
www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
www.cgdev.org
November 10, 2025 at 5:54 PM
My paper asks ‘"do World Bank climate targets and carbon prices change the World Bank portfolio?" and comes back with the answer “maybe yes, but at most marginally.”
www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...