Charles Kenny
@charlesjkenny.bsky.social
Fellow at the Center for Global Development, author of Getting Better and The Plague Cycle. (CGD doesn't have institutional positions, so don't blame it for mine).
ODA now on average worth less than a quarter of a percentage point of the income of middle-income countries (middle income economies that see aid receipts worth more than 10% of GNI : Ukraine, West Bank and Gaza, 11 small island states).
November 18, 2025 at 6:03 PM
ODA now on average worth less than a quarter of a percentage point of the income of middle-income countries (middle income economies that see aid receipts worth more than 10% of GNI : Ukraine, West Bank and Gaza, 11 small island states).
In 1960s, 55 countries saw aid receipts worth more than 10 percent of GNI. By 2021 the number receiving more than 10 percent of GNI in aid was down to 22 countries, or 17 percent of recipients.
November 18, 2025 at 6:02 PM
In 1960s, 55 countries saw aid receipts worth more than 10 percent of GNI. By 2021 the number receiving more than 10 percent of GNI in aid was down to 22 countries, or 17 percent of recipients.
There doesn’t seem to be any strong relationship between the percentage of World Bank project finance tagged as climate finance and local economic rates of return (excluding the shadow price of carbon) –in that sense, there no climate-development tradeoff in Bank finance.
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
There doesn’t seem to be any strong relationship between the percentage of World Bank project finance tagged as climate finance and local economic rates of return (excluding the shadow price of carbon) –in that sense, there no climate-development tradeoff in Bank finance.
Turning to sectors, a World Bank focus on climate concerns would suggest more financing for infrastructure (and in particular electricity) and agriculture. But these sectors don’t account for an increasing percentage of World Bank financing over past 10 years (if anything the reverse) --see picture.
November 10, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Turning to sectors, a World Bank focus on climate concerns would suggest more financing for infrastructure (and in particular electricity) and agriculture. But these sectors don’t account for an increasing percentage of World Bank financing over past 10 years (if anything the reverse) --see picture.
Most World Bank mitigation finance commitments are for projects that do not track impact on GHG emissions as a performance indicator – and just 4% of commitments to LICs with a mitigation component track GHG emissions.
November 10, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Most World Bank mitigation finance commitments are for projects that do not track impact on GHG emissions as a performance indicator – and just 4% of commitments to LICs with a mitigation component track GHG emissions.
5. Better still? Moving to lending modalities that don't involve direct bank-financed procurement at all: payment for results or policy lending. P4R (green) considerably outperforms average operation (yellow) says World Bank independent evaluation group.
October 31, 2025 at 6:46 PM
5. Better still? Moving to lending modalities that don't involve direct bank-financed procurement at all: payment for results or policy lending. P4R (green) considerably outperforms average operation (yellow) says World Bank independent evaluation group.
3. These are the very countries where poorly designed import substitution is most risky --because local markets simply do not produce many goods (which is why they tend to have larger shares of foreign winners in bid contracts)
October 28, 2025 at 7:08 PM
3. These are the very countries where poorly designed import substitution is most risky --because local markets simply do not produce many goods (which is why they tend to have larger shares of foreign winners in bid contracts)
2. MDB-financed procurement is only a significant part of the local market in the very smallest of MDB client countries (see graph).
October 28, 2025 at 7:08 PM
2. MDB-financed procurement is only a significant part of the local market in the very smallest of MDB client countries (see graph).
The World Bank Group is planning to reorganize its research functions. The results could be even uglier than the powerpoint: an end to independent research at the institution and conflicts of interest all over...
New blog with @eeshani.bsky.social, link in reply.
New blog with @eeshani.bsky.social, link in reply.
October 24, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The World Bank Group is planning to reorganize its research functions. The results could be even uglier than the powerpoint: an end to independent research at the institution and conflicts of interest all over...
New blog with @eeshani.bsky.social, link in reply.
New blog with @eeshani.bsky.social, link in reply.
New CGD note by Ramona Godbole on the status of PEPFAR delivery.
Picture: in Uganda, whether or not there have (likely) been big disruptions to PEPFAR provision of support/HIV meds depends if you happen to live in a district where USAID managed delivery awards rather than CDC.
Picture: in Uganda, whether or not there have (likely) been big disruptions to PEPFAR provision of support/HIV meds depends if you happen to live in a district where USAID managed delivery awards rather than CDC.
October 20, 2025 at 6:00 PM
New CGD note by Ramona Godbole on the status of PEPFAR delivery.
Picture: in Uganda, whether or not there have (likely) been big disruptions to PEPFAR provision of support/HIV meds depends if you happen to live in a district where USAID managed delivery awards rather than CDC.
Picture: in Uganda, whether or not there have (likely) been big disruptions to PEPFAR provision of support/HIV meds depends if you happen to live in a district where USAID managed delivery awards rather than CDC.
Can you tell what an aid project is actually meant to be doing? Average words per project description by donor. Japan's are the length of two haiku, US gets all the way to 23 words.
October 16, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Can you tell what an aid project is actually meant to be doing? Average words per project description by donor. Japan's are the length of two haiku, US gets all the way to 23 words.
Which countries actually follow OECD guidance when it comes to Rio markers for climate change, biodiversity, and desertification? Japan and France appear to consider the guidance optional.
October 16, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Which countries actually follow OECD guidance when it comes to Rio markers for climate change, biodiversity, and desertification? Japan and France appear to consider the guidance optional.
oof.
Short thread on new blog + paper by @euanritchie on ODA data.
Below: Because EU's own borrowing costs fell in 2022, loans to developing countries with *exactly the same terms* stopped being counted as other official flows, ecame ODA --no more money, lots more reported aid.
Short thread on new blog + paper by @euanritchie on ODA data.
Below: Because EU's own borrowing costs fell in 2022, loans to developing countries with *exactly the same terms* stopped being counted as other official flows, ecame ODA --no more money, lots more reported aid.
October 16, 2025 at 12:03 PM
oof.
Short thread on new blog + paper by @euanritchie on ODA data.
Below: Because EU's own borrowing costs fell in 2022, loans to developing countries with *exactly the same terms* stopped being counted as other official flows, ecame ODA --no more money, lots more reported aid.
Short thread on new blog + paper by @euanritchie on ODA data.
Below: Because EU's own borrowing costs fell in 2022, loans to developing countries with *exactly the same terms* stopped being counted as other official flows, ecame ODA --no more money, lots more reported aid.
See also @eeshani.bsky.social accompanying blog on Margaret Bourke-White’s haunting photographs of cholera outbreaks during the partition of India.
www.cgdev.org/blog/human-c...
www.cgdev.org/blog/human-c...
October 9, 2025 at 11:49 AM
See also @eeshani.bsky.social accompanying blog on Margaret Bourke-White’s haunting photographs of cholera outbreaks during the partition of India.
www.cgdev.org/blog/human-c...
www.cgdev.org/blog/human-c...
DRC. Orange: cholera deaths. Green: approximate US outlays for WASH (tan: cancelled WASH project obligations).
October 9, 2025 at 11:39 AM
DRC. Orange: cholera deaths. Green: approximate US outlays for WASH (tan: cancelled WASH project obligations).
Sudan. Orange: cholera deaths. Green: approximate US outlays for WASH.
October 9, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Sudan. Orange: cholera deaths. Green: approximate US outlays for WASH.
Previously (frequently, not always), cholera outbreaks in region were followed by rising US assistance for water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). Now: not.
This in South Sudan. Orange: cholera deaths. Green: approximate US outlays for WASH.
This in South Sudan. Orange: cholera deaths. Green: approximate US outlays for WASH.
October 9, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Previously (frequently, not always), cholera outbreaks in region were followed by rising US assistance for water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). Now: not.
This in South Sudan. Orange: cholera deaths. Green: approximate US outlays for WASH.
This in South Sudan. Orange: cholera deaths. Green: approximate US outlays for WASH.
Blog with CGD colleagues: Cholera in Africa: Rising Deaths, Shrinking US Aid.
Africa seeing rising cholera deaths, but US foreign assistance not responding...
Africa seeing rising cholera deaths, but US foreign assistance not responding...
October 9, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Blog with CGD colleagues: Cholera in Africa: Rising Deaths, Shrinking US Aid.
Africa seeing rising cholera deaths, but US foreign assistance not responding...
Africa seeing rising cholera deaths, but US foreign assistance not responding...
From new ODI multilateral bank client survey.
IADB Research Department: take a bow.
media.odi.org/documents/Ar...
IADB Research Department: take a bow.
media.odi.org/documents/Ar...
October 7, 2025 at 2:20 PM
From new ODI multilateral bank client survey.
IADB Research Department: take a bow.
media.odi.org/documents/Ar...
IADB Research Department: take a bow.
media.odi.org/documents/Ar...
At its peak, about 1 in 7 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa caused by HIV/AIDS. It is now one in 20. PEPFAR takes a lot of credit. Since the launch of PMI in 2005, death rates from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa are down by a third. This is the time to double down, not walk away.
October 6, 2025 at 5:48 PM
At its peak, about 1 in 7 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa caused by HIV/AIDS. It is now one in 20. PEPFAR takes a lot of credit. Since the launch of PMI in 2005, death rates from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa are down by a third. This is the time to double down, not walk away.
This, from a survey paid for by Rockefeller Foundation, interesting on who trusts which international organizations worldwide....
September 29, 2025 at 2:32 PM
This, from a survey paid for by Rockefeller Foundation, interesting on who trusts which international organizations worldwide....
Favorite World Bank graph of all time.
Now I know your fancy econometricians with their highfalutin' views on causality and its demonstration might want to argue, but sometimes evidence speaks for itself. Almost Perfectly matches a graph of global GNI over time and the conclusion is obvious.
Now I know your fancy econometricians with their highfalutin' views on causality and its demonstration might want to argue, but sometimes evidence speaks for itself. Almost Perfectly matches a graph of global GNI over time and the conclusion is obvious.
September 25, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Favorite World Bank graph of all time.
Now I know your fancy econometricians with their highfalutin' views on causality and its demonstration might want to argue, but sometimes evidence speaks for itself. Almost Perfectly matches a graph of global GNI over time and the conclusion is obvious.
Now I know your fancy econometricians with their highfalutin' views on causality and its demonstration might want to argue, but sometimes evidence speaks for itself. Almost Perfectly matches a graph of global GNI over time and the conclusion is obvious.
Variation of impacts of the award terminations at the national level. In Malawi, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Uganda, and the DRC, terminated PEPFAR awards accounted for 25-50% of planned resources. In South Africa, terminated awards accounted for more than 75 percent of the total.
September 17, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Variation of impacts of the award terminations at the national level. In Malawi, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Uganda, and the DRC, terminated PEPFAR awards accounted for 25-50% of planned resources. In South Africa, terminated awards accounted for more than 75 percent of the total.
23% of the budget for HIV treatment programming, including drugs, laboratory services, and HIV/TB care, was directed to cancelled or unknown status awards. Terminated USAID awards were responsible for supporting an estimated 2.3 million people on lifesaving treatment.
September 17, 2025 at 5:37 PM
23% of the budget for HIV treatment programming, including drugs, laboratory services, and HIV/TB care, was directed to cancelled or unknown status awards. Terminated USAID awards were responsible for supporting an estimated 2.3 million people on lifesaving treatment.
New note on the status of PEPFAR from Ramona Godbole, formerly of USAID, for @CGDev.
24% by value of USAID’s PEPFAR awards have been reported terminated, including 16% lifesaving HIV programming.
Thread and link below.
24% by value of USAID’s PEPFAR awards have been reported terminated, including 16% lifesaving HIV programming.
Thread and link below.
September 17, 2025 at 5:35 PM
New note on the status of PEPFAR from Ramona Godbole, formerly of USAID, for @CGDev.
24% by value of USAID’s PEPFAR awards have been reported terminated, including 16% lifesaving HIV programming.
Thread and link below.
24% by value of USAID’s PEPFAR awards have been reported terminated, including 16% lifesaving HIV programming.
Thread and link below.