Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
Catastrophe / climate risk / data viz at OAK Re
Visiting Research Fellow & PhD @ University of Reading
Associate Editor RMetS Weather. FRMetS.
Otherwise eating noodle soup or watching cricket
Own opinions etc. etc.
Visiting Research Fellow & PhD @ University of Reading
Associate Editor RMetS Weather. FRMetS.
Otherwise eating noodle soup or watching cricket
Own opinions etc. etc.
But not the majority of his career on English wickets (and are English wickets flat compared to the rest of the world?) - he's played more away than home. But the picture still isn't pretty.
November 22, 2025 at 11:51 AM
But not the majority of his career on English wickets (and are English wickets flat compared to the rest of the world?) - he's played more away than home. But the picture still isn't pretty.
Zak Crawley now has the lowest batting average in Test history for anyone opening the innings who's played more than 50 matches. I appreciate there's no like-for-like replacement out there, but hasn't this probably run its course now? #AskGeorge
November 22, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Zak Crawley now has the lowest batting average in Test history for anyone opening the innings who's played more than 50 matches. I appreciate there's no like-for-like replacement out there, but hasn't this probably run its course now? #AskGeorge
Probably for the 2nd time this winter already I've thought "an extra 2-3 degrees lower and this would have been fun"... sod's law it'll be roaring westerlies by January.
November 21, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Probably for the 2nd time this winter already I've thought "an extra 2-3 degrees lower and this would have been fun"... sod's law it'll be roaring westerlies by January.
Dewpoints probably not low enough further East. Woken by two extremely close lightning strikes around 6am in Deal, though. Hail / graupel and maybe sleet at a generous push.
November 21, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Dewpoints probably not low enough further East. Woken by two extremely close lightning strikes around 6am in Deal, though. Hail / graupel and maybe sleet at a generous push.
A bit of discussion whether the percentage of storms making landfall as hurricanes is static or not using counterfactual analysis. Thanks to a) modelling experts Reask and b) AI without which I wouldn't be able to produce pretty-looking graphs like this one.
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
November 20, 2025 at 11:51 AM
A bit of discussion whether the percentage of storms making landfall as hurricanes is static or not using counterfactual analysis. Thanks to a) modelling experts Reask and b) AI without which I wouldn't be able to produce pretty-looking graphs like this one.
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
I mean you could at least have the decency to throw a bit of sleet into the mix but with a dewpoint of 4c that ain't happening. #uksnow CT14 0/10
November 19, 2025 at 11:48 AM
I mean you could at least have the decency to throw a bit of sleet into the mix but with a dewpoint of 4c that ain't happening. #uksnow CT14 0/10
When I'm not making graphs in an attempt to look clever, I'm eating noodle soups. Here's the Blue Pelican in Deal, Kent which is knocking out a ridiculously good ramen on Sundays now and is arguably the best restaurant in Kent in my heavily biased opinion. Back to weather and catastrophes tomorrow.
November 16, 2025 at 4:08 PM
When I'm not making graphs in an attempt to look clever, I'm eating noodle soups. Here's the Blue Pelican in Deal, Kent which is knocking out a ridiculously good ramen on Sundays now and is arguably the best restaurant in Kent in my heavily biased opinion. Back to weather and catastrophes tomorrow.
Bit of support from the ensembles (this is Canterbury so a little inland)
November 16, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Bit of support from the ensembles (this is Canterbury so a little inland)
Well done to the MetDesk team for their wxcharts.com update, excellent stuff.
November 15, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Well done to the MetDesk team for their wxcharts.com update, excellent stuff.
Another stand-out season for me - the amount of time spent by hurricane tracks over extra-warm sea probably the 5th highest year since the 1950s, behind the "big" years of 2023, 2024, 2010 and 2005. We just got lucky with the landfalls again...
November 15, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Another stand-out season for me - the amount of time spent by hurricane tracks over extra-warm sea probably the 5th highest year since the 1950s, behind the "big" years of 2023, 2024, 2010 and 2005. We just got lucky with the landfalls again...
Not just 500 miles, 505 miles. Did someone get a ruler out?
#delusionalexactitude
#delusionalexactitude
November 14, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Not just 500 miles, 505 miles. Did someone get a ruler out?
#delusionalexactitude
#delusionalexactitude
The US insured losses will end up zero, but still some interesting things to emerge from 2025 hurricane season. Around 35% of NHC analyses as a hurricane were Cat 4 or 5. Am sure present-day numbers are partly influenced by more recon flights, but it's still food for thought.
November 12, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The US insured losses will end up zero, but still some interesting things to emerge from 2025 hurricane season. Around 35% of NHC analyses as a hurricane were Cat 4 or 5. Am sure present-day numbers are partly influenced by more recon flights, but it's still food for thought.
And looking at climatologically - for London at least - we're reaching the sort of values that we reached at the end of the year in the 1980s by mid-July in the 2020s...
November 5, 2025 at 1:55 PM
And looking at climatologically - for London at least - we're reaching the sort of values that we reached at the end of the year in the 1980s by mid-July in the 2020s...
Wondered how warm it was this year from a "cumulative excess temperature above 20c" standpoint. Turns out 3rd warmest in London since 1970. Left: how uncannily close 2025 and 1976 traces are! Right: UK-wide: a lot of E/SE Eng was ranked top 3 year for this value, most of Eng & Wales top 10 ranked.
November 5, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Wondered how warm it was this year from a "cumulative excess temperature above 20c" standpoint. Turns out 3rd warmest in London since 1970. Left: how uncannily close 2025 and 1976 traces are! Right: UK-wide: a lot of E/SE Eng was ranked top 3 year for this value, most of Eng & Wales top 10 ranked.
I've not looked yet but I wonder in the wash-up in the mean whether...
October 31, 2025 at 10:01 PM
I've not looked yet but I wonder in the wash-up in the mean whether...
Only one taking a chance...
October 28, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Only one taking a chance...
Hot take, but part of the world's seas in peak season where #Melissa grew has seen very little change in crude conditions for rapid cyclogenesis (mid-level moisture, shear < 5 m/s, SSTs > 28c) recently. A narrative could be edge-of-season increases in favourable conditions: e.g. 2nd half of Oct.
October 27, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Hot take, but part of the world's seas in peak season where #Melissa grew has seen very little change in crude conditions for rapid cyclogenesis (mid-level moisture, shear < 5 m/s, SSTs > 28c) recently. A narrative could be edge-of-season increases in favourable conditions: e.g. 2nd half of Oct.
Current #Melissa eye diameter of 10nm & 45km wide hurricane force winds projected along current track wouldn't bring much wind impact to Kingston (SE Jamaica). So any eyewall replacement and widening of the storm could bring Kingston into play. But the surge is another beast altogether...
October 27, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Current #Melissa eye diameter of 10nm & 45km wide hurricane force winds projected along current track wouldn't bring much wind impact to Kingston (SE Jamaica). So any eyewall replacement and widening of the storm could bring Kingston into play. But the surge is another beast altogether...
A few thoughts on #Melissa from historical and climate context: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
October 27, 2025 at 11:28 AM
A few thoughts on #Melissa from historical and climate context: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
SSTs in the region where #Melissa has been developing are well above average - even compared to the past 30 years of warmer sea. Interestingly, also shear in the part of the world has been fairly consistently low (compared to 1950 onwards) since August... bit of a "loaded gun" you could argue...
October 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
SSTs in the region where #Melissa has been developing are well above average - even compared to the past 30 years of warmer sea. Interestingly, also shear in the part of the world has been fairly consistently low (compared to 1950 onwards) since August... bit of a "loaded gun" you could argue...
Looking at history post 25th Oct (when #Melissa got going) as of 06Z/26th it's the 3rd fastest rapid deepener (12h windspeed delta) from that date onwards. Late season warm seas & activity a real talking point for those of us working to understanding present-day hurricane risk for their companies.
October 26, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Looking at history post 25th Oct (when #Melissa got going) as of 06Z/26th it's the 3rd fastest rapid deepener (12h windspeed delta) from that date onwards. Late season warm seas & activity a real talking point for those of us working to understanding present-day hurricane risk for their companies.
I can see a 25kt 12hr intensification of #Melissa - pretty good going for this time of year or later, but by no means unprecedented as left chart of max 12h intensification after this day of the year in HURDAT shows. And let's not forget how wild late-season 2020 was for rapid intensification.
October 25, 2025 at 10:00 AM
I can see a 25kt 12hr intensification of #Melissa - pretty good going for this time of year or later, but by no means unprecedented as left chart of max 12h intensification after this day of the year in HURDAT shows. And let's not forget how wild late-season 2020 was for rapid intensification.
Unsurprisingly the longer #Melissa takes to make the turn, the longer it spends over deep warm seas and the more intense it gets. Contrast the tracks from ECMWF Ensembles that hit the eastern side of Jamaica vs western side... (beautiful display of data from deepmind.google.com/science/weat...)
October 24, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Unsurprisingly the longer #Melissa takes to make the turn, the longer it spends over deep warm seas and the more intense it gets. Contrast the tracks from ECMWF Ensembles that hit the eastern side of Jamaica vs western side... (beautiful display of data from deepmind.google.com/science/weat...)
Interestingly, but somewhat unsurprisingly, from that last chart, absolutely nowhere in the UK gets their strongest winds from a NE or E wind. The nearest ERA gridpoint to Deal shows similarly predictably predominantly S or W winds have all the notably strong (>30 m/s) gusts.
October 24, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Interestingly, but somewhat unsurprisingly, from that last chart, absolutely nowhere in the UK gets their strongest winds from a NE or E wind. The nearest ERA gridpoint to Deal shows similarly predictably predominantly S or W winds have all the notably strong (>30 m/s) gusts.
A discussion with a photographer friend in Deal trying to snap Deal Pier in strong winds and very high tide said that Benjamin was nothing on the sea on 26 Feb 2024 in a strong easterly. Wasn't a named storm, but got me thinking about what wind direction causes strongest winds in the UK:
October 24, 2025 at 10:16 PM
A discussion with a photographer friend in Deal trying to snap Deal Pier in strong winds and very high tide said that Benjamin was nothing on the sea on 26 Feb 2024 in a strong easterly. Wasn't a named storm, but got me thinking about what wind direction causes strongest winds in the UK: